YoungMony29
New Member, Must Send First
I'm back with another iteration of "Young Guns Tiers", this time with 2022-23 Extended Series.
Unsurprisingly, the extended series crop of Young Guns is slim pickings. There are a few guys that look like they could be top-six/top-four players, but other than that there's not a lot of super exciting prospects. It's absolutely better than 2020-21 but it's definitely worse than 2021-22. The one caveat here is that this product has added 20 "1st round rookie" cards that will be combined with the young guns for an average of 6 per box (1:4 packs). It'll be interesting to see how these are received (see list below).
731 David Jiricek - Columbus Blue Jackets
732 Matty Beniers - Seattle Kraken
733 Brandt Clarke - Los Angeles Kings
734 Marco Rossi - Minnesota Wild
735 Kaiden Guhle - Montreal Canadiens
736 Dylan Holloway - Edmonton Oilers
737 Braden Schneider - New York Rangers
738 Samuel Poulin - Pittsburgh Penguins
739 Jake Sanderson - Ottawa Senators
740 Dylan Guenther - Arizona Coyotes
741 Lukas Reichel - Chicago Blackhawks
742 Shane Wright - Seattle Kraken
743 Kent Johnson - Columbus Blue Jackets
744 Jack Quinn - Buffalo Sabres
745 Matt Boldy - Minnesota Wild
746 Oskar Olausson - Colorado Avalanche (also YG below)
747 Wyatt Johnston - Dallas Stars
748 Simon Holmstrom - New York Islanders (also YG below)
749 Juraj Slafkovsky - Montreal Canadiens
750 Owen Power - Buffalo Sabres
*As always, these are just my opinions and just a fun way for me to get to know all the rookies coming into the league
7. AHLers/Overseas
701 Nick DeSimone - Calgary Flames (28-D)
Got in the Flames lineup 4 times this year, but he's played 331 AHL games so far in his career.
702 Dylan Wells - Chicago Blackhawks (25-G)
Played 1 NHL game this year for the Hawks, but also played 2 games in the ECHL. A 2016 5th round pick, 2022-23 was the first season that Wells played in the AHL more than the ECHL.
721 Callahan Burke - Colorado Avalanche (26-Fwd)
Cal Burke was a really solid Captain in college for Notre Dame, though he peaked at 30 points in 36 games his Junior year scoring wise. Over the last three years since graduating he's been a very solid middle six contributor for the Colorado Eagles (AHL) with 74 points in 160 GP. He got called up for 2 NHL games with all the injuries for Colorado but I don't know that he'll get the call up again.
724 Jake Lucchini - Ottawa Senators (28-Fwd)
Lucchini has been one of the Belleville Senators' best players the past few seasons after joining the organization, but if you look around the AHL you'll see that often times the leading scorers are 27-29 year-olds that are succeeding at that level but can't make the jump to the NHL. With only 11 NHL games under his belt so far, I don't think he's got many more games in his future at the highest level.
725 Justin Kirkland - Anaheim Ducks (26-Fwd)
Kirkland has bounced around the AHL since 2016-17 and had a really nice season for the Stockton Heat in 2021-22, but except for a 7-game stint for the Ducks (the worst team in the NHL), he'll likely continue to have his career at that level.
726 Parker Wotherspoon - New York Islanders (25-D)
Since being drafted in the 4th round in 2015, Wotherspoon has played 293 AHL games for the Bridgeport Sound Tigers/Islanders and only made his NHL debut this year, playing 12 games. He's been a decent AHL player that can bring some "physicality" (127 PIM in 57 GP this year in the AHL), but think that's likely what he'll continue to be.
729 Anton Levtchi - Florida Panthers (27-LW)
Panthers fans were probably stoked last summer when they signed the leading scorer from the Liiga, but the two sides mutually terminated his contract in January and he returned to the Liiga. Don't think we'll ever hear from him again.
6. Fringe NHLers with bottom line/pair upside
703 Marcus Bjork - Columbus Blue Jackets (25-D)
Bjork is a Swedish defenseman who came over as a Free Agent this year after four seasons in the SHL and split time with the Jackets (33 games) and their AHL affiliate the Cleveland Monsters (44 games). Unfortunately he was atrocious defensively in the NHL so he's much more likely to be in the AHL in the future.
707 Nick Cicek - San Jose Sharks (23-D)
A defensive, hard-hitting defenseman who has never brought much offense to the table. Cicek is an old school defenseman who could be a useful 6th/7th defenseman who can play a bit of an enforcer role if his game is decent enough on its own to earn him that spot.
