Off Season Moves for Leafs and other teams.

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Well my Leafs are bounced after losing game 7. They looked good but IMO showed they are weak on the point. So I am wondering what you think they will do in the off season. I think they will definitely try to improve on D be it sign a big stud like Doughty or trade. To get a high priced D someone got to go so there is cap space. I don't see Matthews or Marner moving but I could see them put Nylander out there. With the play of Kapanen, Brown and a few others I think Nylander has become available. It will be interesting to see what happens with Bozak and JVR. What do you think will happen?

What other teams do you think will make big moves? Teams like Montreal, Ottawa (Karlsson), Oilers, NYI, NYR......there will likely be some big and interesting moves either at the draft, FA signings or trades.
 
I think Bozak, JVR, and likely Komarov are gone. I agree with you in saying Nylander can, and should be made available towards a stud defenseman. Johnsson will replace JVR, Kapanen will definitely be on the team next year, so they have options still to fill voids. They still have a few good prospects on the Marlies. let's not forget about Borgman, Rosen, and a few other giants they have down there. IMO, they should have brought Borgman up the last couple games, as he has a bit of toughness. Not sure what the status is with Carrick for next year? They also have two of the best goalies in the AHL in Sparks, and Calvin Pickard, so they have lots of pieces there to either give a shot on the big club next year, or use a trade chips. I think I heard they were looking to sign a Russian defenseman that has good potential, so we'll see what happens the next few months.
 
The problem with targeting a stud defenceman by trade is you need to find a dance partner, and who in their right mind gives up a stud d-man? Let alone trying to make the dollars work. I agree, one is definitely needed (and that person is NOT on the farm) but need and filling the need are two different stories.

I like what Kapanen showed in the playoffs. Moving him up in the lineup next year will be interesting.

My biggest issue with the playoffs was how many guys underperformed within what is probably the core going forward. Matthews, Nylander, Gardiner. I definitely expected a better showing.

Cory
 
The problem with targeting a stud defenceman by trade is you need to find a dance partner, and who in their right mind gives up a stud d-man? Let alone trying to make the dollars work. I agree, one is definitely needed (and that person is NOT on the farm) but need and filling the need are two different stories.

I like what Kapanen showed in the playoffs. Moving him up in the lineup next year will be interesting.

My biggest issue with the playoffs was how many guys underperformed within what is probably the core going forward. Matthews, Nylander, Gardiner. I definitely expected a better showing.

Cory

Last year Marner was invisible against Washington, but another year experience gave him the skills needed to compete against the Bruins this year. Nylander, on the other hand was invisible again, so it's up to him to figure it out, if he plans on being an elite NHL player.

Matthews is a bit more puzzling? He had a decent playoffs last year, and he had a good year despite injuries this year, so no idea what happened with him? If I had to guess, and I'm sure it will come out if it is true, but I think he wasn't as healthy as we were hoping. I can't see any other logic for him to fall off that much. Give the Bruins credit (Chara), I guess?

Matthews is notorious for his work ethic, and compete on the puck in the opposing end, so is Nylander, Brown, and Hyman, but only Hyman showed us that against the Bruins. These three guys always seem to force turnovers, and give-a-ways in the opposing end.

I would give Nylander one more year to see if he progresses. His skill level is somewhat up there with Matthews, and Marner, he just needs to learn how to play in the playoffs, when there isn't as much room to roam around. The trio all need to play some more in the playoffs, and the only thing that can help get better with that is more experience.

Gardiner was exposed for what he is, a very soft, slow, and give-a-way master. He has good offensive skills, but lacks a lot of the most important skill of all, which is the ability to think before he acts. He needs to be able to throw a hit, clear the net, and take a hit. He plays scared, and it was never more evident in this series. We all knew this, now it is again documented. He can be a useful player in certain situations, but he needs to be paired with a better partner that can cover up for him, and Zaitsev is not that player. He would have been better suited with someone like Hainsey, or even Polak, but in all honesty, he needs someone even better than that with him.

As for Zaitsev, after a fantastic rookie year, and a huge raise, and contract was given, he was horrible all year, and looked like he has lost his game. Chalk it up to another European player getting paid bigtime, then disappearing afterwards? Who knows?

