Sets Ed: 2014-15 Upper Deck Ice

numbern9ne

numbern9ne

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2014-15 Upper Deck Ice
662 Unique Cards
84 Rookie Cards
252 Auto Cards
257 Mem Cards
75 Auto / Mem Cards
11 One of Ones

Base (84) NNO

Ice Premieres (84) xxx/999-99
Ice Premieres Signatures (33) NNO
Ice Premieres Patch (41) xx/10

Glacial Graphs (26) NNO
Glacial Graphs Gold (25) NNO
Glacial Graphs Black (26) xx/10
Rinkside Signings (34) NNO

Fresh Threads (20) NNO
Fresh Threads Gold (19) xx/30-10
Fresh Threads Black (19) x/5
Frozen Fabrics (20) NNO
Frozen Fabrics Gold (21) xx/30-10
Frozen Fabrics Black (21) x/5
Frozen Foursomes (15) NNO
Frozen Foursomes Gold (15) xx/30-10
Frozen Foursomes Black (17) x/5

Signature Swatches (10) NNO
Signature Swatches Gold (12) xx/10-4
Signature Swatches Black (7) 1 of 1

UD Black (30) xx/99
UD Black Rookies (30) xxx/199
UD Black Lustrous Rookies Signatures (8) xxx/349
UD Black Lustrous Materials (15) NNO
UD Black Lustrous Signatures (15) xx/99-25


Update From 2015-16 Upper Deck Ice
Ice Premieres Signatures (1) NNO
Glacial Graphs (2) NNO
Glacial Graphs Gold (2) NNO
Glacial Graphs Black (2) xx/10
Rinkside Signings (3) NNO
Signature Swatches Gold (1) xx/10
Signature Swatches Black (4) 1 of 1
 