710 Fredrik Olofsson - Dallas Stars (26-Fwd)
Drafted back in 2014 by Chicago, Olofsson saw his first NHL playing time with the Stars this season. He skated in 28 games and accumulated 4 points, but still played more in the AHL where he's been for a while. Most likely he'll be an AHLer but could see him bouncing back and forth for a few years.
711 Tyler Tucker - St. Louis Blues (23-D)
A 7th round draft pick in 2018 by St. Louis, Tucker had an interesting OHL career highlighted by a 2018-19 season where he put up 59 points in 68 games and accumulated 105 PIM. He's played in the AHL the past 3 years with 46 points and 227 PIM in 142 GP. He was called up and played 26 games for the Blues this year ( mostly in the second half (4 points, 31 PIM)), and with his style of play I could see him maybe being a call-up option or a 6th/7th defenseman.
714 Mac Hollowell - Toronto Maple Leafs (24-D)
2018 4th round pickA 5'9" defenseman, Hollowell had a steep hill to climb to make it to the NHL. He led the OHL in goals and points for a defenseman in 2018-19 and started playing for the Marlies in the AHL playoffs that season. Over the next three years he definitely struggled to adapt to the AHL and sadly got injured this past January when he was finally off to a solid start with the Marlies and actually played six games for the Leafs. It's probably a longshot at this point for him to be a top-four defenseman in the NHL.
715 James Hamblin - Edmonton Oilers (24-Fwd)
Hamblin went undrafted in his draft year, but after three strong WHL seasons captaining the Medicine Hat Tigers he signed an ELC with the Oilers in 2020. Aside from 10 games playing for the Oilers this season, he's been playing in the AHL for Bakersfield full-time, accumulating 78 points in 154 games. At 5'9", he's another player that really has to prove he can compete with the bigger, stronger middle-six wingers he would have to play against in the NHL. As of now, he's still got a lot to prove even at the AHL level and the clock is ticking.
717 William Bitten - St. Louis Blues (24-RW/C)
Coming over in an AHL deal from the Iowa Wild, Bitten has become an important part of the Blues' AHL affiliate, the Springfield Thunderbirds. After accumulating 21 playoff points in 18 games last year he raised his game and finished the 2022-23 season with 45 points in 65 games. He ended up playing 4 games for the Blues as they traded away so many players, and maybe he'll be given a chance to play on the bottom line next season. At 24 though, he hasn't been good enough to make me think he's gonna play in the top 9.
719 Semyon Der-Arguchintsev - Toronto Maple Leafs (22-C)
Affectionately called "SDA", this Russian center reportedly signed a contract to go play in KHL just a few days ago, though it's yet to be seen whether the Leafs will attempt to sign him. A 2018 3rd round pick, SDA has a lot of offensive talent, specifically as a playmaker, and became one of the top scorers for the Marlies this past season with 40 points in 50 games. From what I've read about him, his defense is pretty abysmal though so it'll take a lot of offensive ability to overcome that issue. With only 38 goals in 248 OHL games and a game not suited for a bottom-six role, I'm not sure where SDA fits in the NHL.
720 Tim Berni - Columbus Blue Jackets (23-D)
In a limited role, this former 6th rounder from Switzerland put up some really nice analytical numbers in 59 games played for the Jackets this season. He's very much a defensive first player (19 points in 89 AHL games, 3 points in 59 NHL games), but maybe he can carve out a role on a NHL team. Wonder if he'll start the year with a roster spot next year? The Jackets have so many defenseman in their organization it'll be a tough challenge.
722 Eetu Makiniemi - San Jose Sharks (24-G)
Drafted back in 2017, Makiniemi spent four years playing in Finland and came over to N.A. after a solid rookie season in the Liiga. Over the past two years he's put up solid numbers in the AHL (2.60 GAA/.909 SV% in 36 GP) and the Sharks don't have any clue what their future goalie situation is. Could he sneak into a backup role?
5. Likely NHLers with limited upside
704 Matej Blumel - Dallas Stars (22-LW/RW)
The Oilers selected Blumel in the 4th round back in 2019 but his rights weren't retained and the Stars picked him up last summer. So far this ELC pickup has paid dividends as the Czech winger finished 4th in per-game scoring for the Texas Stars with 19 goals and 25 assists in 58 games. It's still probably a long-shot to see him have a big impact at the NHL level but his first year in North America was definitely a success. I'm sure he'll be back in the AHL and looking to grow on this his successful 2022-23 season and push to make the NHL.