I'm a little disappointed in Bozak, and JVR, as they needed to have a huge game 7, and they did not give it. Farewell to both, I say. JVR is a one trick pony, and is successful in the regular season at his goalmouth antics, but I'm not impressed with his playoff efforts. You need to bring it every game, not just one here, and there. Both played good here, and there, but seemed to me like they mailed it in game seven?

Komarov is someone who was missed. Another thorn in the Bruins side, like Kadri. I would bring him back short term, just for his penalty killing, and shut down skills, but I'm afraid the Leafs have too much depth waiting in the wings for a roster spot, so I'm doubtful he'll get an offer here in Toronto.

What about Matt Martin? What do they do with him?

Goaltending is fine right now. Defensive help is a huge must this summer, and again at the trade deadline. They have good players waiting for a shot, and some will not be getting it here, so they have a lot of trade chips, plus draft choices they can move for help.

Toronto is in a terrific position franchise wise right now. People are disappointed with the season ending last night, as am I, but I haven't lost focus on the fact they just finished year two, of the rebuild, and need to keep the plan in place right now. I just ignore the haters who constantly remind us fans how long it has been since they won a Cup. These people don't deserve the time of day. Yes, we know how bad they've been since 67. They sound developmentally challenged saying it over, and over again, night after night. :loseit:
 
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Last year Marner was invisible against Washington, but another year experience gave him the skills needed to compete against the Bruins this year. Nylander, on the other hand was invisible again, so it's up to him to figure it out, if he plans on being an elite NHL player.

Matthews is a bit more puzzling? He had a decent playoffs last year, and he had a good year despite injuries this year, so no idea what happened with him? If I had to guess, and I'm sure it will come out if it is true, but I think he wasn't as healthy as we were hoping. I can't see any other logic for him to fall off that much. Give the Bruins credit (Chara), I guess?

Matthews is notorious for his work ethic, and compete on the puck in the opposing end, so is Nylander, Brown, and Hyman, but only Hyman showed us that against the Bruins. These three guys always seem to force turnovers, and give-a-ways in the opposing end.

I would give Nylander one more year to see if he progresses. His skill level is somewhat up there with Matthews, and Marner, he just needs to learn how to play in the playoffs, when there isn't as much room to roam around. The trio all need to play some more in the playoffs, and the only thing that can help get better with that is more experience.

Gardiner was exposed for what he is, a very soft, slow, and give-a-way master. He has good offensive skills, but lacks a lot of the most important skill of all, which is the ability to think before he acts. He needs to be able to throw a hit, clear the net, and take a hit. He plays scared, and it was never more evident in this series. We all knew this, now it is again documented. He can be a useful player in certain situations, but he needs to be paired with a better partner that can cover up for him, and Zaitsev is not that player. He would have been better suited with someone like Hainsey, or even Polak, but in all honesty, he needs someone even better than that with him.

As for Zaitsev, after a fantastic rookie year, and a huge raise, and contract was given, he was horrible all year, and looked like he has lost his game. Chalk it up to another European player getting paid bigtime, then disappearing afterwards? Who knows?

I'm a little disappointed in Bozak, and JVR, as they needed to have a huge game 7, and they did not give it. Farewell to both, I say. JVR is a one trick pony, and is successful in the regular season at his goalmouth antics, but I'm not impressed with his playoff efforts. You need to bring it every game, not just one here, and there. Both played good here, and there, but seemed to me like they mailed it in game seven?

Komarov is someone who was missed. Another thorn in the Bruins side, like Kadri. I would bring him back short term, just for his penalty killing, and shut down skills, but I'm afraid the Leafs have too much depth waiting in the wings for a roster spot, so I'm doubtful he'll get an offer here in Toronto.

What about Matt Martin? What do they do with him?

Goaltending is fine right now. Defensive help is a huge must this summer, and again at the trade deadline. They have good players waiting for a shot, and some will not be getting it here, so they have a lot of trade chips, plus draft choices they can move for help.