Last edited:
Base Set (168)
1 Claude Giroux Philadelphia Flyers
2 Shea Weber Nashville Predators
3 Rick Nash New York Rangers
4 Phil Kessel Toronto Maple Leafs
5 Duncan Keith Chicago Blackhawks
6 Jamie Benn Dallas Stars
7 Anze Kopitar Los Angeles Kings
8 Sean Monahan Calgary Flames
9 Alexander Ovechkin Washington Capitals
10 Jordan Eberle Edmonton Oilers
11 Blake Wheeler Winnipeg Jets
12 Ryan Getzlaf Anaheim Ducks
13 Zdeno Chara Boston Bruins
14 Jonathan Toews Chicago Blackhawks
15 Martin St. Louis New York Rangers
16 Henrik Zetterberg Detroit Red Wings
17 John Tavares New York Islanders
18 Drew Doughty Los Angeles Kings
19 Jonathan Huberdeau Florida Panthers
20 Max Pacioretty Montreal Canadiens
21 Steven Stamkos Tampa Bay Lightning
22 P.K. Subban Montreal Canadiens
23 Cody Hodgson Buffalo Sabres
24 Nathan MacKinnon Colorado Avalanche
25 T.J. Oshie St. Louis Blues
26 Henrik Sedin Vancouver Canucks
27 Matt Duchene Colorado Avalanche
28 Zach Parise Minnesota Wild
29 Joe Pavelski San Jose Sharks
30 Patrice Bergeron Boston Bruins
31 Pavel Datsyuk Detroit Red Wings
32 Erik Karlsson Ottawa Senators
33 Eric Staal Carolina Hurricanes
34 Ryan Johansen Columbus Blue Jackets
35 Patrick Kane Chicago Blackhawks
36 Marian Gaborik Los Angeles Kings
37 Jaromir Jagr New Jersey Devils
38 Evgeni Malkin Pittsburgh Penguins
39 Shane Doan Arizona Coyotes
40 Sidney Crosby Pittsburgh Penguins
41 Taylor Hall Edmonton Oilers
42 Tyler Seguin Dallas Stars
43 Ben Bishop Tampa Bay Lightning
44 Corey Crawford Chicago Blackhawks
45 Jonathan Bernier Toronto Maple Leafs
46 Cam Ward Carolina Hurricanes
47 Antti Niemi San Jose Sharks
48 Cory Schneider New Jersey Devils
49 Craig Anderson Ottawa Senators
50 Martin Brodeur St. Louis Blues
51 Philipp Grubauer Washington Capitals
52 Roberto Luongo Florida Panthers
53 Karri Ramo Calgary Flames
54 Tuukka Rask Boston Bruins
55 Steve Mason Philadelphia Flyers
56 Carey Price Montreal Canadiens
57 Ben Scrivens Edmonton Oilers
58 Ryan Miller Vancouver Canucks
59 Jhonas Enroth Buffalo Sabres
60 Mike Smith Arizona Coyotes
61 Ondrej Pavelec Winnipeg Jets
62 Kari Lehtonen Dallas Stars
63 Marc-Andre Fleury Pittsburgh Penguins
64 Henrik Lundqvist New York Rangers
65 Jaroslav Halak New York Islanders
66 Darcy Kuemper Minnesota Wild
67 Jonathan Quick Los Angeles Kings
68 Pekka Rinne Nashville Predators
69 Semyon Varlamov Colorado Avalanche
70 John Gibson Anaheim Ducks
71 Jim Howard Detroit Red Wings
72 Sergei Bobrovsky Columbus Blue Jackets
73 Patrick Roy Montreal Canadiens
74 Ray Bourque Boston Bruins
75 Steve Yzerman Detroit Red Wings
76 Wayne Gretzky Edmonton Oilers
77 Peter Forsberg Colorado Avalanche
78 Guy Lafleur Montreal Canadiens
79 Bobby Hull Chicago Blackhawks
80 Mario Lemieux Pittsburgh Penguins
81 Bobby Orr Boston Bruins
82 Jean Beliveau Montreal Canadiens
83 Joe Sakic Colorado Avalanche
84 Mike Bossy New York Islanders
85 Brandon Defazio Vancouver Canucks 999
86 Michael Ferland Calgary Flames 999
87 Mike Halmo New York Islanders 999
88 Joe Morrow Boston Bruins 999
89 Joonas Nattinen Montreal Canadiens 999
90 Liam O'Brien Washington Capitals 999
91 Justin Hodgman Arizona Coyotes 999
92 Trevor van Riemsdyk Chicago Blackhawks 999
93 Dennis Everberg Colorado Avalanche 999
94 Andrej Nestrasil Carolina Hurricanes 999
95 Laurent Brossoit Edmonton Oilers 999
96 Andy Andreoff Los Angeles Kings 999
97 Christian Folin Minnesota Wild 999
98 Nicolas Deslauriers Buffalo Sabres 999
99 Mark Visentin Arizona Coyotes 999
100 Patrik Nemeth Dallas Stars 999
101 Corban Knight Calgary Flames 999
102 Scott Mayfield New York Islanders 999
103 Michael Zalewski Vancouver Canucks 999
104 Bogdan Yakimov Edmonton Oilers 999
105 Pierre-Edouard Bellemare Philadelphia Flyers 999
106 Brandon Kozun Toronto Maple Leafs 999
107 Jake McCabe Buffalo Sabres 999
108 Scott Wilson Pittsburgh Penguins 999
109 Petter Granberg Toronto Maple Leafs 999
110 Andrew Agozzino Colorado Avalanche 999
111 Greg McKegg Toronto Maple Leafs 999
112 Curtis McKenzie Dallas Stars 999
113 Colton Sissons Nashville Predators 999
114 Oscar Klefbom Edmonton Oilers 999
115 Markus Granlund Calgary Flames 799
116 Scott Darling Chicago Blackhawks 799
117 Rocco Grimaldi Florida Panthers 799
118 William Karlsson Anaheim Ducks 799
119 Barclay Goodrow San Jose Sharks 799
120 Scott Harrington Pittsburgh Penguins 799
121 Jori Lehtera St. Louis Blues 799
122 Brett Ritchie Dallas Stars 799
123 Jordan Binnington St. Louis Blues 799
124 Teemu Pulkkinen Detroit Red Wings 799
125 Colin Smith Colorado Avalanche 799
126 Phillip Danault Chicago Blackhawks 799
127 Ryan Sproul Detroit Red Wings 499
128 Mirco Mueller San Jose Sharks 499
129 Adam Lowry Winnipeg Jets 499
130 Seth Helgeson New Jersey Devils 499
131 John Klingberg Dallas Stars 499
132 Ty Rattie St. Louis Blues 499
133 Brandon Gormley Arizona Coyotes 499
134 Marko Dano Columbus Blue Jackets 499
135 Vincent Trocheck Florida Panthers 499
136 Calle Jarnkrok Nashville Predators 499
137 Kerby Rychel Columbus Blue Jackets 499
138 Joey Hishon Colorado Avalanche 499
139 Josh Jooris Calgary Flames 499
140 Adam Clendening Chicago Blackhawks 499
141 Alexander Khokhlachev Boston Bruins 499
142 Vladislav Namestnikov Tampa Bay Lightning 499
143 Victor Rask Carolina Hurricanes 499
144 Chris Tierney San Jose Sharks 499
145 Damon Severson New Jersey Devils 499
146 Stuart Percy Toronto Maple Leafs 499
147 Kevin Hayes New York Rangers 249
148 Andrei Vasilevskiy Tampa Bay Lightning 249
149 Sven Andrighetto Montreal Canadiens 249
150 Jiri Sekac Montreal Canadiens 249
151 Derrick Pouliot Pittsburgh Penguins 249
152 Seth Griffith Boston Bruins 249
153 Darnell Nurse Edmonton Oilers 249
154 Griffin Reinhart New York Islanders 249
155 Shayne Gostisbehere Philadelphia Flyers 249
156 Alexander Wennberg Columbus Blue Jackets 249
157 Anthony Duclair New York Rangers 249
158 Evgeny Kuznetsov Washington Capitals 249
159 David Pastrnak Boston Bruins 99
160 Sam Reinhart Buffalo Sabres 99
161 Leon Draisaitl Edmonton Oilers 99
162 Aaron Ekblad Florida Panthers 99
163 Curtis Lazar Ottawa Senators 99
164 Bo Horvat Vancouver Canucks 99
165 Teuvo Teravainen Chicago Blackhawks 99
166 Jonathan Drouin Tampa Bay Lightning 99
167 Johnny Gaudreau Calgary Flames 99
168 Andre Burakovsky Washington Capitals 99
 
