Over\Under priced Young Guns Rc's?

Krakenfan

Krakenfan

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Out of boredom I was looking up the values for Upper Deck Young Guns rookies over the years and I thought that some were either Over\Under priced. I know that certain NHL markets bring more of a premium for players and drive up the prices, But Beckett in my opinion forgets to price anything that isn’t newer than 5 years old. These are ten I think are Over\Under priced and why:

Over Priced:
2002-03 Upper Deck #234 Henrik Zetterberg YG RC $250 (Over Hyped)
2002-03 Upper Deck #232 Rick Nash YG RC $200 (Priced high for the player he could have been)
2014-15 Upper Deck #495 David Pastrnak YG RC $150 (Over Hyped)
2016-17 Upper Deck #468 Mitch Marner YG RC &120 (Local Market over Hype)
2003-04 Upper Deck #221 Brent Burns YG RC $100 (Over Hyped)
2009-10 Upper Deck #452 Brad Marchand YG RC $80 (?)
2014-15 Upper Deck #469 Jordan Binnington YG RC $80 (Priced high because of one year’s playoffs)
2019-20 Upper Deck #201 Jack Hughes YG RC $80 (Priced for his potential)
2010-11 Upper Deck #219 Taylor Hall YG RC &80 (Priced for the player he was supposed to be)
2009-10 Upper Deck #210 Erik Karlsson YG RC $80 (Still priced for the player he was)

Under Priced:
2007-08 Upper Deck #210 Patrick Kane YG RC $100 (Has almost 200 more points than Toews and is valued $100 less)
2018-19 Upper Deck #491 Carter Hart YG RC $80 (Leading the way of the NHL goalies for the future)
2016-17 Upper Deck #458 Mathew Barzal YG RC $60 (Calder Winner, playing for bad team)
2009-10 Upper Deck #202 Victor Hedman YG RC $50 (One of the top five D-Men in the league)
2013-14 Upper Deck #230 Vladimir Tarasenko YG RC $50 (Stuck in a bad market, Superstar on any other team)
2015-16 Upper Deck #221 Artemi Panarin YG RC $50 (Going to dominate scoring for the next 10 years)
2003-04 Upper Deck #206 Eric Staal YG RC $40 (Stuck on bad teams, 1,000 Point Player)
2006-07 Upper Deck #216 Anze Kopitar YG RC $40 (Phenomenal player stuck on a bad team, almost 1000 points)
2016-17 Upper Deck #210 Sebastian Aho YG RC $40 (Future NHL star on any other team, Great upside)
2007-08 Upper Deck #249 Nicklas Backstrom YG RC $30 (Stuck playing second fiddle to Ovechkin. Would be best player on any other team. Washington brings down value.

Am I just over thinking this? Let me know what you think.
 
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02-03 Nash and Zetterberg RCs - not overpriced. The last 21 SPs in UD1 that were inserted only came one per box - making them very highly sought after for set builders. Just take a look at the non YG cards in that grouping - they still sell for at least $40 apiece.

Take a look at what you determined are overpriced - have you tried looking for boxes for most Series 2 wax? You'll have a hard time finding it for a reasonable price. For the most part, UD has for the most part made it to order. Series 1 always gets a significant bump up in production, since usually the biggest YGs, especially of the top Draft Picks come out as their first live rookie cards. Series 2 usually faces a drop in production, since most of the big guns are in Series 1. 14-15 UD1 had the Top 3 picks in the 2014 Draft - UD2 that year was basically half of what was made for Series 1 - it is in much shorter supply. All you had to do was bust a Hobby case of UD2 and see how loaded it was, that alone was reason enough to rip it down, because you could make good money on just getting the case hits, which were coming 3-4/case vs 1 usually.

You may think that way in either direction, but Young Guns are generally the standard rookie card of choice for the casual collector - that's the one pretty much everyone knows. It's cheaper for the most part to just buy the card than trying to rip wax these days, where it's basically a 1 in 8 1/2 box chance to hit any one particular Young Gun in a standard 50 card set of SPs these days. I've seen guys continuously buy wax of name your year of UD wax, trying to hit one of the big guys - and about 90% of the time come out on the losing end of things instead of just buying them outright.
 
Not going to comment on every single one, but I will chime in on a few.

Nash and Zetterberg are expensive because of how ridiculously short printed they are. They were not printed in nearly the quantities that ultra modern (2015-present) Young Guns have been. Demand is simply higher than supply. Zetterberg also has the caveat of being extremely condition sensitive since most came out of the packs damaged. (EDIT: I got this point wrong, I was thinking about the Datsyuk YGs being damaged out of packs. Low supply of the Zetty still applies though)

As for Pastrnak his prices are somewhat legit because 2014-15 Series Two was one of the shortest printed modern UD base sets ever and sealed wax was practically impossible to find even before Pastrnak blew up as a player. Again, supply can't meet demand and there are essentially no more left out there to pull. You'll have a hard time even finding sealed packs of that release much less a box/case or even a blaster.

