Long term value: Gretzky 2nd year vs Roy rookie?

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McGuillicuddy

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Wondering what people think of these two 80s classics. Both are in the same value ballpark at the moment with Roy being a touch higher. Gretzky is money these days, but Roy is no slouch himself and possibly undervalued. I have a KSA 8.5 Gretzky 2nd year (yes I know..KSA...but this is a lovely card and worth the grade) I'm thinking of selling to pick up a Roy rookie of similar grade. I'm wondering if it's something I might regret later (note I also have both of these cards raw in middling condition as parts of sets).
 
For 80s stuff, you've just named the two cards I suspect we'll see take big jumps this year.

As Gretzky RCs become unaffordable for a lot of people, it makes sense to me that his 2nd year will gain in populairity.

Roy is due for the same bump Lemieux had. I don't think he'll hit the same pricing, but you never know.
 
There's pros & cons to anything, I suppose. With this recent boom in sports cards values, it's hard to know for sure, but from what I've seen in 20-ish years of collecting hockey, forwards are king, followed by netminders & then defensemen. (as far as retaining values go) So I try to stay true to that. In almost any subset, etc Gretzky always outsells Roy, & Roy typically always outsells Orr...so that's kinda what I go on.

Granted, that's not always the formula, & these weird booming prices are all speculative at this point...but it sure is fun seeing junk wax become popular again. Or watching the Gretzky RC or the Jordan RC reach astronimical levels, whereas just as recent as 10 months ago or so, you could pick either one of them up raw for maybe $1,000. Nowadays, you're looking at $1,000 for a PSA 2...which is insane to me.

I actually own a PSA 9 Roy 1986 OPC RC. I purchased it from a store in Ypsilanti, MI in maybe 2003-04. I paid $200....now, I see one has sold as recently as last month for $2500. I've never seen that card that high! So, one would possibly think that it may bottom out again, just like other junk wax stuff has in the past. But I think WG will always hold his value over guys like Roy, Orr, Yzerman, Jagr, etc...but again...it's all speculative, and I'm no expert.
 
My immediate instinct was to say Roy RC, because collectors prize the RC over everything. The 2nd year phenomenon is a part of our collecting past. For example, a 2nd year McDavid or Crosby is worth basically nothing and probably always will be. That kind of logic hasn't seeped into the vintage yet and maybe it never will. But it would concern me.
 
For the first time in a long time, 2nd year cards are a big deal. I think you’d be doing yourself a disservice comparing the two, but you can’t go wrong with either.
 
I feel like the market just corrected for the Roy Rookie, could go up more but I think it's seen it's big jump. Prolly a month or two ago would've been the best time to buy.
 
isles4life said:
I feel like the market just corrected for the Roy Rookie, could go up more but I think it's seen it's big jump. Prolly a month or two ago would've been the best time to buy.
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That is not helpful! :p

Actually it's also probably immaterial. The Gretzky 80-81 has also shot up in that time, and maybe even more than the Roy. So if I'm looking to flip 1 for the other than it doesn't matter if it's now or 2 months ago.
 
isles4life said:
I feel like the market just corrected for the Roy Rookie, could go up more but I think it's seen it's big jump. Prolly a month or two ago would've been the best time to buy.
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Yea Roy OPC rookie is up 3-4x since mid-October. And October was 1.5-2x from August.

I bought a Roy OPC PSA 7 mid-October for $300 cdn. Sold it at the start of December for a small profit ($370 cdn) as I found a BGS 8 to replace it. Now a PSA 7 just sold yesterday on ebay for $1180 cdn.

That sale yesterday set a new record as PSA 8's were selling in the $1200 range the past couple weeks. With that said I'm not sure how much more Roy can go up.

Also feel like a dolt for passing on (4) PSA 8 for $2k total in November lol.
 
rohara99 said:
Yea Roy OPC rookie is up 3-4x since mid-October. And October was 1.5-2x from August.

I bought a Roy OPC PSA 7 mid-October for $300 cdn. Sold it at the start of December for a small profit ($370 cdn) as I found a BGS 8 to replace it. Now a PSA 7 just sold yesterday on ebay for $1180 cdn.

That sale yesterday set a new record as PSA 8's were selling in the $1200 range the past couple weeks. With that said I'm not sure how much more Roy can go up.

Also feel like a dolt for passing on (4) PSA 8 for $2k total in November lol.
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There are a lot of us feeling like dolts these days with similar stories.
 
One thing to keep in mind with 86 OPC is the print run was pretty low. Wax is nearly impossible to find, previous years are actually easier and 87 is still reasonably common. I think it is a sleeper set. That Roy OPC RC is just not very common.

I bought a really nice set early last year, the Roy is probably an 8 but it has a wax stain on the back. Paid 275 CAD for the whole set. Just need to figure out how to remove that wax on the back!
 
deepbluejacket said:
My immediate instinct was to say Roy RC, because collectors prize the RC over everything. The 2nd year phenomenon is a part of our collecting past. For example, a 2nd year McDavid or Crosby is worth basically nothing and probably always will be. That kind of logic hasn't seeped into the vintage yet and maybe it never will. But it would concern me.
Click to expand...

For modern cards, but for 80's and older, 2nd year cards have some value since there weren't inserts and various other sets besides the base set.
 

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