Odds
Base Goalies (43-72) 1:3
Base Legends (73-84) 1:7
Ice Premieres Signatures 1:16
Fresh Threads 1:21
Frozen Fabrics 1:21
Frozen Foursomes 1:35
Glacial Graphs 1:36
UD Black Lustrous Materials 1:42
Rinkside Signings 1:64
Glacial Graphs Gold 1:128
Signature Swatches 1:128

Ice Premieres Signatures
Group A 1:140
AB Andre Burakovsky Washington Capitals
AL Adam Lowry Winnipeg Jets
JG Johnny Gaudreau Calgary Flames
JL Jori Lehtera St. Louis Blues
JM Jake McCabe Buffalo Sabres
LB Laurent Brossoit Edmonton Oilers
VT Vincent Trocheck Florida Panthers

Group B 1:39
AD Anthony Duclair New York Rangers
AE Aaron Ekblad Florida Panthers
AK Alexander Khokhlachev Boston Bruins
AW Alexander Wennberg Columbus Blue Jackets
CJ Calle Jarnkrok Nashville Predators
CL Curtis Lazar Ottawa Senators
DN Darnell Nurse Edmonton Oilers
GR Griffin Reinhart New York Islanders
JD Jonathan Drouin Tampa Bay Lightning
LD Leon Draisaitl Edmonton Oilers
MD Marko Dano Columbus Blue Jackets
PN Patrik Nemeth Dallas Stars
SR Sam Reinhart Buffalo Sabres
TP Teemu Pulkkinen Detroit Red Wings
TR Ty Rattie St. Louis Blues

Group C 1:33
BG Brandon Gormley Arizona Coyotes
EK Evgeny Kuznetsov Washington Capitals
GO Shayne Gostisbehere Philadelphia Flyers
JH Joey Hishon Colorado Avalanche
JS Jiri Sekac Montreal Canadiens
KH Kevin Hayes New York Rangers
MM Mirco Mueller San Jose Sharks
SG Seth Griffith Boston Bruins
SP Stuart Percy Toronto Maple Leafs
TT Teuvo Teravainen Chicago Blackhawks
VR Victor Rask Carolina Hurricanes

Glacial Graphs
Group A 1:660
BR Dustin Brown Los Angeles Kings
JT John Tavares New York Islanders
RB Bobby Ryan Ottawa Senators
TL Trevor Linden Vancouver Canucks

Group B 1:265
CP Carey Price Montreal Canadiens
NL Nicklas Lidstrom Detroit Red Wings
PE Corey Perry Anaheim Ducks
PS Patrick Sharp Chicago Blackhawks
TE Tony Esposito Chicago Blackhawks

Group C 1:110
AO Adam Oates Boston Bruins
CO Colton Orr Toronto Maple Leafs
JB Jonathan Bernier Toronto Maple Leafs
JL John LeClair Philadelphia Flyers
JP Joe Pavelski San Jose Sharks
KT Kyle Turris Ottawa Senators
ML Mike Liut Hartford Whalers
TT Tomas Tatar Detroit Red Wings

