frankiefives
Verified Trader,
Fractured jaw. Does this injury affect his prices? Or has he already shown enough that it won't change much?
Bedard out 4-6 weeks. How will it affect his prices?
- Thread starter frankiefives
- Start date
re-ac-tor
Verified Trader,
It's just a jaw, so I wouldn't think it would affect his card prices, people would be more worried if it was a knee or shoulder. McDavid was hurt in his first year as well, does anyone remember it that did anything to his card prices?
My best,
Ken
My best,
Ken
ovechkincrosby0887
Verified Trader,
Series 2 comes out late February - he'll be back by then. The pandemonium over his Young Guns will be crazy regardless of his injury. He's the next big thing - his injury will have no impact.
Opened to door for Connor Zary to win the Calder!
Long term no impact on his cards. Short term I think you’ll see a slight dip.
Long term no impact on his cards. Short term I think you’ll see a slight dip.
katoy2j
Verified Trader
I will likely have an unpopular view on this but after watching a lot of Bedard I see no impact on his short term prices but serious impact on his long term prices.
To start I'll base it on the fact he's being mentioned in a tier of McDavid, Crosby, Matthews.
I don't see him as that type of player unfortunately. He is on the smaller side and although Crosby is also smaller, he is a freak in nature when it comes to lower body strength which Bedard is not. It may take a couple of years but I can't see Bedard sticking at center long term. Especially in the playoffs when the game gets exponentially more physical and much tighter.
To me the long term future of Bedard is on the wing. To me his best comparables as a player are Gaudreau and Marner. Guys who can control the puck and make spectacular plays but on the wing position. I think Bedard is the best scorer of those guys and can see him getting 40 goals and maybe even touching 50 which is impressive.
At his peak I can see 100-110 points a year from Bedard. Certainly fantastic numbers but not much higher than what Mitch Marner regularly does. Again the caveat with more goals than Marner scores. However Mitch Marner is not in the startusphere of Auston Matthews let alone Crosby and McDavid in terms of card prices.
Because of all these reasons I would feel very confident that Bedard cards will be worth less 5 and 10 years from now then they will in year 1. McDavid will still rule for a long time and if Bedard is just a Marner level player which I suspect and granted that is very, very good, someone else will come along and his cards won't be as desired.
Also a lot of the drive up in preorder wax has to do with the fact a lot of prospectors from other sports are in on the Bedard craze. Collectors in other sports have a lot less patience and you see prices tank pretty quickly in a few years in other sports when the guys don't get to the top spot and I don't see Bedard surpassing McDavid anytime in the next 5 years if not longer.
To start I'll base it on the fact he's being mentioned in a tier of McDavid, Crosby, Matthews.
I don't see him as that type of player unfortunately. He is on the smaller side and although Crosby is also smaller, he is a freak in nature when it comes to lower body strength which Bedard is not. It may take a couple of years but I can't see Bedard sticking at center long term. Especially in the playoffs when the game gets exponentially more physical and much tighter.
To me the long term future of Bedard is on the wing. To me his best comparables as a player are Gaudreau and Marner. Guys who can control the puck and make spectacular plays but on the wing position. I think Bedard is the best scorer of those guys and can see him getting 40 goals and maybe even touching 50 which is impressive.
At his peak I can see 100-110 points a year from Bedard. Certainly fantastic numbers but not much higher than what Mitch Marner regularly does. Again the caveat with more goals than Marner scores. However Mitch Marner is not in the startusphere of Auston Matthews let alone Crosby and McDavid in terms of card prices.
Because of all these reasons I would feel very confident that Bedard cards will be worth less 5 and 10 years from now then they will in year 1. McDavid will still rule for a long time and if Bedard is just a Marner level player which I suspect and granted that is very, very good, someone else will come along and his cards won't be as desired.
Also a lot of the drive up in preorder wax has to do with the fact a lot of prospectors from other sports are in on the Bedard craze. Collectors in other sports have a lot less patience and you see prices tank pretty quickly in a few years in other sports when the guys don't get to the top spot and I don't see Bedard surpassing McDavid anytime in the next 5 years if not longer.
Agreed. I was thinking more along Patrick Kane lines.
Pacman69
Verified Trader,
I still think you will see hype like never before. Mcdavid young guns were available for $100 when he was injured. If Bedard goes that low, there will be a lot of disgruntled folk that paid $250+ cad per box of series 2. too much FOMO will keep the prices of his young gun over 500 which is honestly insane.