709 Pontus Holmberg - Toronto Maple Leafs (24-Fwd)
A 6th round pick in 2018, Holmberg's huge bump in production in the SHL in 2021/22 led to a season split 50/50 between the NHL and AHL for one of the league's best teams in 2022-23. He didn't light the world on fire for the Marlies (10g/12a in 38 GP) but it was his first year in North America and he was a decent player for the Leafs in 37 games (5g/8a) with limited playing time. Probably still has a ceiling of a bottom six forward.
723 Samuel Walker - Minnesota Wild (23-Fwd)
After Captaining the University of Minnesota for 3 years and putting up 4 consistent collegiate seasons (26 pts, 30 pts, 29 pts, 27 pts), Walker signed with his hometown team since the Lightning failed to sign him after their three-year period. Like the majority of NCAA players signed after playing for four years, I don't think many had expectations of him being a top-nine NHLer. Then, he went and potted 27 goals and added 21 assists in 56 AHL games and earned himself two recalls to Minnesota (9 games total). I still think it's more likely that he finds a bottom line role or ends up being a good AHL player than a really impactful NHL player, but he could prove me wrong again if this year was anything to go off of.
727 Samuel Ersson - Philadelphia Flyers (23-G)
Played 77 games for Brynas IF in the SHL from 2019-2021, one of the league's worst teams. His stats were mediocre (2.93 GAA/.904 SV%), but he did pretty much save the team from relegation in 2021 by posting a 1.30 GAA/.949 SV% line in 5 relegation games. He only played five games in 2021-22 but was the Lehigh Valley Phantoms' (AHL) starter in 2022-23. He wasn't all that impressive with slightly below average stats for the Phantoms, but it was a short stint in the NHL that got him noticed. He won his first six games, capped off by a 32 save performance against the Flames on the road. He didn't play as well in his last three before returning to Lehigh, but overall may have won himself the backup job to start the 2023-24 season in Philadelphia. Overall over the course of 12 games he saved 1.7 goals above expected (Moneypuck).
As always, goalies are so difficult to project outside of the ones that look like sure things, and because of that I struggled with where to put Ersson on this list. I think he's much closer to an AHLer than a great prospect, but he was very impressive his first 7 NHL starts this year for a bad team so I had to bump him up to at least this tier. With Hart the goalie of the future, Ersson could be a decent backup.
4B. High Floor, Low Ceiling
706 Juuso Parssinen - Nashville Predators (22-Fwd)
Parssinen is looking like the steal of the 2019 draft at 210th overall, only 7 from Mr. Irrelevant. With 45 games played, only 3 players after the 3rd round have played more games so far in the NHL than him. Not only that, but he has an impressive 25 points in those 45 games. After being drafted Parssinen started to really impress in the Liiga, specifically with his vision and passing prowess. With 34 assists in 55 games in 2020-21, he finished 5th in assists in the top Finnish league and earned an ELC for the Predators.
In a very surprising turn of events, he only played 10 AHL games in his rookie season and became a regular for the Predators and showed that skillset translated to the NHL. At 6'3", he has a different build than most pass-first wingers but that just adds some versatility to his game. His ceiling is probably relatively low due to his struggles to score, but I could definitely see him being a middle-six forward with a role on the 2nd powerplay. Unfortunately for him, in this hobby draft position is massive for card value unless you become a superstar. There should be opportunities to play in Nashville.
4A. The Unknown Region: High Ceiling, Low Floor
712 Oskar Olausson - Colorado Avalanche (20-Fwd)
In The Athletic's prospect rankings the Avalanche were ranked dead last, but they did rank Olausson as the organization's top prospect as most of the team's recent high draft picks have already played some time in the NHL. While he made a one-game debut in 2022-23, he played 63 AHL games in his first season after playing in the SHL/OHL the past few years.
He had just an average season in the OHL in 2021-22 considering his draft position (28th overall in 2021) with 49 points in 55 games (4 in 10 playoff games) and only put up 20 points in 63 AHL games this year. Honestly I just can't say what his future holds at this point, so hopefully he grows in the AHL in 2023-24. It's important to remember than late first-round picks are still at best 50/50 to play a lot in the NHL.
708 Nikita Alexandrov - St. Louis Blues (22-C)
2019 62nd overall pick by STL, 8 points in 7 WJC-U20 games in 2019-20
After an odd one-off season in the Liiga in 2020-21 on a loan from St. Louis, Alexandrov came into the AHL and immediately became a solid player, turning into one of the team's top scorers in his sophomore season. With 19 goals and 19 assists in 41 games in 2022-23, Alexandrov was as effective, if not more effective, than Jake Neighbours, who most consider a better prospect. According to those more familiar with Alexandrov, he is a malleable player who's game translates well to the NHL level. He can do a little bit of everything so I'm more confident that he'll be a NHL player than the other players in this tier, but I still am not sure exactly how good he can turn out.