Group D 1:74
AB Aleksander Barkov Florida Panthers
CH Carl Hagelin New York Rangers
DD Danny DeKeyser Detroit Red Wings
DK Darcy Kuemper Minnesota Wild
MK Mike Krushelnyski Edmonton Oilers
MP Max Pacioretty Montreal Canadiens
OM Olli Maatta Pittsburgh Penguins
SA Brandon Saad Chicago Blackhawks
TH Tomas Hertl San Jose Sharks

Glacial Graphs Gold
Group A 1:3925
BR Dustin Brown Los Angeles Kings
JL John LeClair Philadelphia Flyers
RB Bobby Ryan Ottawa Senators

Group B 1:1050
AB Aleksander Barkov Florida Panthers
CP Carey Price Montreal Canadiens
MP Max Pacioretty Montreal Canadiens
TE Tony Esposito Chicago Blackhawks
TL Trevor Linden Vancouver Canucks

Group C 1:850
KT Kyle Turris Ottawa Senators
NL Nicklas Lidstrom Detroit Red Wings
PE Corey Perry Anaheim Ducks
SA Brandon Saad Chicago Blackhawks

Group D 1:185
AO Adam Oates Boston Bruins
CH Carl Hagelin New York Rangers
CO Colton Orr Toronto Maple Leafs
DD Danny DeKeyser Detroit Red Wings
DK Darcy Kuemper Minnesota Wild
JB Jonathan Bernier Toronto Maple Leafs
JP Joe Pavelski San Jose Sharks
JT John Tavares New York Islanders
MK Mike Krushelnyski Edmonton Oilers
ML Mike Liut Hartford Whalers
OM Olli Maatta Pittsburgh Penguins
TH Tomas Hertl San Jose Sharks
TT Tomas Tatar Detroit Red Wings

Rinkside Signings
Group A 1:1119
BH Brett Hull St. Louis Blues
MF Marc-Andre Fleury Pittsburgh Penguins
PD Pavel Datsyuk Detroit Red Wings
ZP Zach Parise Minnesota Wild

Group B 1:320
CP Corey Perry Anaheim Ducks
ES Eric Staal Carolina Hurricanes
JR Jeremy Roenick Chicago Blackhawks
JS Joe Sakic Colorado Avalanche
JT Jonathan Toews Chicago Blackhawks
JV John Vanbiesbrouck New York Rangers
LC Logan Couture San Jose Sharks
NY Nail Yakupov Edmonton Oilers
SW Shea Weber Nashville Predators
TH Taylor Hall Edmonton Oilers

Group C 1:232
AG Alex Galchenyuk Montreal Canadiens
AI Arturs Irbe San Jose Sharks
DP Dion Phaneuf Toronto Maple Leafs
FP Felix Potvin Toronto Maple Leafs
JF Johan Franzen Detroit Red Wings
PM Petr Mrazek Detroit Red Wings
SH Andrew Shaw Chicago Blackhawks
TB Tom Barrasso Pittsburgh Penguins
VA James van Riemsdyk Toronto Maple Leafs

Group D 1:137
AC Andrew Cogliano Anaheim Ducks
BD Brandon Dubinsky Columbus Blue Jackets
BS Brandon Saad Chicago Blackhawks
FA Frederik Andersen Anaheim Ducks
GN Gustav Nyquist Detroit Red Wings
MR Morgan Rielly Toronto Maple Leafs
PG Philipp Grubauer Washington Capitals
RM Ryan McDonagh New York Rangers
RO Ryan O'Reilly Colorado Avalanche
TK Torey Krug Boston Bruins
TR Jacob Trouba Winnipeg Jets

Frozen Fabrics
Group A 1:260
GF Grant Fuhr Edmonton Oilers
LR Larry Robinson Montreal Canadiens
MM Mark Messier New York Rangers
RO Patrick Roy Colorado Avalanche

Group B 1:160
AO Alexander Ovechkin Washington Capitals
PS Patrick Sharp Chicago Blackhawks
SU P.K. Subban Montreal Canadiens

Group C 1:27
AP Alex Pietrangelo St. Louis Blues
BD Brandon Dubinsky Columbus Blue Jackets
BS Ben Scrivens Edmonton Oilers
CP Corey Perry Anaheim Ducks
GL Gabriel Landeskog Colorado Avalanche
HZ Henrik Zetterberg Detroit Red Wings
MO Sean Monahan Calgary Flames
MR Morgan Rielly Toronto Maple Leafs
PR Pekka Rinne Nashville Predators
RN Rick Nash New York Rangers
RS Ryan Strome New York Islanders
SB Sergei Bobrovsky Columbus Blue Jackets
SM Steve Mason Philadelphia Flyers

