deepbluejacket
Verified Trader,
In January of 2015, I returned to the hobby after a long hiatus and to keep things interesting for myself, I kept a journal for about 45 days. It was an electronic journal, so I can easily share some of it with you.
Here's me really undervaluing the 2014-15 UD Series 1:
"Pondered how much a complete set of Series 1 is really worth. The base set is worth $10-20, no matter how good it is. Just a fact of life there, not enough demand to be worth anymore. So that leaves the 50 YGs. How good is this year's crop? Not good at all. The best player is arguably Ekblad, who at best may end up comparable to Shea Weber. Weber's YG sells for $6-15. So that's the card setting the standard. Johnny Gaudreau is currently selling the best, but he's right now only a $25 card. Sam Reinhart's next in line and he's been going for as much as $25 and as little as $5. Since he plays for Buffalo – and didn't make that awful team – his upside is unknown. But no one here is Toews or Tavares and the majority look like complete washouts. I'd say the entire set is worth no more than $120 and a few years from now, I bet it will be sold for less."
Um yeah, so there was player I kind of undervalued who alone is worth quite a bit more than $120...
The prices of these cards in January 2015 just floors me now:
"Investigated the recent prices of standout Young Guns. Crosby remains in a class by himself. The next two player are Malkin and Seguin who approach $100. Toews is up there as well. Then we drop to Price who is a steady $60 player. Stamkos can surprisingly be had for under $50 on occasion. Tavares is in this range too. Kane's next with Ovechkin pretty close. Subban is around $30. Then we hit Tarasenko, who's overvalued when given who sells below him. Kessel is a solid $20. Gaudreau and Ekblad selling for more than they are worth with Sam Reinhart getting some sudden love. Kopitar and Perry are staying about $10 with Rask. Giroux is here as well, which is shocking. Parise, Getzlaf, and Carter? Safely under $10. Giroux is so undervalued that he's worth pursuing."
Ovechkin was around $50. Just six years ago. Wow. And the only YG worth more than $100 was Crosby. Now, rookies who've done next to nothing debut at $200.
"David Pastrnak scored his first 2 NHL goals yesterday. He's got skill, but he plays for Boston. We suppress point totals. He has no RCs at present.
Appalled that a Ryan Spooner non-RC 1/1 sold for $130+."
Nothing can suppress Pasta! And yes, still appalled at that Spooner sale. So is the buyer.
The journal pauses with the post office losing a rare card and me basically stepping away for another long while. That's pretty much how all of my runs end. So let's give it up for the post office, which hasn't lost a single thing of mine for 12 consecutive months. I'm still here! (knocks on wood)
Mike
Here's me really undervaluing the 2014-15 UD Series 1:
"Pondered how much a complete set of Series 1 is really worth. The base set is worth $10-20, no matter how good it is. Just a fact of life there, not enough demand to be worth anymore. So that leaves the 50 YGs. How good is this year's crop? Not good at all. The best player is arguably Ekblad, who at best may end up comparable to Shea Weber. Weber's YG sells for $6-15. So that's the card setting the standard. Johnny Gaudreau is currently selling the best, but he's right now only a $25 card. Sam Reinhart's next in line and he's been going for as much as $25 and as little as $5. Since he plays for Buffalo – and didn't make that awful team – his upside is unknown. But no one here is Toews or Tavares and the majority look like complete washouts. I'd say the entire set is worth no more than $120 and a few years from now, I bet it will be sold for less."
Um yeah, so there was player I kind of undervalued who alone is worth quite a bit more than $120...
The prices of these cards in January 2015 just floors me now:
"Investigated the recent prices of standout Young Guns. Crosby remains in a class by himself. The next two player are Malkin and Seguin who approach $100. Toews is up there as well. Then we drop to Price who is a steady $60 player. Stamkos can surprisingly be had for under $50 on occasion. Tavares is in this range too. Kane's next with Ovechkin pretty close. Subban is around $30. Then we hit Tarasenko, who's overvalued when given who sells below him. Kessel is a solid $20. Gaudreau and Ekblad selling for more than they are worth with Sam Reinhart getting some sudden love. Kopitar and Perry are staying about $10 with Rask. Giroux is here as well, which is shocking. Parise, Getzlaf, and Carter? Safely under $10. Giroux is so undervalued that he's worth pursuing."
Ovechkin was around $50. Just six years ago. Wow. And the only YG worth more than $100 was Crosby. Now, rookies who've done next to nothing debut at $200.
"David Pastrnak scored his first 2 NHL goals yesterday. He's got skill, but he plays for Boston. We suppress point totals. He has no RCs at present.
Appalled that a Ryan Spooner non-RC 1/1 sold for $130+."
Nothing can suppress Pasta! And yes, still appalled at that Spooner sale. So is the buyer.
The journal pauses with the post office losing a rare card and me basically stepping away for another long while. That's pretty much how all of my runs end. So let's give it up for the post office, which hasn't lost a single thing of mine for 12 consecutive months. I'm still here! (knocks on wood)
Mike