713 Simon Holmstrom - New York Islanders (22-RW/LW)
23rd overall pick in 2019
Holmstrom had the unfortunate situation similar to most 2019 draft picks that his development was strange because of Covid, but after 2 seasons of getting used to the North American game (he came over to the AHL immediately) he had a solid season in 2021-22 for the Bridgeport Islanders with 43 points in 68 games. In 2022-23 he earned a small but consistent role in the NHL where he played 50 games averaging 11:00 per night. He wasn't on the ice for any playoff games, but looking at his stats he had a more promising year than his 9 points look like on paper. If you see below he played well defensively, but really struggled with his passing/assist game, which before the year was thought to be his strength. If he can find that part of his game in the NHL and is effective defensively in a bigger role he could be a good player. If not then he might not become an impactful player at this level.
716 Jean-Luc Foudy - Colorado Avalanche (21-C)
2020 3rd round pick
Foudy is an undersized (5'11") and fast skater who had a pretty strong AHL season in 2022-23 after a couple years of adapting to the professional style of play. He didn't blow the doors off in the OHL in his 2 years before the draft, but he did show some great passing prowess with 49 assists in 63 games in 2018-19, the most by a rookie. With 36 points in 46 games this year for the Colorado Eagles, he quickly jumped up the Avs' prospect rankings and earned 9 games with the big club. He was considered one of the best skaters in the 2020 draft and there's a chance he could have been a really nice selection in the 3rd round, but he needs to prove the ability to do it at the highest level.
3. Great Prospects
718 Kirill Marchenko - Columbus Blue Jackets (22-RW/LW)
2018 2nd round pick (49th overall)
To be frank, Marchenko's rookie stat-line of 21 goals and only 4 assists is hilarious. Looking at his analytics though he was actually one of the Jackets' best players. Of course that was due to his 94th percentile finishing and 87th percentile Goals/60 clip (according to JFresh), but he also was very solid defensively (69th percentile), especially for a rookie.
Marchenko played in the KHL for almost all of the past three seasons before his rookie year, leading all U21 skaters in scoring in 2020-21 (15g/13a in 41 GP), though that was for the perennially great St. Petersburg SKA. Nonetheless, he clearly has a top-level scoring ability, which puts him into this category regardless of the fact that he plays in Columbus.
728 Aatu Raty - New York Islanders (traded to Canucks) (20-C)
As a Rangers fan I was ECSTATIC that they traded Raty for a few weeks of Bo Horvat because he's had a fantastic rise since being selected in the 2nd round back in 2019. In 2021-22 he finished 7th in scoring in the Liiga, highest of anyone under the age of 24, and played on Finland's U20 WJC team that won the Silver Medal, finishing second on the 2nd in points. He played 15 NHL games this year (12 for NYI, 3 for VAN), but spent 52 games in the AHL this season. He finished the year with 9 goals and 18 assists, which isn't amazing but he did have to deal with learning the North American game and being traded halfway through the season. He's got the makings in my opinion of a really solid middle six center without too many weaknesses.
2. Consolation Prizes with Star Potential
705 Jonatan Berggren - Detroit Red Wings (Fwd)
As it currently stands, Yzerman may have made a poor pick in 2018 at 6th overall with Filip Zadina, but he also may have gotten a steal at 33rd overall in Jonatan Berggren. He worked his way up through the SHL system and broke out in 2020-21 with 45 points in 49 games (13 more points than any other U21 player) and carried forward that success to the AHL last year with 64 points in 70 games. Only JJ Peterka had more points than anyone his age or younger, but Berggren also led his team in points by 11.
Berggren quickly earned a promotion to the NHL this year after a short stint in the AHL and finished the season with 15 goals and 13 assists in 67 games for the Wings while playing 13:27 a night. He was already getting PP time and exceled in the goal-scoring department despite being more known as a playmaker in the SHL/AHL. Analytically he performed decently and his projected WAR (JFresh) was heightened by that goal scoring. I think Raymond might have a slightly higher ceiling (especially with how much collectors care about draft position) at the moment but it's impossible to ignore just how good of a 3-year stretch Berggren has had.
1. Chase Cards: Don't think any qualify for this tier in this year's extended
Those are all my thoughts! Who do you think should be ranked higher? I would love to hear everyone's thoughts and see if there are players that you think are prime for a breakout or a bigger role than most are predicting.