Frozen Foursomes
Group A 1:1600
BOS Tuukka Rask/Alexander Khokhlachev/Zdeno Chara/Milan Lucic

Group B 1:265
AVS Patrick Roy/Peter Forsberg/Joe Sakic/Rob Blake
LAK Anze Kopitar/Jeff Carter/Tyler Toffoli/Slava Voynov
NJD Cory Schneider/Adam Henrique/Damien Brunner/Jaromir Jagr

Group C 1:41
BEES Adam Oates/Glen Murray/Ray Bourque/Pete Peeters
CAN1 Dougie Hamilton/Brendan Gallagher/Jonathan Huberdeau/Thomas Hickey
CAN2 Boone Jenner/Ryan Murray/Ryan Strome/Freddie Hamilton
CAPS Alexander Ovechkin/Braden Holtby/Evgeny Kuznetsov/Andre Burakovsky
DAL Ed Belfour/Brett Hull/Kari Lehtonen/Jamie Benn
KINGS Jonathan Quick/Drew Doughty/Slava Voynov/Tyler Toffoli
MTL Carey Price/P.K. Subban/Alex Galchenyuk/Brendan Gallagher
NYR Chris Kreider/Mats Zuccarello/Derek Stepan/Ryan McDonagh
RC Aaron Ekblad/Curtis Lazar/Sam Reinhart/Leon Draisaitl
RC2 Evgeny Kuznetsov/Teuvo Teravainen/Johnny Gaudreau/Vladislav Namestnikov
TC Eric Staal/Alex Pietrangelo/Jamie Benn/Sean Couturier

Signature Swatches
Group A 1:4180
SC Sidney Crosby Pittsburgh Penguins

Group B 1:3165
WG Wayne Gretzky Los Angeles Kings

Group C 1:1395
MF Marc-Andre Fleury Pittsburgh Penguins

Group D 1:152
AK Anze Kopitar Los Angeles Kings
DH Dale Hawerchuk Winnipeg Jets
DS Denis Savard Montreal Canadiens
JP Joe Pavelski San Jose Sharks
JR Jeremy Roenick Philadelphia Flyers
MG Mike Gartner Washington Capitals
PR Pekka Rinne Nashville Predators
 
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Buybacks/Specialties

-None-

Team Card Breakdown
Edmonton 50
Montreal 49
Los Angeles 46
Boston 45
Chicago 45
New York R 39
Washington 35
Colorado 33
Canada 32
Dallas 29
Detroit 28
Toronto 28
Columbus 27
Pittsburgh 27
San Jose 23
New York I 22
Calgary 21
Florida 19
Philadelphia 19
Ottawa 18
Tampa Bay 18
Anaheim 17
Buffalo 17
Nashville 16
St Louis 16
New Jersey 14
Vancouver 13
Winnipeg 13
Carolina 12
Minnesota 9
Arizona 8

Redemptions (Exp: March 25, 2017)
Ice Premieres Signatures
Alexander Wennberg NNO
Johnny Gaudreau NNO
Kevin Hayes NNO

Ice Premieres Patch
Adam Lowry /10
Alexander Wennberg /10
Andy Andreoff /10
Anthony Duclair /10
Calle Jarnkrok /10
Chris Tierney /10
Christian Folin /10
Curtis McKenzie /10
Jake McCabe /10
Jiri Sekac /10
Johnny Gaudreau /10
Jori Lehtera /10
Kevin Hayes /10
Marcus Granlund /10
Oscar Klefbom /10
Seth Griffith /10
Shayne Gostisbehere /10
Trevor van Riemsdyk /10
William Karlsson /10

Rinkside Signings
Jeremy Roenick NNO
Joe Sakic NNO

Signature Swatches
Denis Savard NNO
Jeremy Roenick NNO
Sidney Crosby NNO

Signature Swatches Gold
Denis Savard /8
Jeremy Roenick /8
Sidney Crosby /5
Teemu Selanne /10

UD Black Lustrous Rookies Signatures
Johnny Gaudreau /349

UD Black Lustrous Signatures
Evgeni Malkin /49
Jaromir Jagr /49
Martin St Louis /49
Patrick Roy /99
Rick Nash /25
Sidney Crosby /25
Teemu Selanne /99
 
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Hmmmm...I only count 10 Team cards for the Canucks. I guess my wallet won't complain; but that's just sad.
 
