WatchMyBreaks
Registered Trader,
Anyone have a ballpark figure on the total number of Young Guns printed for yearly stars like Matthews, McDavid, Crosby, etc?
Realistic Print Run of Young Guns
- Thread starter WatchMyBreaks
- Start date
hen44jay
Verified Trader,
Not sure about numbers but one thing I do know, is the McDavid YG print run is probably 100x more than the Crosby YG print run!
Boom Boom
Verified Trader,
Aside from print run here are some stats that were posted in an earlier thread about graded copies of these cards.
Crosby
PSA Slabbed YG's = 605
PSA 10's = 430
BGS Slabbed YG's = 2297
BGS 9.5 & 10's = 1653
McDavid
PSA Slabbed YG's = 1055
PSA 10's = 740
BGS Slabbed YG's = 4471
BGS 9.5 & 10's = 3876
Crosby
PSA Slabbed YG's = 605
PSA 10's = 430
BGS Slabbed YG's = 2297
BGS 9.5 & 10's = 1653
McDavid
PSA Slabbed YG's = 1055
PSA 10's = 740
BGS Slabbed YG's = 4471
BGS 9.5 & 10's = 3876
M35Richter
Verified Trader,
Great stats showing what is really going on here. If I am not mistaken, these totals also do not take into account RCR (Raw Card Review) copies that have never or have yet to be hard slabbed by BGS. Correct?
Correct. Those were stats I pulled from the two pop reports last week.
I'd assume that the Matthews print run is at least as many as McDavid was. Meaning we could be in for Selanne and Forsberg rookie card like values again once people realize that owning multiples of these is a losers game.
creasecollector
Verified Trader ,
Wow.
winniescards
Verified Trader,
While I agree that that stats may be accurate.The idea of grading cards even brand new cards has increased dramatically in the 10-11 years between Crosby and McDavid. People
who are into this for profit are using the grading to earn bigger returns on their investments.So yes there are likely more McDavid YGs produced.But I do not see the stats on grading as an accurate account as to how many were really produced.
who are into this for profit are using the grading to earn bigger returns on their investments.So yes there are likely more McDavid YGs produced.But I do not see the stats on grading as an accurate account as to how many were really produced.
DredJAw
Upstanding Member,
Are Crosby YG's not eligible to be graded?
People who are sending in Mcdavid YG's to grade can easily go to their box and send in their raw Crosby's to grade as well.
In the comic book world, the census report is EXTREMELY accurate in getting a good sense of how many books are out there. It's a very accurate picture.
DredJAw
Upstanding Member,
Actually, another take, the Crosby YG has like a 10 year head start on getting graded.
So yeah... the census report is a good measure.
So yeah... the census report is a good measure.
malsk
New Member, Must Send First
Here is another take....
I do a lot of grading...I use a 10x loop. If a card does not look like it will come back a 9.5 I don't waste my time sending it in. Anyone who grades a lot of new cards does the same thing I do. It can skew the pop report because the bad cards don't get sent in.
I graded a lot of Crosby when they first came out. They where tough to get a 9.5. I only sent in what I thought would come back a 9.5...I didn't send in a whole lot.
McDavid I have also sent in a bunch....very very easy to get a 9.5. I sent 10 in at the expo and every one came back a 9.5....that never happens.
I am not saying there isn't more McDavid's out there. UD printed the crap out of UD1 but the Population report doesn't tell the whole story.
People sending to BGS/PSA have gotten really good at figuring out what they have first before sending in.
I do a lot of grading...I use a 10x loop. If a card does not look like it will come back a 9.5 I don't waste my time sending it in. Anyone who grades a lot of new cards does the same thing I do. It can skew the pop report because the bad cards don't get sent in.
I graded a lot of Crosby when they first came out. They where tough to get a 9.5. I only sent in what I thought would come back a 9.5...I didn't send in a whole lot.
McDavid I have also sent in a bunch....very very easy to get a 9.5. I sent 10 in at the expo and every one came back a 9.5....that never happens.
I am not saying there isn't more McDavid's out there. UD printed the crap out of UD1 but the Population report doesn't tell the whole story.
People sending to BGS/PSA have gotten really good at figuring out what they have first before sending in.
golgo13
Verified Trader,
I know there are a ton of McJesus out there, but they seem to be increasing in value, no?
geschrocks33
Verified Trader,
I don't always use a loop, but I definitely inspect my cards thoroughly before sending them in, and only send it what I think will come back 9.5 or higher as well.
cremona71
Verified Trader,
I would not listen to those BGS stats when concerning the 9's or 9.5's. People who submit will send theirs in and get a 9 or 9.5. They will then crack the case and resubmit fishing for a 10. So when BGS adds to their stats they keeping adding the resubmitted numbers as well. They are inflated. You could probably deduct 20-25%
numbern9ne
Verified Trader,
Some fuzzy math...