Unsurprisingly, the extended series crop of Young Guns is slim pickings. There are a few guys that look like they could be top-six/top-four players, but other than that there's not a lot of super exciting prospects. It's absolutely better than 2020-21 but it's definitely worse than 2021-22. The one caveat here is that this product has added 20 "1st round rookie" cards that will be combined with the young guns for an average of 6 per box (1:4 packs). It'll be interesting to see how these are received (see list below).
731 David Jiricek - Columbus Blue Jackets
732 Matty Beniers - Seattle Kraken
733 Brandt Clarke - Los Angeles Kings
734 Marco Rossi - Minnesota Wild
735 Kaiden Guhle - Montreal Canadiens
736 Dylan Holloway - Edmonton Oilers
737 Braden Schneider - New York Rangers
738 Samuel Poulin - Pittsburgh Penguins
739 Jake Sanderson - Ottawa Senators
740 Dylan Guenther - Arizona Coyotes
741 Lukas Reichel - Chicago Blackhawks
742 Shane Wright - Seattle Kraken
743 Kent Johnson - Columbus Blue Jackets
744 Jack Quinn - Buffalo Sabres
745 Matt Boldy - Minnesota Wild
746 Oskar Olausson - Colorado Avalanche (also YG below)
747 Wyatt Johnston - Dallas Stars
748 Simon Holmstrom - New York Islanders (also YG below)
749 Juraj Slafkovsky - Montreal Canadiens
750 Owen Power - Buffalo Sabres
*As always, these are just my opinions and just a fun way for me to get to know all the rookies coming into the league
7. AHLers/Overseas
701 Nick DeSimone - Calgary Flames (28-D)
Got in the Flames lineup 4 times this year, but he's played 331 AHL games so far in his career.
702 Dylan Wells - Chicago Blackhawks (25-G)
Played 1 NHL game this year for the Hawks, but also played 2 games in the ECHL. A 2016 5th round pick, 2022-23 was the first season that Wells played in the AHL more than the ECHL.
721 Callahan Burke - Colorado Avalanche (26-Fwd)
Cal Burke was a really solid Captain in college for Notre Dame, though he peaked at 30 points in 36 games his Junior year scoring wise. Over the last three years since graduating he's been a very solid middle six contributor for the Colorado Eagles (AHL) with 74 points in 160 GP. He got called up for 2 NHL games with all the injuries for Colorado but I don't know that he'll get the call up again.
724 Jake Lucchini - Ottawa Senators (28-Fwd)
Lucchini has been one of the Belleville Senators' best players the past few seasons after joining the organization, but if you look around the AHL you'll see that often times the leading scorers are 27-29 year-olds that are succeeding at that level but can't make the jump to the NHL. With only 11 NHL games under his belt so far, I don't think he's got many more games in his future at the highest level.
725 Justin Kirkland - Anaheim Ducks (26-Fwd)
Kirkland has bounced around the AHL since 2016-17 and had a really nice season for the Stockton Heat in 2021-22, but except for a 7-game stint for the Ducks (the worst team in the NHL), he'll likely continue to have his career at that level.
726 Parker Wotherspoon - New York Islanders (25-D)
Since being drafted in the 4th round in 2015, Wotherspoon has played 293 AHL games for the Bridgeport Sound Tigers/Islanders and only made his NHL debut this year, playing 12 games. He's been a decent AHL player that can bring some "physicality" (127 PIM in 57 GP this year in the AHL), but think that's likely what he'll continue to be.
729 Anton Levtchi - Florida Panthers (27-LW)
Panthers fans were probably stoked last summer when they signed the leading scorer from the Liiga, but the two sides mutually terminated his contract in January and he returned to the Liiga. Don't think we'll ever hear from him again.
6. Fringe NHLers with bottom line/pair upside
703 Marcus Bjork - Columbus Blue Jackets (25-D)
Bjork is a Swedish defenseman who came over as a Free Agent this year after four seasons in the SHL and split time with the Jackets (33 games) and their AHL affiliate the Cleveland Monsters (44 games). Unfortunately he was atrocious defensively in the NHL so he's much more likely to be in the AHL in the future.
707 Nick Cicek - San Jose Sharks (23-D)
A defensive, hard-hitting defenseman who has never brought much offense to the table. Cicek is an old school defenseman who could be a useful 6th/7th defenseman who can play a bit of an enforcer role if his game is decent enough on its own to earn him that spot.
