Price vs. Value

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spiral8

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While reading the BTP's post that has become a how-cheap-can-you-find-a-box-for post, I started thinking about what wax is really "worth". Now I'm not going to lie, I love busting wax, as I'm always hopeful of getting that lottery pull or something unique for my PC...but with the current economic reality, and the Canadian dollar as it is at the moment, my breaking of wax has fallen off dramatically.

For the most part, whatever I break from wax gets turned into paypal funds via private sales and ebay, which I then turn into more wax busting. It's something that I enjoy, but I obviously enjoy it more when it's profitable. Lately, busting wax has been less than profitable, and for me, less than enjoyable.

By looking at the sets that have come and gone for 08/09 so far this season, there's been very little value to be had for busted wax on the secondary market. I guess UD Black should've been a warning sign to everyone that this year could be ugly. It had to be one of the poorest performers of singles for hockey on the secondary market, well, ever...

And though I really enjoyed busting Champs, there's now way in H E double hockey sticks that it should be priced over $140 CDN a box. The autos and jerseys that come out of that product simply should not justify that price whatsoever.

There are lots of UD products that fall into the catagory of overpriced upon release, but make no mistake, ITG products are susceptible to that pitfall as well. I really can't think of a single ITG main stream release (superboxes don't count) where the wax wasn't overpriced to some degree when first released. Maybe the first Heroes and Prospects release, but that's it. I don't think it's even a licensing issue, as older ITG (or BAP at the time) wax that was licensed by the NHL was more often than not overpriced upon its release.

Now don't get me wrong, 9 times out of 10 the GU cards from ITG that were always limited to 100 or less were of better quality than, let's say, a common UD GU card, but do people really care? If ebay and show sales are any indication, the answer is NO.


Now that we've heard that Dr. Price is craming more inserts into this year's Between the Pipes, that's obviously a good thing. I mean, in the past, a common GU card from any ITG product (or UD product for that matter) sometimes isn't even worth the price of a sealed pack on the secondary market. Now pulling an auto or GU piece of some shmuck is better than another common card, but is it really THAT much better?

More is better, but is it really more value?

So I'm trying to grasp at what type of value collectors and dealers are trying to get for the price that they are spending on wax. Anyone else have some opinions they wish to share?
 
For me, when I'm breaking a product there are two criteria I use to determine its value to me: 1) did I pull any Habs or other PC items? and 2) did my non-Habs, non-PC pulls represent something that I can move either for cash or cards?
When I took a look at the UD2 checklist, I could tell right off the bat that there was little point in buying any. There's very little in the way of 1, certainly not enough to justify dropping $90 in the hopes of getting the Price GU & inserts, and beyond a couple RCs, equally little in 2. Decision? No UD2 for me this year. The same thing applies to Ice as far as I'm concerned. I am still sitting on about half a dozen /1999 RCs and I think even a /999 because the cards are completely untradeable. Nobody's going to part with anything for a Tomi Maki or Darcy Campbell Ice RC.
Obviously we all like to think of having fun first when breaking wax. It's why OPC was so highly broken this year, after all. Even if you didn't hit the mojo in every pack, you know that there are enough set-builders out there doing the retro or gold sets that you don't need to worry about sitting on the stuff you don't care about for too long. But while fun is all well and good, there is that little part of you in the back of your mind that is seriously dreading the prospect of pulling nothing of any value, because not only are you paying the price, you're not getting anything back in return.
 
In a perfect world, it could come down to a formula:

Total Value of all cards in print run
divided by
# of boxes
=
Price per box.

Where do you think these releases fall? What kind of "card value:wax value" ratio are we getting.

Habs centennial is the only one I think may have been close. I can't imagine where Superlative would land...
 
If I can get half the boxes value i'd be ok with that. We all know that you can't expect to hit a home run on every box but if you are spending $130 on something like SPA and get a three $5 auto's......it really burns inside if you know what I mean. At least half value wouldn't hurt so bad and can be salvaged to fight another day. Nowadays I don't break wax anymore and either wait for the cup to try and hit the home run tin or buy singles. Definatley not as fun when buying singles but seriously more worth it. At least you get what you paid for!
 
I think it has to do with the RC class this year. Last year, I broke quite a bit and for the most part, came out at least even if not ahead when I busted between 1/2 case to just over a case of most products that came out. With Price, Toews, Kane and Backstrom all commanding decent $ at times last year, it was worth it. This year, with the rise of the US$, the economic issues and the poor RC class, there is hardly a product except for Habs 100th that I really came out ahead on. As a result, I've broken far less boxes, than last year. Most products now 3 boxes max. My last straw was a 09 SPGU case break that really stank the joint out.
 
I really can't say much about memorabilia, auto, and insert cards. Producing more of those only serves to saturate the secondary market, and make everything less desirable because there's so much choice. I can buy anybody's GU jersey card (maybe lest for Crosby, Gretzky, or Bobby Orr) for under $10 these days. Should card companies produce less then? No way, because who the heck would buy a box for $100 when jersey cards come 1:2000 packs? It's a tough situation here, but the bottom line is, the secondary market doestn' matter to card companies because their revenue comes from primary sales.