Toronto is in a terrific position franchise wise right now. People are disappointed with the season ending last night, as am I, but I haven't lost focus on the fact they just finished year two, of the rebuild, and need to keep the plan in place right now. I just ignore the haters who constantly remind us fans how long it has been since they won a Cup. These people don't deserve the time of day. Yes, we know how bad they've been since 67. They sound developmentally challenged saying it over, and over again, night after night. :loseit:

I believe Matthews was impacted by injuries at least just a little, but you have to play the guy with some better players. Splitting up your top players only works for Pittsburgh because of Crosby. Every other team plays their best winger (or at least a 1B winger) with their top center. Matthews only had like 25 assists because he is playing with grit and grind instead of finishers. As for Nylander, I think he will be trade bait as well depending if they can get a viable return for him.
 
I think Babs would for sure love to land a stud d, but it's going to be pretty hard at this time. UFAs are probably the easier route, but I would highly caution signing a d for the sake of getting one. Look for good value, and don't give out a bad contract, and NTCs.

The only d that I would consider giving long term and big money is John Carlson. Would $8m/yr for 7 years be enough?

Then the next fish I would go after is Tavares. Not sure if $9M/yr for 7 years will be able to land him too.

It is a bit tough when the dollar is low and income taxes are high.

I would have to say goodbye to Bozak, uncle Leo, Plekanec, and maybe JVR, depending on how much money he would be looking at. I would look at Maroon and Perron as other UFA options. I like Maroon because he has size and has shown he can play with highly skilled players. I think he would fit nicely with Matthews and Nylander.

JT with Marner and JVR/Perron would be pretty nice. Kadri with Marleau and Kapanen for 3rd line.

Have to dump Matt Martin or bury him for cap space. Even then, it really depends on how much money JT, Carlson, JVR/Maroon/Perron are going to cost and how much term.

Also remember the expansion draft for Seattle too, so some planning ahead will be good.

Do NOT sign Green or Nash!!

BTW, with JT @ 9, Carlson @ 8, JVR @ 4.5, Maroon at 3.5 (and re-signing RFAs at good value - Nylander bridge contracxt @ $4.5M), the total salary will be around $75-76M.
 
Let's assume the sun, moon and stars don't line up...

1) sign RFA Nylander to a good cap hit.
2) I still like Maroon, and would try to sign him as a UFA. Could be cheaper and easier b/c he's not a big name, but I think he could bring good value.
3) Sign JVR to decent cap hit, and not too long term.
4) Players like Martin, Leivo, and even Hyman and Brown are fairly easily replaceable. Move them to free up cap space.
5) while this is a priority, I rank it lower because of how unlikely it would be able to happen. Trade for a top 4 d. More likely try to dip into the Euro UFA market instead. Like last year with Rosen and Borgman. Little risk, cheap, and don't have to give up assets.
 
Here's hoping they stick with their long range plan and don't give up on these talented young players they have. For the first time in recent memory we have a team to be proud of , that is on the rise and will only get better as they grow together. I'm old enough to remember the four Cups in the sixties, unfortunately I remember all the gloom between as well. I hope they can tweek things a bit and not go overboard with changes. I agree every team needs that stud D-man but they just aren't out there for the taking.
As some have said ,lets make sure Matthews has talent to compliment him going forward. I witnessed Sundin playing with scrubs too often during his career, don't want that again.
I'm very optimistic about the good things that lay in store for the Leafs, haven't been able to say that for awhile,lol.
Dan.
 
Well, they say they are going to stay the course that they are on, which seems to be building the young core. The Leafs will pick in the late teens, but if they get lucky and a top ranked player drops, like last year with Liljegren, that will be huge. The draft plays a huge role in how quickly a team can become a contender. Given the parity and difficulty in making a significant trade, you need to build within. If your 2nd and 3rd round picks turn into solid NHLers, that fills your complementary/depth/role players. Or they can be traded for NHLers. (Samuel Girard was a 2nd r pick in Nashville, was traded as part of the Turris/Duchene three way trade. Nashville essentially gave up 3 2nd round picks for Turris. I believe Girard's value was increase because he showed he was NHL ready).