And yes Patrick Kane is IMO one of the most undervalued YGs out there. He should be a tier below Crosby and Ovie based on supply and accomplishments. You can put Malkin on that list too.
 
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Good luck finding a David Pastrnak young gun for $150. And sorry to say he’s not overrated he’s one of the more elite goal scorers in the league.
 
Amsfan said:
Out of boredom I was looking up the values for Upper Deck Young Guns rookies over the years and I thought that some were either Over\Under priced. I know that certain NHL markets bring more of a premium for players and drive up the prices, But Beckett in my opinion forgets to price anything that isn’t newer than 5 years old. These are ten I think are Over\Under priced and why:

Over Priced:
2002-03 Upper Deck #234 Henrik Zetterberg YG RC $250 (Over Hyped)
2002-03 Upper Deck #232 Rick Nash YG RC $200 (Priced high for the player he could have been)
2014-15 Upper Deck #495 David Pastrnak YG RC $150 (Over Hyped)
2016-17 Upper Deck #468 Mitch Marner YG RC &120 (Local Market over Hype)
2003-04 Upper Deck #221 Brent Burns YG RC $100 (Over Hyped)
2009-10 Upper Deck #452 Brad Marchand YG RC $80 (?)
2014-15 Upper Deck #469 Jordan Binnington YG RC $80 (Priced high because of one year’s playoffs)
2019-20 Upper Deck #201 Jack Hughes YG RC $80 (Priced for his potential)
2010-11 Upper Deck #219 Taylor Hall YG RC &80 (Priced for the player he was supposed to be)
2009-10 Upper Deck #210 Erik Karlsson YG RC $80 (Still priced for the player he was)

Under Priced:
2007-08 Upper Deck #210 Patrick Kane YG RC $100 (Has almost 200 more points than Toews and is valued $100 less)
2018-19 Upper Deck #491 Carter Hart YG RC $80 (Leading the way of the NHL goalies for the future)
2016-17 Upper Deck #458 Mathew Barzal YG RC $60 (Calder Winner, playing for bad team)
2009-10 Upper Deck #202 Victor Hedman YG RC $50 (One of the top five D-Men in the league)
2013-14 Upper Deck #230 Vladimir Tarasenko YG RC $50 (Stuck in a bad market, Superstar on any other team)
2015-16 Upper Deck #221 Artemi Panarin YG RC $50 (Going to dominate scoring for the next 10 years)
2003-04 Upper Deck #206 Eric Staal YG RC $40 (Stuck on bad teams, 1,000 Point Player)
2006-07 Upper Deck #216 Anze Kopitar YG RC $40 (Phenomenal player stuck on a bad team, almost 1000 points)
2016-17 Upper Deck #210 Sebastian Aho YG RC $40 (Future NHL star on any other team, Great upside)
2007-08 Upper Deck #249 Nicklas Backstrom YG RC $30 (Stuck playing second fiddle to Ovechkin. Would be best player on any other team. Washington brings down value.

Am I just over thinking this? Let me know what you think.
Click to expand...

I agree on some fronts, not on the others.

Zetterberg and Nash were part of an SSP group of YG's. IIRC, while 6 YG's came out of a box, only one of them were from this group of SSP cards. Meaning you got 1/5th as many of them as you did from the more common YG's per case on average.

Pastrnak, Marner and Burns are overhyped? I don't know about that. Pastrnak tied for first in goals this past year, and has been a goal scoring machine the last two or three years. Marner is putting up really good points for a team that has a lot of offensive weapons. Burns has been an amazing offensive defenseman, and solid in his own end, for a long time now. Not sure why you say any of them are overhyped?

All Marchand cards can get burned in a bonfire for all I care :laugh:

For Binnington, like many, many, MANY other players, see his RC's get a huge boost after one great, long playoff run. It's not a new thing. That being said, he did have a rather off year this past season, but some regression can be expected. I think if he struggles again next season (whenever that is), you'll probably see some dipping of his cards.

Hughes: aren't ALL rookies priced initially because of hype? Again, not a new occurrence, so it's unclear why you think it this time.

Hall: a former Hart trophy winner, has put up big points on every team he's played for. I'm OK with where his card is priced.

Karlsson: no arguments here; I've never been a huge fan of his.


I agree with all of your undervalued assessments. Especially Staal, Kopitar, and Backstrom. Three dominant players for the last 10-15 years, and still have middling YG prices. I think a lot of it also has to do with these players aren't really the best from their particular RC year, so a lot of the lime light is taken away from them and onto the stars of those sets. Fleury in the Staal year, Malkin for Kopitar, and Toews and Kane for Backstrom.

Hart may be priced a little bit lower because most goalies start off low, then rise as their playing time goes up. Once he puts up some stronger numbers in Philly, I would wager we'll see a huge spike in his card prices.