I'd appreciate someone double checking my math here.

I'm trying to work out the odds of pull a Tier 1 Rookie.

Tier 5 Rookies (30 Cards * 999) = 29970 Cards
Tier 4 Rookies (12 Cards * 799) = 9588 Cards
Tier 3 Rookies (20 Cards * 499) = 9980 Cards
Tier 2 Rookies (12 Cards * 249) = 2988 Cards
Tier 1 Rookies (10 Cards * 99) = 990 Cards

Total Number of Rookies = 53516 Cards

Per Cardboard Connection:

Number of Ice Premieres Per Box = 3

Ergo Number of Ice Premieres Per Case (8 Boxes) = 24

Rough Number of Cases = (53516 RCs/ 24RCs) = 2229, but assume 2220 (so that the stated odds are under expected value - i.e. some boxes will 'overperform' and have more than 3 RCs).

Approximate distribution of Rookies per case

Tier 5 Rookies (29970 Cards/2220 Cases) = 13.50 (13-14 per case)
Tier 4 Rookies (9588 Cards /2220 Cases) = 4.31 (4-5 per case)
Tier 3 Rookies (9980 Cards /2220 Cases) = 4.50 (4-5 per case)
Tier 2 Rookies (2988 Cards /2200 Cases) = 1.36 (1-2 per case)
Tier 1 Rookies (990 Cards/2220 Cases) = 0.45 (Almost 1 every 2 cases)
 
Ice Premieres Patches /10

Confirmed Live
Aaron Ekblad
Alexander Khokhlachev
Andre Burakovsky
Brandon Gormley
Colton Sissons
Curtis Lazar
Damon Severson
Darnell Nurse
Evgeny Kuznetsov
Griffin Reinhart
Joey Hishon
Jonathan Drouin
Leon Draisaitl
Marko Dano
Mirco Mueller
Sam Reinhart
Stuart Percy
Teemu Pulkkinen
Teuvo Teravainen
Ty Rattie
Victor Rask
Vincent Trocheck

Confirmed Redemption
Adam Lowry
Alexander Wennberg
Andy Andreoff
Anthony Duclair
Calle Jarnkrok
Chris Tierney
Christian Folin
Curtis McKenzie
Jake McCabe
Jiri Sekac
Johnny Gaudreau
Jori Lehtera
Kevin Hayes
Markus Granlund
Oscar Klefbom
Seth Griffith
Shayne Gostisbehere
Trevor van Riemsdyk
William Karlsson
 
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numbern9ne said:
Ice Premieres Patches /10

Confirmed Live
Aaron Ekblad
Alexander Khokhlachev
Andre Burakovsky
Brandon Gormley
Colton Sissons
Darnell Nurse
Evgeny Kuznetsov
Griffin Reinhart
Joey Hishon
Jonathan Drouin
Marko Dano
Sam Reinhart
Teemu Pulkkinen
Teuvo Teravainen
Ty Rattie

Confirmed Redemption
Adam Lowry
Alexander Wennberg
Andy Andreoff
Anthony Duclair
Chris Tierney
Curtis McKenzie
Johnny Gaudreau
Jori Lehtera
Kevin Hayes
Oscar Klefbom
Seth Griffith
Shayne Gostisbehere

Awaiting One To Be Pulled
Calle Jarnkrok
Christian Folin
Curtis Lazar
Damon Severson
Jake McCabe
Jiri Sekac
Leon Draisaitl
Markus Granlund
Mirco Mueller
Stuart Percy
Trevor van Riemsdyk
Victor Rask
Vincent Trocheck
William Karlsson
Click to expand...
Curtis Lazar pulled here: https://twitter.com/breakaway_sc/status/589854539391455232

Been in a few breaks trying to get that Rask. The preview pictures of the set had one which looked great. Insanely hard pull though.
 
Just really weird how UD picks rc's for products. The Lightning have a nice handful of rc's again this year yet only three in this product. They are 3 good picks but why leave out Paquette , Nesterov ???
 
fuel_77 said:
I'd appreciate someone double checking my math here.

I'm trying to work out the odds of pull a Tier 1 Rookie.