If you bomb with your picks, then you can only improve your team via UFA or trades. And then you end up with the Sundin scenario mentioned above. But a lot of teams have been and are in that situation.

UFA with the Leafs is a double edge sword. You get to play where hockey is everything. Sold out arenas, crazed fans, and if you win, you will be worshipped like gods. But expectations are huge, and when they aren't met, they turn on you pretty quick, and the pressure is tremendous. So scout, scout, scout...like crazy.
 
For the Canucks, I wished that they had gone with scorched earth approach a few years ago. The timing of doing something like that is key. Do it in the years with deep drafts coming, and do it before expansion. ahh...too late now.

I am hoping so badly that the Canucks move up via the draft lottery, and I don't want Wings, Habs and Arizona do not win the lottery. This is because the Nucks decide to go 6-2-2 in the last 10 games, and specifically gaining 4 points in last 3 games after the announcement of the Sedins' retirement. That moved the Nucks from 3rd last to 6th last, and going from 11.5% odds to 7.5%.

Nucks need to land a top end player. Currently I like Dahlin, Schvechnikov, Zadina (a lot), Tkachuk, and Boqvist. I haven't done a lot of research on Kravtsov, Bouchard, Dobson, Hughes, or Wahlstrom. And I only know about Veleno b/c he was granted exceptional status in the Q.

So please, hockey gods, help the Nucks move up. So I don't have mixed feelings about the Sedins farewell send off.
 
And I have to vent a little, I was super pissed a couple of years ago when we passed on Tkachuk to take Juolevi. I know scouts had questions about his skating, but I thought he had a nose for the net, natural IQ on where to be, and would go to the dirty areas. Those types of players with high end skill do not come very often.

Skating can be worked on. But I thought Tkachuk played a game that you can't teach. Lucky you Flames fans. *still bitter*
 
I think this really comes down to how much money the big 3 young guys are going to cost them - they'll need to deal with Nylander now, but a TON of money is going to need to be held back for Matthews/Marner - Kapanen is also an RFA after next season, so if he is a piece that people see as important for the future, add him to the mix.

Johnsson is also an RFA now, and since he is going to be a regular going forward, he'll probably see a significant increase as he is only 750K right now - does he go up to 1.5 per?

Letting ALL of the impending UFAs (JVR/Bozak/Komarov/Plekanec/Moore/Polak) go will free up 16.5 million in cap space but you're down some significant NHL talent as a result.

I'd be buying out Matt Martin to free up a little bit more, personally.

Is it fair to assume that Nylander will get 6 million per, Marner will get 8 million per and Matthews will get 10.5 per?

How will they stay competitive?
 
I think this really comes down to how much money the big 3 young guys are going to cost them - they'll need to deal with Nylander now, but a TON of money is going to need to be held back for Matthews/Marner - Kapanen is also an RFA after next season, so if he is a piece that people see as important for the future, add him to the mix.

Johnsson is also an RFA now, and since he is going to be a regular going forward, he'll probably see a significant increase as he is only 750K right now - does he go up to 1.5 per?

Letting ALL of the impending UFAs (JVR/Bozak/Komarov/Plekanec/Moore/Polak) go will free up 16.5 million in cap space but you're down some significant NHL talent as a result.

I'd be buying out Matt Martin to free up a little bit more, personally.

Is it fair to assume that Nylander will get 6 million per, Marner will get 8 million per and Matthews will get 10.5 per?

How will they stay competitive?


They will stay competitive because they will still have Matthews, Nylander, Marner, Kadri, Marleau, Brown, Hyman, Kapanen, Johnsson, etc. 9 guys returning for sure. A lot of those UFAs are quite literally addition by subtraction (Polak, Moore, Komarov, etc). JVR and his goals are tough to replace but elevated roles from Kapanen/Johnsson will help. Yes probably losing 10-15 goals but those guys will help in SO many other areas (PK, defensively, speed, etc). Bozak is a hole at center, but I imagine they will be able to fill it respectably (not like 3rd line C's are extremely difficult to find).

I've ran the numbers 10 way until Sunday this entire year, cap wise they should be fine. They could even sign a John Tavares for $10M or so. Getting rid of Martin is big. And 12 months from now will likely have to get rid of Marleau (if they want to improve the D for example).

