Interesting note from the Topps Q&A at The National

[steen101984]

Collectors will never stop opening Upper Deck products. They are to well known and have been in the game since it started. As a producer of hockey cards as a whole Upper Deck is absolutely a winner. Essentially every piece of innovation put into sports cards has been done by Upper Deck. Shields, Property Of's, Ice Rookies, Draft Boards etc. Other companies that make other sports don't really have any cool memorabilia subsets.

I am all for licensed companies getting the exclusives but when you have multiple companies with different players on their books it really puts the collector at a disadvantage. If I collect Gretzky and Lemieux for example and two separate companies own their rights as a collector I need to open two separate brands to potentially get what I want. Not good.

Lastly, Yes Upper Deck keeps recycling the same old players. Guys like Crosby,Malkin, Stamkos,Mcdavid and Kane are very in demand and are what drives people to buy hobby boxes. Including your non star players like 3-4th liners and enforcers you will for sure appeal to more people but you will further destroy a hobby boxes expected value which will lead to lower sales across the board. A strong tighter checklist is far superior to a weak expanded one.

They started in 1990. That's far from being in it since the beginning. They've definitely done some revolutionary stuff but when was their last breakthrough innovation? Every product is the same. Tons of event worn, sticker rookie cards. Sprinkled with a few elite veteran autos/patches/jerseys and a whole bunch of filler.

Speaking of innovation, the first shield cards i can find on Beckett are from 1999 LEAF certified in Football. UD didn't jump on the bandwagon until 03-04. Meanwhile the rest of those were all created when they had some form of competition and needed to stay relevant. Competition is better for UD too because they step up their game to it.

 

[Mauri]

For me it is one and same if Topps comes back. I just want to kill the monopoly. If it is with Topps being added, great, if with someone else, no problem.

 

[Mauri]

And finally, to your last point, that would be great if the card content involved all the players, but even UD doesn't do that on average (OPC is the closest).

I think Compendium is closer with 900 (well, not quite, but 890+ or something like that) players.

 

[piper1]

I think Compendium is closer with 900 (well, not quite, but 890+ or something like that) players.

If only you didn't have to cough up an organ or two to get it.

 

[steen101984]

I think Compendium is closer with 900 (well, not quite, but 890+ or something like that) players.

Thats not a real set though. I'm pretty sure you can't have the actual base cards shipped to you unless they've been upgraded.

 

[aflamesfan]

If only you didn't have to cough up an organ or two to get it.

How much do you pay for your organs? Maybe you need to find a better organ dealer.

Compendium Blues which is the ones you can get shipped to you costs $0.33-0.40 for most of the vets. And about double that for rookies. You'll have to pay more for the good players but such is the nature of the hobby.

 

[THSN]

One more thing killing value are the rapid costs increases after release at retail. This year there have been a handful of products that have shot up $30-$40 a week after release. This is the fault of the retailer but at the end of the day it hurts the consumer.

How in the world is it the retailer's fault? We're not jacking our prices up just for giggles. In some instances, prices increased $30-$40 for us within 24 hours of the product coming out. If we want to keep stocking it, are we supposed to lose money?

 

[aflamesfan]

How in the world is it the retailer's fault? We're not jacking our prices up just for giggles. In some instances, prices increased $30-$40 for us within 24 hours of the product coming out. If we want to keep stocking it, are we supposed to lose money?

I know my LCS makes his initial pre-order and cannot order again at the same price even before the product comes out.

For the product that doesn't sell, the distributor rarely lowers the price. They play both ends of the game, raise prices when the product is hot, but keeps prices stable on product that doesn't move. Instead they pressure you buy the low demand product for the right to buy some of the hot product.

 

[jogesc2]

I know my LCS makes his initial pre-order and cannot order again at the same price even before the product comes out.

For the product that doesn't sell, the distributor rarely lowers the price. They play both ends of the game, raise prices when the product is hot, but keeps prices stable on product that doesn't move. Instead they pressure you buy the low demand product for the right to buy some of the hot product.

So distributors never reduce the price of stuff that doesn't sell? They just sit on it forever?

I know 2015/16 OPC sat at it's release price, about $90 CDN, for at least the first year it was out. Now D&A has it for $25 US a box.

 

[aflamesfan]

So distributors never reduce the price of stuff that doesn't sell? They just sit on it forever?

I know 2015/16 OPC sat at it's release price, about $90 CDN, for at least the first year it was out. Now D&A has it for $25 US a box.

I cannot answer that as I'm not a retailer. I know I've asked my LCS to order low demand product such as 13/14 Black Diamond, 15/16 Champs, and he told me his cost to order that is higher than the current market price.

The retailers are most likely taking a lost on those products and just want it off the shelves.