Tier 5 Rookies (30 Cards * 999) = 29970 Cards
Tier 4 Rookies (12 Cards * 799) = 9588 Cards
Tier 3 Rookies (20 Cards * 499) = 9980 Cards
Tier 2 Rookies (12 Cards * 249) = 2988 Cards
Tier 1 Rookies (10 Cards * 99) = 990 Cards

Total Number of Rookies = 53516 Cards

Per Cardboard Connection:

Number of Ice Premieres Per Box = 3

Ergo Number of Ice Premieres Per Case (8 Boxes) = 24

Rough Number of Cases = (53516 RCs/ 24RCs) = 2229, but assume 2220 (so that the stated odds are under expected value - i.e. some boxes will 'overperform' and have more than 3 RCs).

Approximate distribution of Rookies per case

Tier 5 Rookies (29970 Cards/2220 Cases) = 13.50 (13-14 per case)
Tier 4 Rookies (9588 Cards /2220 Cases) = 4.31 (4-5 per case)
Tier 3 Rookies (9980 Cards /2220 Cases) = 4.50 (4-5 per case)
Tier 2 Rookies (2988 Cards /2200 Cases) = 1.36 (1-2 per case)
Tier 1 Rookies (990 Cards/2220 Cases) = 0.45 (Almost 1 every 2 cases)
Click to expand...

I came to roughly the same conclusion stated slightly differently when I ran the numbers back in December (partial paste):

***
(edited out - does not apply)

Cross-checked against:

Ice Premieres - Three per box
999 24 23976
799 36 28764
499 24 11976
299 6 1794
99 15 1485
67995
22665 boxes and 181320 packs

So, using the smaller number, we have a little over 2800 8-box inner cases or 1400 16-box master cases.

With:

15.26 boxes per /99 RC
12.63 boxes per /299 RC

we get a yield of 1.16 RC /99 or /299 per inner case. Since we can't have partial cards, this breaks out to:

6 out of 7 inner cases will have either /99 or /299 RC (not quite evenly distributed, slightly more /299)
1 out of 7 inner cases will have both /99 and /299 RC

So, any one inner case will have slightly better than a 50% chance of hitting a /99 RC.
***

Now, I've personally seen two 8-box cases with more than one /99 and I must assume there are dozens more like that, so either they cut production and skewed the ratios or there are some cases with bubkis.

Edit: I see you are using different numbers of RC in each tier, so maybe they changed since December? I'll have to double-check. Same result on the /99 anyway LOL.
Edit part deux: Clearly something changed from the initial announcement in December, as there are no "World Juniors" to be seen in this product. I've scrapped that part of my calculations and the others can be re-done to correct for the changes in RC/Tier.
 
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Here's the full breakdown from a certain breaker so far:

With a bit of simple math against the Ice Premieres:

There's 10*99 + 12*249 + 20*499 + 12*799 + 30*999 = 53 516 of these all together. While getting 1/990 of those all (that is, a random /99 Ice Premiere), you'd also get: 30 /999, 10 /499, 10 /799 and 3 /249 Ice Premieres.

Pulling a /499 card is actually more likely than pulling a /799 card. That's because there are 20 /499 rookies and only 12 /799 rookies i.e. there's more /499 cards (9980 in total) than /799 cards (9588 in total).

As for the odds of getting these, you get four Ice Premieres per box (one per two packs, based on sample of 191 boxes) and that means for the 54 card lot of Ice Premieres (1+3+10+10+30) you need 108 packs or 13,5 boxes (remember that inner is eight boxes).
So roughly taken
/99 is 1:108 packs (one in 13,5 boxes)
/249 is 3:108 packs (two per nine boxes)
/499 is 10:108 packs (a bit less than one per box)
/799 is 10:108 packs (a bit less than one per box)
/999 is 30:108 packs (a bit more than two per box)