Your salaries are probably fair yes.

But yeah, they have more than enough room, and lets remember that the cap is likely going up $5M this and will go up again NEXT season... 2 increases before Matthews/Marners contracts even kick in. Also, I can see them bridging Nylander. Similar to Kucherov's 3 years at $4.7M for example, to save a little dough.
 
Is it fair to assume that Nylander will get 6 million per, Marner will get 8 million per and Matthews will get 10.5 per?

I don't think Marner is at a $8M salary range yet. That type of money is going to be reserved for franchise or elite players. And Marner's game isn't quite complete yet. It'd be pretty risky for the Leafs to sign him to $8M/yr after his ELC. If Marner wants $8M/yr, I'd sooner trade him for Draisaitl, who IMO is a better and more complete player at this point. Or I'd offer him to the Isles for a sign and trade for Tavares. To me, it seems like foolish money at this point.

Nylander is just finishing his ELC, so there are 2 options. Give a bridge contract, at less money and shorter term, or give more money to get more term. So a $6M/yr contract will require 6-7 year term. If you want to skip the bridge contract, you have to give up UFA years.

Also all good GMs of championship teams are able to get players at good value. Otherwise you handcuff your team because you've eating most of your cap on a couple of key players, but surround them with scrubs.
 
I don't think Marner is at a $8M salary range yet. That type of money is going to be reserved for franchise or elite players. And Marner's game isn't quite complete yet. It'd be pretty risky for the Leafs to sign him to $8M/yr after his ELC. If Marner wants $8M/yr, I'd sooner trade him for Draisaitl, who IMO is a better and more complete player at this point. Or I'd offer him to the Isles for a sign and trade for Tavares. To me, it seems like foolish money at this point.


This is rich.

You don't want Marner at $8M but you'd accept Draisaitl at $8.5M? The guy had 1 more point. Playing quite a bit with Mcdavid. I know points aren't everything but in the second half of the season (and the playoffs) Marner was quite literally one of the top producing forwards in the league. The guys trending towards PPG likely next season.

Also, there is no way on Gods green earth to offer him in a sign and trade for Tavares. If Tavares wants to go to TOR he will as a free agent. Likely to play on a line with Marner. You don't offer guys of Marners caliber for a PENDING free agent. That's literally never happened in the NHL, its not going to start now with MITCH FREAKEN MARNER. And why would Tavares handcuff his future team like that? Absolutely no sense.

While there hasn't been a sign & trade in the NHL quite yet, there will be one day, but it will likely be for some picks/prospects. Not a PPG roster player.

Lastly, $8M is probably high for Marner agreed, but he's likely in the $7M range. Chiarelli absolutely screwed the pooch on the Draisaitl contract. Look at comparables:

Pastrnak 6 years at $6.66M
Ehlers 7 years at $6M
Barkov 6 years at $5.9M
Huberdeau 6 years at $5.9M
Kuznetsov 8 years at $7.8M
Mackinon 7 years at $6.3M
Drouin 6 years at $5.5M
Forsberg 6 years at $6M

It's clear as day the going rate (roughly) for guys like Marner/Nylander are about 6 years and about $6-7M.

If you think Marner isn't worth $8M, I have no idea how you'd willingly accept a trade for Draisaitl who's easily $2M overpaid himself.
 
Sabres need to:

Draft Rasmus Dahlin

Cut some dead weight. Someone Moulson or Bogosian needs to be bought out I think. Preferably Bogosian. Bogosian has 2 yr left at $5.1mm, and has barely played any games for us due to injury, and I just don't see there being a spot for him (at least not that I'd like to waste $5+ mil on. Moulson has 1Y left at $5mm, and we buried him on someone else's AHL team, so would love it if we could somehow ditch both of those contracts but I don't see it happening.

With Bogosian in the mix, Sabres have:

Ristolainen
Bogosian
Scandella
Beaulieu
McCabe
(Dahlin)

Then also Brendan Guhle seems ready to go, and have youngsters to decide what to do with. Casey Nelson needs a contract, do we keep him? Does he still go for a two-way deal?