 

[cremona71]

How in the world is it the retailer's fault? We're not jacking our prices up just for giggles. In some instances, prices increased $30-$40 for us within 24 hours of the product coming out. If we want to keep stocking it, are we supposed to lose money?

I know the business because I am neck deep in it. For a new store it will be harder because they lack capital to bring in the volume they need. However if money is not an issue there should be ZERO reason why you should need a restock on product within 48 hours. Allocated products aside if you need to restock on Friday for the weekend when the product has just been released on Wednesday the store owner needs to look at how they pre-order their products.

 

[Hama]

I know the business because I am neck deep in it. For a new store it will be harder because they lack capital to bring in the volume they need. However if money is not an issue there should be ZERO reason why you should need a restock on product within 48 hours. Allocated products aside if you need to restock on Friday for the weekend when the product has just been released on Wednesday the store owner needs to look at how they pre-order their products.

It's not that easy when a pre-order is due about 2-3 months before a product comes out. Take a look at 2017 baseball - until Judge and Bellinger came along - it wasn't a GREAT year - yeah you had Moncada and Benintendi, who in the future will be great players, but no one saw Judge coming on like this in the first half, especially when he hit under .200 in his two months in the majors last year.

Add the fact that Bellinger was called up right around when the deadline for ordering it came.

When you're potentially committing thousands of dollars and you see a product that hasn't done well in the past - you're not going to pre-order 25 cases just to see 15 of them still sitting in the store 6 months after release. A store can order 20 cases of SPA, only get 10 through allocation, sell out within a week of release and then find that more SPA is available, but at a 20% increase within days of release. How is a dealer, especially if they're smaller relative to some of the largest wax sellers in the country able to compete with that? The point being - everyone, even the largest dealers have their limits, because it is still a matter of deploying the capital in a manner most beneficial to the business - unless that dealer much more capital that they can afford to sit on that much more product

 

[creasecollector]

I think Compendium is closer with 900 (well, not quite, but 890+ or something like that) players.

Right. Forgot about that. But historically speaking, up until this year, a set that encompassed that kind of player selection wasn't around. This is why I liked Compendium so much (hats off to UD!). A lot of stuff for everyone. Good for collectors.

 

[steen101984]

So distributors never reduce the price of stuff that doesn't sell? They just sit on it forever?

I know 2015/16 OPC sat at it's release price, about $90 CDN, for at least the first year it was out. Now D&A has it for $25 US a box.

That's not the case they do discount it but it can take awhile, and i find it depends on how much they have. I owned a store for 2 years and there were some older products that they had available the whole time and the price never changed. Others went down drastically after several months or longer.

 

[steen101984]

It's not that easy when a pre-order is due about 2-3 months before a product comes out. Take a look at 2017 baseball - until Judge and Bellinger came along - it wasn't a GREAT year - yeah you had Moncada and Benintendi, who in the future will be great players, but no one saw Judge coming on like this in the first half, especially when he hit under .200 in his two months in the majors last year.

Add the fact that Bellinger was called up right around when the deadline for ordering it came.

When you're potentially committing thousands of dollars and you see a product that hasn't done well in the past - you're not going to pre-order 25 cases just to see 15 of them still sitting in the store 6 months after release. A store can order 20 cases of SPA, only get 10 through allocation, sell out within a week of release and then find that more SPA is available, but at a 20% increase within days of release. How is a dealer, especially if they're smaller relative to some of the largest wax sellers in the country able to compete with that? The point being - everyone, even the largest dealers have their limits, because it is still a matter of deploying the capital in a manner most beneficial to the business - unless that dealer much more capital that they can afford to sit on that much more product

This is exactly right and to add to it it's hard to run out of SPA or Series 1 that fast but some products that are newer or don't have the track record are super hard to gauge when you need to pre-order 3-4 moths in advance and (sometimes longer). I can tell you that ice released in April and the pre-orders were due in early December.

 

[jogesc2]

That's not the case they do discount it but it can take awhile, and i find it depends on how much they have. I owned a store for 2 years and there were some older products that they had available the whole time and the price never changed. Others went down drastically after several months or longer.

I'm guessing it has to do with how much they're sitting on then. If they have 10 cases of product they'll sit on it for a while, if they have 100 cases of product that's not moving then they'll blow it out.

 

[THSN]

I know the business because I am neck deep in it. For a new store it will be harder because they lack capital to bring in the volume they need. However if money is not an issue there should be ZERO reason why you should need a restock on product within 48 hours. Allocated products aside if you need to restock on Friday for the weekend when the product has just been released on Wednesday the store owner needs to look at how they pre-order their products.

I never said I restocked in 48 hours. I said our restock prices were raised that quickly. And we do not raise box prices until we have run out of our original stock, which is at a minimum double-digit cases of every product up through mid-tier stuff.