On ePack- at the height of Series 1, each base card had roughly 10,000
10,000 base x 200 base cards = 2 million
I have heard that 20% went to ePack so 2 million x 5 (which is the other 80% physically released) = 10 million base cards
Most packs of S1 had one card that wasn't base so...
10 million / 7 base card per pack = roughly 1.42 million packs of S1
There was a YG in every 4 packs = roughly 350,000 Young Guns
350,000 Young Guns / 50 in the set = roughly 7000 of each YG?
Mind you, these are based off McDavid year Series 1 which I know was heavily produced.
I know someone years ago tackled the Crosby year Series 1 and came up with roughly 5000 a piece as the number of YGs printed of each player.
On ePack- at the height of Series 1, each base card had roughly 10,000
10,000 base x 200 base cards = 2 million
I have heard that 20% went to ePack so 2 million x 5 (which is the other 80% physically released) = 10 million base cards
Most packs of S1 had one card that wasn't base so...
10 million / 7 base card per pack = roughly 1.42 million packs of S1
There was a YG in every 4 packs = roughly 350,000 Young Guns
350,000 Young Guns / 50 in the set = roughly 7000 of each YG?
Mind you, these are based off McDavid year Series 1 which I know was heavily produced.
I know someone years ago tackled the Crosby year Series 1 and came up with roughly 5000 a piece as the number of YGs printed of each player.
DredJAw
Upstanding Member,
I feel there are far more than 7000 YG's produced.
Kind of crazy.... The Walking Dead #1 had about 7K issues produced and that was considered EXTREMELY low printed. Like... Saga #1 (another popular book) had upwards of 55K printed a few years ago and that was even a little low. Most are in the 75K-100K range.
Pretty interesting the discrepancy.
7000 YG's printed? Wow there are a ton!
7000 #1's printed? Holy crap, what a super scarce low print run!
Kind of crazy.... The Walking Dead #1 had about 7K issues produced and that was considered EXTREMELY low printed. Like... Saga #1 (another popular book) had upwards of 55K printed a few years ago and that was even a little low. Most are in the 75K-100K range.
Pretty interesting the discrepancy.
7000 YG's printed? Wow there are a ton!
7000 #1's printed? Holy crap, what a super scarce low print run!
odjickfan
Verified Trader,
Don't forget retail|
Fritz
Nitwit in good standing,
ssinger
Verified Trader,
I believe the math on the Hobby for the Crosby year worked out to approximately 7,000 - then adding retail and all of the other variations and I would expect that there would be in the range of 20,000 copies.
I would think there would be at a minimum twice the number of McDavid if not more.
Just doing this from memory.
I would think there would be at a minimum twice the number of McDavid if not more.
Just doing this from memory.
fuzzyNutz
New Member, Must Send First
This is a good article about Crosby/McDavid & UD admitting they produced too many cards for Crosby's rookie year. They didn't want to make the same mistake with McGigglyPuff.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/spor...nor-mcdavids-nhl-rookie-card/article26189641/
"Mr. Carlin says Upper Deck released too many Crosby cards in his rookie season, and has learned from that mistake. The fewer cards available, the more they are worth to collectors.
If you produce so many that the content is watered down, then the cards aren’t perceived as a collectible any more,” he says. “We understand now that it is not such a bad thing if people can’t find one. It helps create a buzz."
I can only speak from my own experience, in opening both retail and hobby, that getting a McD would have been cheaper to just buy outright on evilbay. With that being said, my 8yr old son bought 1 box of retail & hit a McD YG right off the bat.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/spor...nor-mcdavids-nhl-rookie-card/article26189641/
"Mr. Carlin says Upper Deck released too many Crosby cards in his rookie season, and has learned from that mistake. The fewer cards available, the more they are worth to collectors.
If you produce so many that the content is watered down, then the cards aren’t perceived as a collectible any more,” he says. “We understand now that it is not such a bad thing if people can’t find one. It helps create a buzz."
I can only speak from my own experience, in opening both retail and hobby, that getting a McD would have been cheaper to just buy outright on evilbay. With that being said, my 8yr old son bought 1 box of retail & hit a McD YG right off the bat.
malsk
New Member, Must Send First
Thanks for posting the article...
This is my problem with UD...they lie so freakin much! They printed the crap out of UD1. I can still buy it at my local Walmart. They learned nothing. If you want a hobby box they can easily be found for about $110US. They are cheaper then this years which tells me they are way over produced.
This is my problem with UD...they lie so freakin much! They printed the crap out of UD1. I can still buy it at my local Walmart. They learned nothing. If you want a hobby box they can easily be found for about $110US. They are cheaper then this years which tells me they are way over produced.