710 Fredrik Olofsson - Dallas Stars (26-Fwd)
Drafted back in 2014 by Chicago, Olofsson saw his first NHL playing time with the Stars this season. He skated in 28 games and accumulated 4 points, but still played more in the AHL where he's been for a while. Most likely he'll be an AHLer but could see him bouncing back and forth for a few years.
711 Tyler Tucker - St. Louis Blues (23-D)
A 7th round draft pick in 2018 by St. Louis, Tucker had an interesting OHL career highlighted by a 2018-19 season where he put up 59 points in 68 games and accumulated 105 PIM. He's played in the AHL the past 3 years with 46 points and 227 PIM in 142 GP. He was called up and played 26 games for the Blues this year ( mostly in the second half (4 points, 31 PIM)), and with his style of play I could see him maybe being a call-up option or a 6th/7th defenseman.
714 Mac Hollowell - Toronto Maple Leafs (24-D)
2018 4th round pickA 5'9" defenseman, Hollowell had a steep hill to climb to make it to the NHL. He led the OHL in goals and points for a defenseman in 2018-19 and started playing for the Marlies in the AHL playoffs that season. Over the next three years he definitely struggled to adapt to the AHL and sadly got injured this past January when he was finally off to a solid start with the Marlies and actually played six games for the Leafs. It's probably a longshot at this point for him to be a top-four defenseman in the NHL.
715 James Hamblin - Edmonton Oilers (24-Fwd)
Hamblin went undrafted in his draft year, but after three strong WHL seasons captaining the Medicine Hat Tigers he signed an ELC with the Oilers in 2020. Aside from 10 games playing for the Oilers this season, he's been playing in the AHL for Bakersfield full-time, accumulating 78 points in 154 games. At 5'9", he's another player that really has to prove he can compete with the bigger, stronger middle-six wingers he would have to play against in the NHL. As of now, he's still got a lot to prove even at the AHL level and the clock is ticking.
717 William Bitten - St. Louis Blues (24-RW/C)
Coming over in an AHL deal from the Iowa Wild, Bitten has become an important part of the Blues' AHL affiliate, the Springfield Thunderbirds. After accumulating 21 playoff points in 18 games last year he raised his game and finished the 2022-23 season with 45 points in 65 games. He ended up playing 4 games for the Blues as they traded away so many players, and maybe he'll be given a chance to play on the bottom line next season. At 24 though, he hasn't been good enough to make me think he's gonna play in the top 9.
719 Semyon Der-Arguchintsev - Toronto Maple Leafs (22-C)
Affectionately called "SDA", this Russian center reportedly signed a contract to go play in KHL just a few days ago, though it's yet to be seen whether the Leafs will attempt to sign him. A 2018 3rd round pick, SDA has a lot of offensive talent, specifically as a playmaker, and became one of the top scorers for the Marlies this past season with 40 points in 50 games. From what I've read about him, his defense is pretty abysmal though so it'll take a lot of offensive ability to overcome that issue. With only 38 goals in 248 OHL games and a game not suited for a bottom-six role, I'm not sure where SDA fits in the NHL.
720 Tim Berni - Columbus Blue Jackets (23-D)
In a limited role, this former 6th rounder from Switzerland put up some really nice analytical numbers in 59 games played for the Jackets this season. He's very much a defensive first player (19 points in 89 AHL games, 3 points in 59 NHL games), but maybe he can carve out a role on a NHL team. Wonder if he'll start the year with a roster spot next year? The Jackets have so many defenseman in their organization it'll be a tough challenge.
722 Eetu Makiniemi - San Jose Sharks (24-G)
Drafted back in 2017, Makiniemi spent four years playing in Finland and came over to N.A. after a solid rookie season in the Liiga. Over the past two years he's put up solid numbers in the AHL (2.60 GAA/.909 SV% in 36 GP) and the Sharks don't have any clue what their future goalie situation is. Could he sneak into a backup role?
5. Likely NHLers with limited upside
704 Matej Blumel - Dallas Stars (22-LW/RW)
The Oilers selected Blumel in the 4th round back in 2019 but his rights weren't retained and the Stars picked him up last summer. So far this ELC pickup has paid dividends as the Czech winger finished 4th in per-game scoring for the Texas Stars with 19 goals and 25 assists in 58 games. It's still probably a long-shot to see him have a big impact at the NHL level but his first year in North America was definitely a success. I'm sure he'll be back in the AHL and looking to grow on this his successful 2022-23 season and push to make the NHL.