As for rookies, I think in some cases, dud rookies will have to be accepted. But a lot of the time, there are some quatlity rookie gems, who may not be playing so well in their first season currently, but will become superstars in a couple of years, and result in a spike in 'value.' I remember buying a Mike Green Ultimate rookie for $8 after his first, hardly inspiring rookie season. Three years later, I saw it being sold on ebay for $50. Now isn't that value enough for 1 card out of the pack? Same thing with Versteeg, he's soaring high on the market, but was a dud last year.

For rookies, it comes down to predicting who to hang on to, buying and selling at the right time. You win some, you lose some. If Stamkos becomes the player everyone thinks he'll be in a few years, there's no way his Young Guns card will be going for a measly $20. When people realize how good he is, the value will spike...hence the time to sell. If you wait too long, it will settle. Seems like a rather consistent trend, with anybody.

But, either way, in terms of wax breaking, if you're not enjoying it (for whatever reason), then it's probably not worth it.
 
Boxes wouldn't cost 100 if there were 1 jersey per 2000 packs. The biggest cost is getting the Athletes to commit. Letting their autos be sold or their GU stuff. Printing pictures costs nothing.

As for value thing, I agree. More hits doesn't mean much if they all suck. 06-07 SPA is the best example. Sure it IS possible to get Crosby AND Malkin RCs in one box, but what are the odds? Instead you end up with 3 scrub autos. So in the end more hits may not be better but we'll see what happens with BTP once the box breaks happen.
 
Personally, I see a repeat of 93-94 coming VERY soon. The hockey card market is ready to crash. I feel horrible saying it but I believe it's the truth
 
I would love to see some 90's stuff again. Most brands with high SRP has too much filler-cards, meaning an auto, a jersey/patch or card /100 sounds good but not when there's another 10 brands with the same looks and with identical checklists consisting of 50-75% common players.

It's a way of devaluate limited cards, the harder it is to get a specific type of card the more it's worth.

All parties lose interest, the ones paying the high SRP to break the product, the collectors with too many similiar cards to track down and I'm pretty sure the manufactors wish the collectors just stop whining about everything.
 
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Busting boxes to me I use this formula ( I made it up and I am pretty sure it is close to being right) In the ussual 12 box case

3 boxes will have 25% of their price in value
3 boxes will have 50% of their price in value
3 boxes will have 75% of their price in value
2 boxes will have 100% of their price in value
1 box will have 150%++ of their price in value


I see about 10-12 boxes a day busted and over 100 a week so I kind of keep track of what comes out while I am watching. I ussually get the boxes with 25% of their value no matter how many I open.
 
SHedberg said:
I guess that's why I love breaking H&P so much, and hate everything else this year. :laugh:
Click to expand...

I've seen a lot of ugly boxes of H&P every year. You might get some low numbered cards, but most of the hits barely cover the cost of three or four packs. ITG products have exactly the same problems as Upper Deck products have this year. Not much return for the hits when you get them.
 
abbysportscards said:
I just don't understand why ITG pruducts are the same price as UD products, when ITG has no NHL licensing
Click to expand...

Because even though ITG doesn't have many of those mega-pulls (no new autos from Gretzky, Howe, Orr, Crosby, or official rookies) you still end up getting good value in almost every box. There are many others out there like me who would gladly give up the chance at a $500 card to avoid the horrible feeling I used to get from breaking UD wax.
 
leafs4_cup said:
Because even though ITG doesn't have many of those mega-pulls (no new autos from Gretzky, Howe, Orr, Crosby, or official rookies) you still end up getting good value in almost every box. There are many others out there like me who would gladly give up the chance at a $500 card to avoid the horrible feeling I used to get from breaking UD wax.
Click to expand...


OK, let's try and steer clear of the UD vs. ITG debate, because this topic isn't about that. I think both companies are guilty of releasing TONS of over priced products that deliver very little bang for their buck.
 
spiral8 said:
OK, let's try and steer clear of the UD vs. ITG debate, because this topic isn't about that. I think both companies are guilty of releasing TONS of over priced products that deliver very little bang for their buck.
Click to expand...

Sorry, that's not what I was going for with my post. What I meant to convey is that, in my opinion and experience, the average box of an ITG product will contain more "value". Meanwhile, most UD products offer the chance at that big lottery hit.

"So I'm trying to grasp at what type of value collectors and dealers are trying to get for the price that they are spending on wax. Anyone else have some opinions they wish to share?"

To answer the question directly: I gravitate towards ITG products because even though I know there is less chance I am going to make a profit, I also feel like there is less chance I am going to feel horribly cheated. In other words, I don't expect the "value" of my box to equal the cash value I can get for all of the cards. I am hoping for an exciting and entertaining break that will leave me with a handful of pulls that genuinely made me happy, instead of worrying or dreading that this may be my box hit.
 
The last time packs were worth what they cost is when they were .15 - 25 cents. I think all of the boxes are over priced. I love breaking packs as much as anyone but I really do feel that the collectors have shot themselves in the foot by paying so much for these products.

On the question of price vs value ask yourself this, realistically how often do you break even or feel like you recieved good value from your box. I would say that I am unhappy at least 9 times out of 10. I always feel like I was ripped of but my addiction to cardboard makes me buy regardless.
 

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