But when I see stuff begin to fly off the shelves the day of release and more quickly than anticipated and think, "Crap, maybe I should grab a few more cases of this," then check the price and it's 20-30% higher? Explain to me again how that's the retailer's fault.

And if your answer is to double your preorder, let me know how cheaply you're willing to sell me the 20 cases of 2015-16 Portfolio you have in your stock room.

 

[cremona71]

I never said I restocked in 48 hours. I said our restock prices were raised that quickly. And we do not raise box prices until we have run out of our original stock, which is at a minimum double-digit cases of every product up through mid-tier stuff.

But when I see stuff begin to fly off the shelves the day of release and more quickly than anticipated and think, "Crap, maybe I should grab a few more cases of this," then check the price and it's 20-30% higher? Explain to me again how that's the retailer's fault.

And if your answer is to double your preorder, let me know how cheaply you're willing to sell me the 20 cases of 2015-16 Portfolio you have in your stock room.

Again, a store cannot blame anyone but themselves if they have to adjust costs due to a restock. You just said that product was moving faster then anticipated which means the buyers intuition was wrong. Also you are not forced to bring in any product. If a products cost is now what your competition is selling it for it might be the right call to just not bring it in.

Lastly, distribution is not a holding warehouse for its stores. Once they fill a customers pre-order they can do what they like with their pricing. On the hot products they need to charge more post pre-order to offset the loss they take on other products.

In short, if you plan to bring a product in post pre-order to make minimal margin I would just save that capital and buy Pokemon.

 

[aflamesfan]

Again, a store cannot blame anyone but themselves if they have to adjust costs due to a restock. You just said that product was moving faster then anticipated which means the buyers intuition was wrong. Also you are not forced to bring in any product. If a products cost is now what your competition is selling it for it might be the right call to just not bring it in.

Lastly, distribution is not a holding warehouse for its stores. Once they fill a customers pre-order they can do what they like with their pricing. On the hot products they need to charge more post pre-order to offset the loss they take on other products.

In short, if you plan to bring a product in post pre-order to make minimal margin I would just save that capital and buy Pokemon.

And here lies the crux of the matter.

You say the retailer should make a 100% perfect guess on how much inventory they should hold for their product. Too little, and they will have to order more and make minimal margin. Too much, and they sit on stock and eventually blow it out to get a percentage of their capital back.

But your final point - "In short, if you plan to bring a product in post pre-order to make minimal margin I would just save that capital and buy Pokemon"

That is a fair and solid point. I actually hope all of the retailers take your advice on that. I rather have the distributors sit on the product then the shop owners. At least the distributors have the capital to do that. MTG and Pokemon are where the money is at. Just have stores of MTG/Pokemon, that happen to have Hockey product on release day.

OH wait, I guess that is terrible for the hockey hobby. Less and less people will want to come in and buy product because there would be none. Although the high prices are already doing that at the local shops here. Our trade nights have seen significantly less wax broken due to the high costs.

In my opinion, I hope E-pack gets more popular and pushes UD toward that model instead of the traditional one. At least the price is stable and set at their MSRP. I'm still able to get Series 1 for $89.99 USD on ePack as compared to $160 CDN + Tax locally. Even if you factor in the true costs of shipping the epacks cards to me, I'm still ahead with today's exchange rate of 1.25718. Granted, next year will be different and ePack will be considerably more expensive than what it will be locally since I'm guessing the demand will be lower.

With all that being said, I'm just a customer, that gets to talk to my LCS a bunch. You're on the other side of things and I don't get to interact with distributors/wholesalers to understand your plight. So I only have half the story.

 

[guy_hobby]

Again, a store cannot blame anyone but themselves if they have to adjust costs due to a restock. You just said that product was moving faster then anticipated which means the buyers intuition was wrong. Also you are not forced to bring in any product. If a products cost is now what your competition is selling it for it might be the right call to just not bring it in.

Lastly, distribution is not a holding warehouse for its stores. Once they fill a customers pre-order they can do what they like with their pricing. On the hot products they need to charge more post pre-order to offset the loss they take on other products.

In short, if you plan to bring a product in post pre-order to make minimal margin I would just save that capital and buy Pokemon.

Distribution SHOULD be a holding warehouse for retail stores. Their margins should hold steady no matter the hype around any product. If a product is hot then it should be the retailers that reap the benefits NOT the distributor.
This is what keeps retailers in business. Distributors in Canada basically become retailers after product launch, but their job is to be the middle man FOR retailers. If a retailer can't buy a product from their distributor and make a profit based on market value then what's the point of them? When the distributor is selling 16/17 UD1 for $200 per box when the MARKET RETAIL price on them is $125US (155 CAD) then how could ANY retailer in Canada afford to buy it? The answer of course is that they ONLY care about maximizing their profits and selling to group breakers who can hide the price increases over 30 or more buyers. The whole industry is just garbage now.