709 Pontus Holmberg - Toronto Maple Leafs (24-Fwd)
A 6th round pick in 2018, Holmberg's huge bump in production in the SHL in 2021/22 led to a season split 50/50 between the NHL and AHL for one of the league's best teams in 2022-23. He didn't light the world on fire for the Marlies (10g/12a in 38 GP) but it was his first year in North America and he was a decent player for the Leafs in 37 games (5g/8a) with limited playing time. Probably still has a ceiling of a bottom six forward.
723 Samuel Walker - Minnesota Wild (23-Fwd)
After Captaining the University of Minnesota for 3 years and putting up 4 consistent collegiate seasons (26 pts, 30 pts, 29 pts, 27 pts), Walker signed with his hometown team since the Lightning failed to sign him after their three-year period. Like the majority of NCAA players signed after playing for four years, I don't think many had expectations of him being a top-nine NHLer. Then, he went and potted 27 goals and added 21 assists in 56 AHL games and earned himself two recalls to Minnesota (9 games total). I still think it's more likely that he finds a bottom line role or ends up being a good AHL player than a really impactful NHL player, but he could prove me wrong again if this year was anything to go off of.
727 Samuel Ersson - Philadelphia Flyers (23-G)
Played 77 games for Brynas IF in the SHL from 2019-2021, one of the league's worst teams. His stats were mediocre (2.93 GAA/.904 SV%), but he did pretty much save the team from relegation in 2021 by posting a 1.30 GAA/.949 SV% line in 5 relegation games. He only played five games in 2021-22 but was the Lehigh Valley Phantoms' (AHL) starter in 2022-23. He wasn't all that impressive with slightly below average stats for the Phantoms, but it was a short stint in the NHL that got him noticed. He won his first six games, capped off by a 32 save performance against the Flames on the road. He didn't play as well in his last three before returning to Lehigh, but overall may have won himself the backup job to start the 2023-24 season in Philadelphia. Overall over the course of 12 games he saved 1.7 goals above expected (Moneypuck).
As always, goalies are so difficult to project outside of the ones that look like sure things, and because of that I struggled with where to put Ersson on this list. I think he's much closer to an AHLer than a great prospect, but he was very impressive his first 7 NHL starts this year for a bad team so I had to bump him up to at least this tier. With Hart the goalie of the future, Ersson could be a decent backup.
4B. High Floor, Low Ceiling
706 Juuso Parssinen - Nashville Predators (22-Fwd)
Parssinen is looking like the steal of the 2019 draft at 210th overall, only 7 from Mr. Irrelevant. With 45 games played, only 3 players after the 3rd round have played more games so far in the NHL than him. Not only that, but he has an impressive 25 points in those 45 games. After being drafted Parssinen started to really impress in the Liiga, specifically with his vision and passing prowess. With 34 assists in 55 games in 2020-21, he finished 5th in assists in the top Finnish league and earned an ELC for the Predators.
In a very surprising turn of events, he only played 10 AHL games in his rookie season and became a regular for the Predators and showed that skillset translated to the NHL. At 6'3", he has a different build than most pass-first wingers but that just adds some versatility to his game. His ceiling is probably relatively low due to his struggles to score, but I could definitely see him being a middle-six forward with a role on the 2nd powerplay. Unfortunately for him, in this hobby draft position is massive for card value unless you become a superstar. There should be opportunities to play in Nashville.
4A. The Unknown Region: High Ceiling, Low Floor
712 Oskar Olausson - Colorado Avalanche (20-Fwd)
In The Athletic's prospect rankings the Avalanche were ranked dead last, but they did rank Olausson as the organization's top prospect as most of the team's recent high draft picks have already played some time in the NHL. While he made a one-game debut in 2022-23, he played 63 AHL games in his first season after playing in the SHL/OHL the past few years.
He had just an average season in the OHL in 2021-22 considering his draft position (28th overall in 2021) with 49 points in 55 games (4 in 10 playoff games) and only put up 20 points in 63 AHL games this year. Honestly I just can't say what his future holds at this point, so hopefully he grows in the AHL in 2023-24. It's important to remember than late first-round picks are still at best 50/50 to play a lot in the NHL.
708 Nikita Alexandrov - St. Louis Blues (22-C)
2019 62nd overall pick by STL, 8 points in 7 WJC-U20 games in 2019-20
After an odd one-off season in the Liiga in 2020-21 on a loan from St. Louis, Alexandrov came into the AHL and immediately became a solid player, turning into one of the team's top scorers in his sophomore season. With 19 goals and 19 assists in 41 games in 2022-23, Alexandrov was as effective, if not more effective, than Jake Neighbours, who most consider a better prospect. According to those more familiar with Alexandrov, he is a malleable player who's game translates well to the NHL level. He can do a little bit of everything so I'm more confident that he'll be a NHL player than the other players in this tier, but I still am not sure exactly how good he can turn out.