Love the hobby, but I will wait a couple of years when they are still not cup contenders to pick up my copy. He is going to be great, but its going to take time and the hawks need to develop a team around him. Look at the oilers, best player on the planet and nada.....it really isnt that easy
I shudder to think what his future watch auto rookie will sell for when it drops
Pacman
Triple B
Verified Trader,
It won’t affect anything. If there is a dip, it’ll make purchasing that much better. The hype wave will roll right over this.
katoy2j
Verified Trader
Probably an even better comparison and a fitting one as well because of the franchise
re-ac-tor
Verified Trader,
You guys may be right about future Bedard, but I will point out he's averaging close to a point a game as an 18 year old with almost no support from his teammates. I'm not saying he's a guaranteed superstar, but the early signs are there.
My best.
Ken
My best.
Ken
frankiefives
Verified Trader,
I agree wholeheartedly with this. He's put up amazing numbers on an awful team. I think he's got superstar upside.
katoy2j
Verified Trader
I don't think anybody denies that Bedard has superstar upside.
However Patrick Kane came up as a comparable. Kane has won a Hart trophy, an Art Ross a Conn Smythe and 3 cups and has a shot to finish his career as the highest US born player in points. His cards will be far less produced than Bedards will. As well they both played on the same team.
For Bedard to even have the same career Kane has would be a huge accomplishment. Exceeding it would be extremely difficult. How much are Kane cards worth?
I have no doubt Bedard prices will be ridiculous in year 1. However following other sports who had cards pumped by investors the ways Bedards will likely be early on it doesn't end well. Look at guys like Doncic and Zion. A lot of those players cards have seen 80-90% drops in value. Will Bedard see that? I don't think so but it's looking like Bedard is going to be about a 800.00 Canadian YG for the first few months. In 5 years I think it will be half that. That's a significant long term drop. Thats assuming a nearly best case scenario and he's Patrick Kane. No guarantee he wins any of the regular season awards especially with McDavid still in his prime. The Blackhawks are a very long way away from any postseason success as well.
Patrick Kane was a Stanley Cup winner at 21. Won 3 Cups by 26 and won the Conn Smythe at 24. If I was putting money down I would say that Bedard would not have that level of success by those ages. In fact I would consider it a miracle if Bedard can even get to the playoffs by age 21.
However Patrick Kane came up as a comparable. Kane has won a Hart trophy, an Art Ross a Conn Smythe and 3 cups and has a shot to finish his career as the highest US born player in points. His cards will be far less produced than Bedards will. As well they both played on the same team.
For Bedard to even have the same career Kane has would be a huge accomplishment. Exceeding it would be extremely difficult. How much are Kane cards worth?
I have no doubt Bedard prices will be ridiculous in year 1. However following other sports who had cards pumped by investors the ways Bedards will likely be early on it doesn't end well. Look at guys like Doncic and Zion. A lot of those players cards have seen 80-90% drops in value. Will Bedard see that? I don't think so but it's looking like Bedard is going to be about a 800.00 Canadian YG for the first few months. In 5 years I think it will be half that. That's a significant long term drop. Thats assuming a nearly best case scenario and he's Patrick Kane. No guarantee he wins any of the regular season awards especially with McDavid still in his prime. The Blackhawks are a very long way away from any postseason success as well.
Patrick Kane was a Stanley Cup winner at 21. Won 3 Cups by 26 and won the Conn Smythe at 24. If I was putting money down I would say that Bedard would not have that level of success by those ages. In fact I would consider it a miracle if Bedard can even get to the playoffs by age 21.
Hockey_cards_gongshow on IG posted some...troubling numbers derived from Cardladder's reported sales:
Top four players for cards sold (again, what Cardladder is reporting/capturing):
1. Gretzky (a little over 40k)
2. McDavid (~23.5K)
3. Ovechkin (~16.5K)
4. Crosby (just under 15K)
Number 5? Bedard. A little over 13K. While I don't think those numbers represent the entirety of activity by a long chalk, I think that they ARE a representative sample. And they show just how vigorous is the Bedard hype.
Top four players for cards sold (again, what Cardladder is reporting/capturing):
1. Gretzky (a little over 40k)
2. McDavid (~23.5K)
3. Ovechkin (~16.5K)
4. Crosby (just under 15K)
Number 5? Bedard. A little over 13K. While I don't think those numbers represent the entirety of activity by a long chalk, I think that they ARE a representative sample. And they show just how vigorous is the Bedard hype.
weasel-king
Registered Trader,
And considering Bedard has far, far fewer cards produced than any of those other four, it clearly shows the hype. The fact that the majority of those are Team Canada and ePack-only says a lot!
TMLFan3
New Member, Must Send First!
He’s out another 6-8 weeks per Sportsnet.