Thanks for the debate to distract me from work :laugh:
 
Zetterberg- just really hard to find and he was a key component of the Red Wings dynasty.
Kopitar- great player on a bad team right now. Arguably the best player out of his draft class.
Patrick Kane- His cards are starting to finally appreciate (although that may just be the rising tide lifts all boats), but I have always been bullish on him. He will end up as the best U.S. born player ever- no offense to Pat L. and Mike M.
 
Karlsson is a first ballot HOF, even if his career ended today. 2 Norris, and two more runner ups. And he is only 30, and 2 years ago was almost PPG. Not sure what his hobby value should be, but his peak was epic.
 
dismonkey1 said:
Zetterberg- just really hard to find and he was a key component of the Red Wings dynasty.
Kopitar- great player on a bad team right now. Arguably the best player out of his draft class.
Patrick Kane- His cards are starting to finally appreciate (although that may just be the rising tide lifts all boats), but I have always been bullish on him. He will end up as the best U.S. born player ever- no offense to Pat L. and Mike M.
Click to expand...

This one I have to disagree big time on, Kings fan or not. Crosby is an absolute hockey LEGEND, possibly top 5 all time in the NHL history, and undoubtedly number 1 far and away in that 2005 draft class.
 
I am not trying to knock the accomplishment of some of these players. All I am saying is that there are some players In my mind that don't deserve the values they are going for. There are a lot of great players whose Young Guns go for rock bottom. Players like Giroux, Doughty, Weber, and Subban come to mind.
 
McDavid is currently overpriced. Bergeron’s PSA 10 Young Guns just went for an insane amount of money but I cannot recall if it was short printed or just condition sensitive.

I think Kucherov has some room to grow especially if he continues having 100ish point seasons. He has a realistic shot of breaking the all time record for career points scored by a Russian player in the NHL. Another cup or Conn Smythe could cement his legacy.
 
Datsyuk is overpriced. This is coming from someone with a psa 10 of both versions.


Edit: also, Nash and zetty are not overpriced. They are impossible to find. I have a 9.5 and psa 10 of each for both players. It took 18 months to find the four.
 
A few personal thoughts, building on what has already been mentioned about SP's:

- Burns, Karlsson: I don't see them as overvalued, but two of the few d-man being recognized for their skill/talents.
- Hall, Panarin: I think it hurts any YG when the player has most of their success with a different team than their RC (Burns perhaps an exception), but especially for these two guys who have been bouncing around from team to team and not really building a following. If Panarin sticks with the Rangers long enough and the team has success, I agree he could/should go higher.
- Marchand: As much as it pains me to say it I don't think he's overpriced for what him and the Bruins have accomplished.
- Kane: Agree he is undervalued; he is/will be the best US player of all time and I think that will be recognized eventually
- Barzal & Tarasenko: Agree they should be higher but not confident they will get the hobby love they probably deserve.
- Hedman: Ditto with Hedman but because he's a d-man and they never seem to get the same value

Edit: Oh, and agree with others that McDavid is way overpriced. Not because he's not a great player, but because the supply is so massive. Just for the examples of BGS 9.5's, there are 7000 McDavid's and he goes for $1k, vs. 2000 Crosby's at $2k. I'd take the Crosby's all day long.
 
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Jmarchand1981 said:
Datsyuk is overpriced. This is coming from someone with a psa 10 of both versions.


Edit: also, Nash and zetty are not overpriced. They are impossible to find. I have a 9.5 and psa 10 of each for both players. It took 18 months to find the four.
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So does a PSA 10 of Datsyuk YG include the chip at the top since that's how they came out of the packs or are there versions that didn't have that chip? I've personally never seen one without it.
 
Panarin and Rantanen suffer from overproduction, but if they stay great, they may finally get their due.

Poor Justin Huberdeau is all but ignored, but he's a great player.
 
2002-03 Upper Deck #234 Henrik Zetterberg YG RC $250 (Over Hyped)
2002-03 Upper Deck #232 Rick Nash YG RC $200 (Priced high for the player he could have been)


As has been said:

You are comparing players cards to other players and ignoring the distribution aspect.
Similarly look at The Cup ARP's of star players and compare the value of those that were #/99 to those that were #/249.
Scarcity drives the market as much as quality of play.
 
Rick Nash scored 437 goals in the NHL.... Pretty much all other YG's noted in this thread won't even sniff that goal total in their careers so not sure how he is 'priced high for the player he could have been'. Nash was a hell of a player.

Shinny new toy syndrome 100%.
 
Burner said:
So does a PSA 10 of Datsyuk YG include the chip at the top since that's how they came out of the packs or are there versions that didn't have that chip? I've personally never seen one without it.
Click to expand...

The one I have is clean. Maybe it was trimmed and submitted? I picked it up maybe 18 months ago. Knowing the inherent issues with the card, I definitely bought the grade. In fairness, I also only collect graded cards so I would have to buy the grade on this card.
 

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