Bedard YG Prices Sinking

There's only so much money in the hobby. Even if we all dedicated all of our hobby dollars to Bedard, there are just too many of these things to sustain the value before we're tapped out.
 
deepbluejacket said:
There's only so much money in the hobby. Even if we all dedicated all of our hobby dollars to Bedard, there are just too many of these things to sustain the value before we're tapped out.
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Just wait till the flood on ePack. These things will be down to $200-250.
 
What I find interesting is that this is not new news.
We've seen it as far back as Ilya Kovalchuk YG. It has happened with Sid, McD, Ovie, Matthews and the list goes on. I am not too worried about it to be honest.. Sit back and relax and enjoy the show.. you all will get one eventually.. Some want it harder than others at the start. That's okay, a superflous bubble to keep the rest of us sane.
 
I guess the only part that is informative to me is how high it started and what it's dropped to... As Ameet said - this wasn't hard to see coming, though I did have one shop owner I spoke with thought the raw copies would bottom out much higher because people would be holding them or sending them for grading, keeping the raw supply down on the market.

I took my shot on a couple of overpriced hobby boxes and struck out. Now I'll wait and see where they get to... It'll be interesting as more products come out to see how much money is left for those, and if it ignites a selling of the Young Guns to pursue higher valued ones.

Cory
 
It's sad to see because these losses aren't sustainable to collectors and it chases people away. For the first time ever, UD offered some great YG parallels that included a 1/1, so that's where box prices come from. Seasoned collectors seeing his base YG sell for $1,000 knew that wasn't sustainable, nor was $700, $600 or $500. We're nearing $400 with more room to fall.

TMLFan said it above...it'll get worse with ePack. Base RCs in baseball and base YGs in hockey are so different. Hockey collectors put a premium on YGs where baseball collectors view base RCs as part of the set with equal numbers and while there is a small premium, rarely do you see a base card sell for $1,000.

It's a hard lesson to learn and there's still a full schedule of sets to come out.
 
I did some rough math and estimated there are over 100,000 Bedard Young Guns. It's not a rare card. There isn't close to that many collectors that are searching for one. A lot of people who bought at the top thinking it would be a great investment will be bag holders for a decade and maybe if he reaches McDavid levels and wins a few Cups will get their money back but it will be a long time.

This has already played out with basketball and football during the pandemic with people buying in and then dumping and taking big hits in value because a lot of people chasing Bedard have no interest in hockey or him. It's just the trendy thing to do.

What will change though with new people coming into the hobby is "what is deemed desireable" Hockey has been really fickle for years where young guns which are massively produced are more valuable than a numbered rookie of a player. Even looking back to 2005-06, there are still at least 30,000-40,000 Crosby and Ovechkin Young Guns. However a set like Artifacts which is limited to /999 sells for a fraction of the Young Guns. That was a weird hockey thing but I think that will pivot in the future. Older collectors didn't treat these as actual rookie cards. Well that doesn't matter as new money in the hobby does.

I think numbered Bedard stuff will be what is desirable. So much so that a previous joke product like the star rookie box set cards which were just a fun scratching of an itch. I think the numbered cards in that set of Bedard will exceed the value of Bedard Young Guns in the long run.
 
I really wished everyone just boycotted buying boxes at $300+, that price is ridiculous.

In the end, the hobbyists, once again, lose money buying boxes. I saw S2 Tins at Walmart for $90 and I just chuckled and left them on the shelf.
 
90.00 for a tin is solid value. 4 young Guns per tin. Yeah you don't get a chance at the rare parallels but you aren't going to get that product for cheaper. That is the price to play going forward. When there isn't a solid rookie class the retail will be available cheaper in 6 months but that won't happen with Bedard products.

junyab said:
I really wished everyone just boycotted buying boxes at $300+, that price is ridiculous.

In the end, the hobbyists, once again, lose money buying boxes. I saw S2 Tins at Walmart for $90 and I just chuckled and left them on the shelf.
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There will a big difference to consider when comparing the value of the McDavid YG and the Bedard YG when Series 2 will be out on ePack. This difference won't favor Bedard YGs.

In 2015-16 and 2016-17, when you combined 5 YGs on ePack to get a Silver Foil parallel, you traded the 5 regular YGs for the 1 Silver Foil. Same when trading 5 Silver Foils for 1 Rainbow Foil. This is no longer the case. This means that for each McDavid Silver Foil, 5 regular YGs don't exist. For each Rainbow Foil, 25 McDavid YGs don't exist.

They changed this I believe in 2017-18. This means that the number of Bedard YGs being physically shipped from ePack will be much higher than for McDavid YGs if the print run is the same.
 
This isn't true. They print the cards before you pull them on e-pack. While they may not give you the cards if you combined them, they weren't tossing them in the trash when you combined them. They simply held them back and would send them out to replace cards as redemption replacements.

GoCanGo said:
There will a big difference to consider when comparing the value of the McDavid YG and the Bedard YG when Series 2 will be out on ePack. This difference won't favor Bedard YGs.

In 2015-16 and 2016-17, when you combined 5 YGs on ePack to get a Silver Foil parallel, you traded the 5 regular YGs for the 1 Silver Foil. Same when trading 5 Silver Foils for 1 Rainbow Foil. This is no longer the case. This means that for each McDavid Silver Foil, 5 regular YGs don't exist. For each Rainbow Foil, 25 McDavid YGs don't exist.

They changed this I believe in 2017-18. This means that the number of Bedard YGs being physically shipped from ePack will be much higher than for McDavid YGs if the print run is the same.
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I just can't get passed the blue/purple Young Guns logo on this card while Bedard wears a red Blackhawks jersey. It looks so wrong aesthetically. Why didn't UD color match the YG to the team colors like they did the base cards?
 
It doesn't matter if those cards were printed or not, ePack users who combined them didn't own the regular YGs anymore or have them available for sale. Those cards may have found their way as replacements or through other means, but how do we know they're not sitting in a UD storage somewhere?

katoy2j said:
This isn't true. They print the cards before you pull them on e-pack. While they may not give you the cards if you combined them, they weren't tossing them in the trash when you combined them. They simply held them back and would send them out to replace cards as redemption replacements.
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Only for now. If he plays like Sid, Ovy, McDavid, Matthew's, prices for both his singles and any S2 packs/boxes will still go up from here.
 
I'm kind of at a different mindset actually. While I think Bedard will do well, all the players you mentioned were in the playoffs by their third year in the league if not earlier. Chicago is so far away that I don't see them in the playoffs for at least 3 more seasons. More than 30 guys are above a point a game pace which Bedard is slightly below. If he starts approaching the 100 point barrier he is then Mitch Marner who also is Canadian and plays in arguably a bigger hockey market. The guys has to hit 140-150 points to maintain his hype and I just don't see that happening with the talent around him. In 10 years can things change? Of course but with prospects there is always a new class each season. A lot of people in on the Bedard hype have no interest in hockey. If I had to make an educated guess I would say that even at todays prices, they will decline and won't be reached again until the end of the decade if at all for his non numbered stuff.

You pretty much need to apply the basketball playbook with Bedard. If he isn't the best player in hockey by year 3 then his non high end stuff will get dumped and will be easy to acquire because it isn't rare by any means. You'll have triple digit PSA 9 and 10's available at that time for sale.

SkyFire47 said:
Only for now. If he plays like Sid, Ovy, McDavid, Matthew's, prices for both his singles and any S2 packs/boxes will still go up from here.
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