191 boxes yielded:
999 Premieres: 428 (Odds: 1:3,57 Per box/case: 2,24/35,85) (All different were pulled at least 11 times)
499 Premieres: 144 (Odds: 1:10,61 Per box/case: 0,75/12,06) (All different were pulled at least 4 times)
799 Premieres: 137 (Odds: 1:11,15 Per box/case: 0,72/11,48) (All different were pulled at least 10 times)
Autograph Premieres: 136 (Odds: 1:11,24 Per box/case: 0,71/11,39) (All different Group C cards were pulled)*
Frozen Fabrics: 84 (Odds: 1:18,19 Per box/case: 0,44/7,04) (All different Group A and Group C cards were pulled)*
Rookie Black: 83 (Odds: 1:18,41 Per box/case: 0,43/6,95)
Fresh Threads: 62 (Odds: 1:24,65 Per box/case: 0,32/5,19) (All different were pulled)
Glacial Graphs: 50 (Odds: 1:30,56 Per box/case: 0,26/4,19) (All different Group D cards were pulled)*
Foursome Frozen: 45 (Odds: 1:33,96 Per box/case: 0,24/3,77) (All different Group C cards were pulled)*
Auto Lustrous Rookies: 41 (Odds: 1:37,27 Per box/case: 0,21/3,43) (All different were pulled)
249 Premieres: 40 (Odds: 1:38,20 Per box/case: 0,21/3,35) (All different were pulled at least twice)
UD Black: 39 (Odds: 1:39,18 Per box/case: 0,20/3,27)
Lustrous Materials: 39 (Odds: 1:39,18 Per box/case: 0,20/3,27)
Rinkside Signings: 36 (Odds: 1:42,44 Per box/case: 0,19/3,02)
Lustrous Signatures: 16 (Odds: 1:95,50 Per box/case: 0,08/1,34)
99 Premieres: 15 (Odds: 1:101,87 Per box/case: 0,08/1,26)
Signature Swatches: 11 (Odds: 1:138,91 Per box/case: 0,06/0,92) (All different Group C cards were pulled)*
Gold Glacial Graphs: 11 (Odds: 1:138,91 Per box/case: 0,06/0,92)
Gold Frozen Fabrics: 9 (Odds: 1:169,78 Per box/case: 0,05/0,75)
Black Glacial Graphs: 7 (Odds: 1:218,29 Per box/case: 0,04/0,59)
Patch Auto Premieres: 5 (Odds: 1:305,60 Per box/case: 0,03/0,42)
Gold Foursome Frozen: 4 (Odds: 1:382,00 Per box/case: 0,02/0,34)
Black Fresh Threads: 3 (Odds: 1:509,33 Per box/case: 0,02/0,25)
Gold Fresh Threads: 2 (Odds: 1:764,00 Per box/case: 0,01/0,17)
Black Foursome Frozen: 1 (Odds: 1:1528,00 Per box/case: 0,01/0,08)
Black Signature Swatches: 1 (Odds: 1:1528,00 Per box/case: 0,01/0,08)
Black Frozen Fabrics: 1 (Odds: 1:1528,00 Per box/case: 0,01/0,08)


Compared to those odds of Ice Premieres I stated above:
15 cards of 99 Premieres has been pulled, while according to the odds I counted, 14 should have been pulled
40 cards of 249 Premieres has been pulled, while according to the odds I counted, 43 should have been pulled
137 cards of 799 Premieres has been pulled, while according to the odds I counted, 137 should have been pulled
144 cards of 499 Premieres has been pulled, while according to the odds I counted, 143 should have been pulled
428 cards of 999 Premieres has been pulled, while according to the odds I counted, 428 should have been pulled



Some quality issues of the product:
1) Marian Gaborik base cards are all (?) damaged
2) Some cards are melt together effectively destroying both of them. I've seen this issue once.
3) Some packs have only one card. I've seen this issue once.

Note that I use comma as decimal separator.

Oh and before you even think about asking: No, those are not my cards.
 
gallinator said:
I came to roughly the same conclusion stated slightly differently when I ran the numbers back in December (partial paste):

***
(edited out - does not apply)

Cross-checked against:

Ice Premieres - Three per box
999 24 23976
799 36 28764
499 24 11976
299 6 1794
99 15 1485
67995
22665 boxes and 181320 packs

So, using the smaller number, we have a little over 2800 8-box inner cases or 1400 16-box master cases.

With:

15.26 boxes per /99 RC
12.63 boxes per /299 RC

we get a yield of 1.16 RC /99 or /299 per inner case. Since we can't have partial cards, this breaks out to:

6 out of 7 inner cases will have either /99 or /299 RC (not quite evenly distributed, slightly more /299)
1 out of 7 inner cases will have both /99 and /299 RC

So, any one inner case will have slightly better than a 50% chance of hitting a /99 RC.
***

Now, I've personally seen two 8-box cases with more than one /99 and I must assume there are dozens more like that, so either they cut production and skewed the ratios or there are some cases with bubkis.

Edit: I see you are using different numbers of RC in each tier, so maybe they changed since December? I'll have to double-check. Same result on the /99 anyway LOL.
Edit part deux: Clearly something changed from the initial announcement in December, as there are no "World Juniors" to be seen in this product. I've scrapped that part of my calculations and the others can be re-done to correct for the changes in RC/Tier.
Click to expand...

The reason you have the math wrong is that you assume there is /299 RCs. Those doesn't exist.
 

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