BTP Numbers / Math

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DogfoodSoup

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Ok so I took all the GU insert numbers from the ITG site and did some math, here's what it looks like.

Total number of game used pieces in the whole BTP print run is 11621.
The chances percentage is based on the entire print run.

Silver Jerseys 3600
Gold Jerseys 400
Chances of pulling a silver or gold jersey 34.4%

Limited (LTD) Jerseys 150
LTD Jerseys Gold 50
Chances of pulling either 1.7%

Silver Number 760
Gold Number 40
Chances of pulling either 6.8%

Silver Number LTD 45
Gold Number LTD 5
Chances of pulling either 0.4%

Silver Emblem 760
Gold Emblem 40
Chances of pulling either 6.8%

Silver Emblem LTD 45
Gold Emblem LTD 5
Chances of pulling either 0.4%

Silver Auto Jersey 207
Gold Auto Jersey 23
Chances of pulling either 1.9%

Silver Au/Jsy LTD 45
Gold Au/Jsy LTD 5
Chances of pulling either 0.4%

Silver Auto Number 207
Gold Auto Number 23
Chances of pulling either 1.9%

Silver Au/Num LTD 45
Gold Au/Num LTD 5
Chances of pulling either 0.4%

Silver Auto Emblem 207
Gold Auto Emblem 23
Chances of pulling either 1.9%

Silver Au/Emb LTD 45
Gold Au/Emb LTD 5
Chances of pulling either 0.4%

Goaltending Evolution Silver 500
Goaltending Evolution Gold 100
Chances of pulling either 5.1%

Prospect Combos Silver 1080
Prospect Combos Gold 120
Chances of pulling either 10.3%

Super Sized Pads Silver 360
Super Sized Pads Gold 120
Chances of pulling either 4.1%

Roots Silver 81
Roots Gold 9
Roots LTD 1
Chances of pulling a Roots 0.7%

Glove Cards Silver 400
Glove Cards Gold 200
Chances of pulling either 5.1%

Draft Day Duos Silver 1000
Draft Day Duos Gold 200
Chances of pulling either 10.3%

Auto Threads Silver 90
Auto Threads Gold 10
Chances of pulling either 0.8%

Great Moments Silver 320
Great Moments Gold 80
Chances of pulling either 3.4%

Complete Jerseys Silver 126
Complete Jerseys Gold 14
Chances of pulling either 1.2%

Complete Logos 20
Chances of pulling 0.2%

Made to Order 50
Chances of pulling 0.4%

Total Number of 1/1's 228 (these 228 were factored in to the respective gold #ing above)
Chances of pulling a 1/1 1.9%.

All the numbers I'm using are based on what's posted on the ITG website.

I also did a little bit of math to try and figure out the total number of cases. This is wide open as I only used a couple of cases I've seen broken as my reference. If you have information that is different please post so I can get a better picture to go by.

From what I've seen the average case has 9 boxes with 2 GU and 3 boxes with 1 GU for a total of 21 GU per case. This averages out to approximately 550 cases of BTP. Going by this number that would mean there are again on average 11 gold copies of each masked men insert. Also going by the 21 GU per case that would mean that if 1/1's hit 1.9% of the time then there would be a 1/1 (not counting the MTO cards) in every 2 1/2 cases.

Again if anyone has other information to shed some light on my case numbers please post it.
 
Sorry to throw a wrench in your numbers there Christophe...but is there an Arena version of BTP this year? It probably won't affect the GU numbers much, but it might throw off the Gold Mask numbers slightly.
 
So thanks to some other members who have posted the info from a newsletter in early March that mentioned the gold masks were /10 it would seem that the number of cases is probably closer to 500 than 550. This is based on the gold masked men falling 1 per case, if anyone has had a case with more than 1 please let me know or if you've had a case that didn't have any please let me know.

Based on 500 cases being produced that would mean the following;
Combining the glove cards and pad cards you should get 2.16 per case on average.
Combining the gold inserts you should get 2.9 per case on average (that includes the gold pads and gloves)
The Made To Order cards would fall 1 for every 10 cases.
 
Good work on the math...

Funny how 500 cases seems like a lot these days when in the 90s it was what... probably 5000+ cases?
 
numbern9ne said:
Funny how 500 cases seems like a lot these days when in the 90s it was what... probably 5000+ cases?
Click to expand...

Lot more. The book Card Sharks talked about how a UD bragged about only creating "a million possible sets" of one of their early popular baseball issues between retail and hobby. 1,000,000 Nolan Ryan base cards (just one player) would be approximately 154 cases hobby on its own at 15 cards a pack. The math can continue from there if you factor in 600 card base sets + hologram inserts.
 
chadsexington said:
Lot more. The book Card Sharks talked about how a UD bragged about only creating "a million possible sets" of one of their early popular baseball issues between retail and hobby. 1,000,000 Nolan Ryan base cards (just one player) would be approximately 154 cases hobby on its own at 15 cards a pack. The math can continue from there if you factor in 600 card base sets + hologram inserts.
Click to expand...

If I'm doing my math right, roughly 92,500 cases.

Also, just about all their early baseball issues were available as factory sets too?

-m.
 
spiral8 said:
but does that mean there are 500 twelve box cases?
how do the 24 box cases fall into the mix?
Click to expand...

Sorry I didn't realize there were 24 box cases as well. All the numbers I did were averages based on print run so just double the average if you have a 24 box case instead of a 12 box case.
 
Also using 500 cases as the guideline that would mean there are 230 of each of the silver masked men inserts. They fall on average 2 per box which makes 24 per 12 box case. Subtract the 1 gold that hits per case that's 23 cards x 500 cases / 50 cards in the set.
 
Some more numbers for anyone who is interested, this time pertaining to the autos.

There are 86 autos in the set according to ITGs website. 19 of those are listed as short prints. Now this is where it becomes a bit of a guessing game but in past years it would seem there are anywhere from 15-25 of each of the SPs. Using 20 as the number for each SP card that would mean if all the non-SPd cards have an equal number of cards printed there would be an average of 173 of each of the 67 non-SPd cards.

Also using ebay as a reference so far the most of any of the SPs that have shown up is Manny Fernandez (9 cards). The only one that hasn't shown up on ebay so far is John Vanbiesbrouck.

To give an idea of price ranges a Patrick Roy SP sold for $75 Best Offer.
A Niklas Backstrom SP sold for $7.50 BIN The Backstrom is only one of Backstrom to surface so far and wasn't listed by the seller as being a SP.

If anyone has any sales info for the SPd autos please let me know either by a reply on here or a PM, thanks.
 
DogfoodSoup said:
Some more numbers for anyone who is interested, this time pertaining to the autos.

There are 86 autos in the set according to ITGs website. 19 of those are listed as short prints. Now this is where it becomes a bit of a guessing game but in past years it would seem there are anywhere from 15-25 of each of the SPs. Using 20 as the number for each SP card that would mean if all the non-SPd cards have an equal number of cards printed there would be an average of 173 of each of the 67 non-SPd cards.

Also using ebay as a reference so far the most of any of the SPs that have shown up is Manny Fernandez (9 cards). The only one that hasn't shown up on ebay so far is John Vanbiesbrouck.

To give an idea of price ranges a Patrick Roy SP sold for $75 Best Offer.
A Niklas Backstrom SP sold for $7.50 BIN The Backstrom is only one of Backstrom to surface so far and wasn't listed by the seller as being a SP.

If anyone has any sales info for the SPd autos please let me know either by a reply on here or a PM, thanks.
Click to expand...

While I didn't list it on eBay, I did sell a Vanbiesbrouck to an HI user - so it has been pulled at least.

-m.
 


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