Also need some wingers to better compliment Eichel/Mittelstadt. Hoping this means that Alex Nylander steps up and makes the jump.

To end last season we finished with:

LW: S. Wilson, Rodrigues, Nylander, Nolan
RW: Okposo, Pominville, Reinhart, Baptiste

We also had Pouliot and Girgensons/Larsson sometimes shifted to the wing, but regardless that is not the greatest support cast for our Centers. I think that the concussions have effected Okposo, and he isn't the same as once was. Pominville is getting up there in age and while I like his veteran presence he isn't a huge goal scorer anymore. Reinhart needs a contract, which I presume we will give him a 2 yr type bridge deal to let him continue to prove himself.

Also, need a veteran goalie to push Ullmark in net. I think our outlook is to give Ullmark the net and let him run with it, but we need someone there to push him and be ready to step in if needed.

Summary for Buffalo:

Draft Dahlin
Buyout dead weight (Bogosian)
Find wingers to compliment our C's (I think this comes from young players stepping up rather then Free Agency)
Veteran goalie presence.




Also to address something above, no way Tavares is signing for $9mm per coming off the season he had. Given that Eichel just got $10mm, you have to think Tavares gets AT LEAST that, perhaps higher.
 
This is rich.

You don't want Marner at $8M but you'd accept Draisaitl at $8.5M? The guy had 1 more point. Playing quite a bit with Mcdavid. I know points aren't everything but in the second half of the season (and the playoffs) Marner was quite literally one of the top producing forwards in the league. The guys trending towards PPG likely next season.

Also, there is no way on Gods green earth to offer him in a sign and trade for Tavares. If Tavares wants to go to TOR he will as a free agent. Likely to play on a line with Marner. You don't offer guys of Marners caliber for a PENDING free agent. That's literally never happened in the NHL, its not going to start now with MITCH FREAKEN MARNER. And why would Tavares handcuff his future team like that? Absolutely no sense.

While there hasn't been a sign & trade in the NHL quite yet, there will be one day, but it will likely be for some picks/prospects. Not a PPG roster player.

Lastly, $8M is probably high for Marner agreed, but he's likely in the $7M range. Chiarelli absolutely screwed the pooch on the Draisaitl contract. Look at comparables:

Pastrnak 6 years at $6.66M
Ehlers 7 years at $6M
Barkov 6 years at $5.9M
Huberdeau 6 years at $5.9M
Kuznetsov 8 years at $7.8M
Mackinon 7 years at $6.3M
Drouin 6 years at $5.5M
Forsberg 6 years at $6M

It's clear as day the going rate (roughly) for guys like Marner/Nylander are about 6 years and about $6-7M.

If you think Marner isn't worth $8M, I have no idea how you'd willingly accept a trade for Draisaitl who's easily $2M overpaid himself.

I like your analysis, and would like to subscribe to your newsletter.

RNH is being paid $6MM per as well - I know, another bad Oilers contract! He hasn't even cracked the 60 point plateau.

Marner is all over the ice and seems to control the entire pace of the game when he's out there - he's a massive part of the team and will/should be paid as such - let's settle on 7.5 AAV and have him sign that deal tomorrow.
 
Montreal could go a few ways:

Buy out Alzner (or trade him for anything other than a worse contract. Even a Canadian dollar)
Deal Pacioretty for a blue chip prospect or a defenceman that can shoot (getting a number 1 stud D-man is out of the question for Patches),
Try and land a big center via free agency (Tavares or Stastny) Montreal doesnt have the talent or prospects to trade for one of these
Sign Pleks on the cheap, (seems like he is coming back)
Take a firing squad to the entire front office and Julien.
Draft a scorer with that 3rd overall pick

I'd also be happy that the team finally admits it's not very good and embraces a full-on rebuild, but they won't because Montreal.

What they probably will do:

Make a stupid trade for Ondrej Palat or Tyler Johnson (Goodbye 3rd overall pick) or
Draft a Defenceman with the 3rd pick after Dahlin's off the board
Extend Bergevin
Trade Galchenyuk and get little in return
Keep Alzner
Sign Bozek.
 
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