713 Simon Holmstrom - New York Islanders (22-RW/LW)
23rd overall pick in 2019
Holmstrom had the unfortunate situation similar to most 2019 draft picks that his development was strange because of Covid, but after 2 seasons of getting used to the North American game (he came over to the AHL immediately) he had a solid season in 2021-22 for the Bridgeport Islanders with 43 points in 68 games. In 2022-23 he earned a small but consistent role in the NHL where he played 50 games averaging 11:00 per night. He wasn't on the ice for any playoff games, but looking at his stats he had a more promising year than his 9 points look like on paper. If you see below he played well defensively, but really struggled with his passing/assist game, which before the year was thought to be his strength. If he can find that part of his game in the NHL and is effective defensively in a bigger role he could be a good player. If not then he might not become an impactful player at this level.
716 Jean-Luc Foudy - Colorado Avalanche (21-C)
2020 3rd round pick
Foudy is an undersized (5'11") and fast skater who had a pretty strong AHL season in 2022-23 after a couple years of adapting to the professional style of play. He didn't blow the doors off in the OHL in his 2 years before the draft, but he did show some great passing prowess with 49 assists in 63 games in 2018-19, the most by a rookie. With 36 points in 46 games this year for the Colorado Eagles, he quickly jumped up the Avs' prospect rankings and earned 9 games with the big club. He was considered one of the best skaters in the 2020 draft and there's a chance he could have been a really nice selection in the 3rd round, but he needs to prove the ability to do it at the highest level.
3. Great Prospects
718 Kirill Marchenko - Columbus Blue Jackets (22-RW/LW)
2018 2nd round pick (49th overall)
To be frank, Marchenko's rookie stat-line of 21 goals and only 4 assists is hilarious. Looking at his analytics though he was actually one of the Jackets' best players. Of course that was due to his 94th percentile finishing and 87th percentile Goals/60 clip (according to JFresh), but he also was very solid defensively (69th percentile), especially for a rookie.
Marchenko played in the KHL for almost all of the past three seasons before his rookie year, leading all U21 skaters in scoring in 2020-21 (15g/13a in 41 GP), though that was for the perennially great St. Petersburg SKA. Nonetheless, he clearly has a top-level scoring ability, which puts him into this category regardless of the fact that he plays in Columbus.
728 Aatu Raty - New York Islanders (traded to Canucks) (20-C)
As a Rangers fan I was ECSTATIC that they traded Raty for a few weeks of Bo Horvat because he's had a fantastic rise since being selected in the 2nd round back in 2019. In 2021-22 he finished 7th in scoring in the Liiga, highest of anyone under the age of 24, and played on Finland's U20 WJC team that won the Silver Medal, finishing second on the 2nd in points. He played 15 NHL games this year (12 for NYI, 3 for VAN), but spent 52 games in the AHL this season. He finished the year with 9 goals and 18 assists, which isn't amazing but he did have to deal with learning the North American game and being traded halfway through the season. He's got the makings in my opinion of a really solid middle six center without too many weaknesses.
2. Consolation Prizes with Star Potential
705 Jonatan Berggren - Detroit Red Wings (Fwd)
As it currently stands, Yzerman may have made a poor pick in 2018 at 6th overall with Filip Zadina, but he also may have gotten a steal at 33rd overall in Jonatan Berggren. He worked his way up through the SHL system and broke out in 2020-21 with 45 points in 49 games (13 more points than any other U21 player) and carried forward that success to the AHL last year with 64 points in 70 games. Only JJ Peterka had more points than anyone his age or younger, but Berggren also led his team in points by 11.
Berggren quickly earned a promotion to the NHL this year after a short stint in the AHL and finished the season with 15 goals and 13 assists in 67 games for the Wings while playing 13:27 a night. He was already getting PP time and exceled in the goal-scoring department despite being more known as a playmaker in the SHL/AHL. Analytically he performed decently and his projected WAR (JFresh) was heightened by that goal scoring. I think Raymond might have a slightly higher ceiling (especially with how much collectors care about draft position) at the moment but it's impossible to ignore just how good of a 3-year stretch Berggren has had.
1. Chase Cards: Don't think any qualify for this tier in this year's extended
Those are all my thoughts! Who do you think should be ranked higher? I would love to hear everyone's thoughts and see if there are players that you think are prime for a breakout or a bigger role than most are predicting.
