Where to from here - adapting our collecting approach

[BrookIsland]

I, like I expect many of you, was deeply into breaking my own wax with a fair (sometimes a lot) of breaks in addition.

The pandemic completely changed that (at least for me) as wax prices exploded yet the underlying value per box remained, at least in my opinion, either flat year-on-year or worse.

Like perhaps many of you, I've never cracked wax for anything like "investment" purposes - it's always been to keep the stuff I like and sell the few things I didn't to buy more of the unopened wax or of the singles I needed to finish my sets.

As I write that, it may sound like "investment" but it's never felt like the way that I would approach buying assets in other markets where my interest has been for retirement or capital appreciation and I'm only buying things that I think will appreciate -- i.e., at least when I'm buying other assets for "investment", I'm not buying them with a view toward losing 50% of my principal off the bat! And with cards, it's never been about the returns (though it's still about ensuring that I'm not getting ripped off).

With wax, I had no issue stomaching taking a 40-50% haircut on "value". However, when that increased, as it did during the pandemic, to 80-90%, then the thrill of ripping wax just didn't, for me at least, make any economic sense any more and common sense seemed to dictate to be selectively just buying the singles. Opening wax is fun but not at any cost.

I wonder how many of you also completely changed your wax habits...

I won't go into debating the merits (or my view on the rationale) of why the prices changed and the value decreased; irrespective, at least IMO they did and from what it looks like to me, it seems like irreversible change for the more high end products.

* * *​

My focus product is, and always has been, SP Authentic; I love the designs, the hard signed cards, the iconic RCs, the sub-sets, just the whole package.

That said, I would generally always make Canvas and YG sets from S1 and S2 and would break at least a case or two of Cup every year.

Yet, as I mentioned above, I've been on the sidelines, solely chasing singles that are extensions of the sets that I started with 19-20 SPA, the last product I bought in size.

Taking the point I made above into a specific context: In the case of SPA, the move from pretty stable release prices of ~USD100 boxes in 15-16 really through 19-20 with a guaranteed FWA /999 per box (plus one-two additional autos) to ~USD250 boxes with not even a guaranteed /999 FWA per box (plus a random other auto) just doesn't feel like a great value proposition to me.

2.5x the cost with perhaps a fraction of the value. That doesn't make sense to me. And I could definitely be wrong, but I can't imagine there are lots of collectors buying sealed wax in size with the prices/value where they are.

As we've talked about in lots of other threads - it's the breakers and they are and I expect will remain the driving force.

So where does that leave those of us who like to break our own wax?

For me, I've gone from breaking many, many masters per SPA release to 0 masters/boxes/packs (and 0 breaks) of any sealed product since 2019-20 SPA (as that's when things seemed to go pretty haywire).

* * *​

So what is this even about?

Well, I really miss opening wax and I'm trying to find a good entry point in either hockey or baseball where the haircuts are reasonable and more like they used to be in SPA but the product features some of the same great key features: hard autos, marquee RCs, great sub-sets...there's gotta be another good product out there!

As prices have seemed to normalize (at least in part) for some releases, I'm trying to figure out what to do and whether it's possible to recapture something like the joy that SPA brought me.

Would be very interested to hear about how any of you have adapted to the updated paradigm of breaking your own wax as I know just about all of us love the thrill.

Thanks for any ideas for products to pursue and for sharing how you've approached this.

 

[Triple B]

I'm with you.

I used to buy multiple cases every year but not only has the cost increased, the formula has changed. Over in baseball, Topps Dynasty was recently released. In past years, it was $350-$400 a pack (with one sealed, autographed patch per pack). This year, the odds have doubled and the price has tripled. Watching breaks online, it's been a bloodbath (as expected).

I will break boxes here and there, but NOWHERE NEAR the level that I used to. I miss it as I miss the thrill but my bank account is so much happier that I don't. It's a breakers world now as that is who these boxes and cases are now geared towards. I'll spend my money chasing singles that I want for my PC.

 

[rvelligan]

I was the occasional box opener. Even before the pandemic, I was slowly walking away from it. The pandemic forced me to realize this was a great decision.
Being a player collector (Ryan O'Reilly), discovering player breakers makes buying into breaks easier to digest with the increased prices.
The only negative (if you call it that) is my focused shifted to Japanese wrestling cards and culminated with me writing a almanac about them during the pandemic.

Sincerely,
Die-hard Leafs fan since 2/17/23

 

[junyab]

I don't buy any physical boxes or cases now, and no breaks, just physical singles and boxes/cases on epack.

 

[quincy]

I don't buy any physical boxes or cases now, and no breaks, just physical singles(deletia).

I am drifting further and further in this direction. Even the products I *DO* want to open, I'm left feeling like I'm setting money on fire.

 

[TMCards]

It's eye opening after you start picking up singles instead of buying a box. You can do damage on the secondary market if you budget the price of a box.

 

[steveottfan]

This is what you get when you monopolize the industry. I don't expect it to get better until UD has some much needed competition.

 

[TanguayFan]

I stopped buying boxes somewhere around 08-09. I dabbled in breaks a little bit during the pandemic, but that was arguably worse than buying boxes, as many times you would get skunked.

The only packs I purchase now are Timmie's packs, I will grab a pack or two when I grab a coffee. I have no regrets over not touching wax.

 

[capsfan30]

I left breaking in ~2018 for personal reasons, and in hindsight, I'm glad I did. Wax prices have skyrocketted while value per box has gone downhill drastically. It was a crapshoot before but it seems even worse now.

Plus with the sudden explosion of all things Ovechkin thanks to his goal chase, I can't even buy into breaks for Capitals because they are scooped up seconds after going live.

 

[Luongo Collector]

I bought 2 boxes of opc over the past 3 years. That's it! One time I didn't mind wasitng my money if is was around $65 to $120 a box. But the prices now, with zero return???

All I think now is how better off everyone would be if you just bought the singles. You would literally pray that you got a card you could possibly sell to just make the cash back on the box.

Gone are the set builders, or people who enjoy trade. Now its investments, and trying to make that quick buck. I could care less for that. Even trying to buy any Luongo's I still need.... just too many people who think they have the world in their hands.

I'll never buy wax again. Even if the price point was where it used to be. Hopefully the market/hobby gets back to where it used to be. It's times like this that I'm so happy my guy retired before this stupid boom.

Now, I get that this may be an unpopular opinion, and yes, I'm a hypocrite for selling all my non Luongo's and making bank, but I for one absolutely hate this "Boom". I've stated before, I used to love the days of making trades here for like $10 cards. I loved people reaching out with new Luongo's I needed and them being happy to get it in my hands. Now it's quite the opposite. People reach out, see my collection, assume I have deep pockets, and try and price gouge.

My Luo collection grew because of this community, the decent prices, and finally selling everything I didn't want.


Chris

 

[dahabs26]

I had SOOOOO many discussions with different store owners at the Expo who are getting so shafted with having to fill pre-orders on garbage products just so they can keep their allocation for next year's wax orders (e.g., the "Bedard" frenzy). It's sad to hear these Diamond Dealers talk honestly...having to pay tens of thousands of dollars on product THEY CANNOT SELL UNLESS IT'S AT A LOSS!!!! And this is when they have the product arrive at their door....yes, selling a product at a loss the moment they receive it! So, it's not only us, the tertiary consumers who are having to pay for the "greed" (not sure what term is more appropriate??), but store owners across North America are closing their doors because of it.

Going back to an alternative to SPA boxes, there aren't any! Until Panini gets back in the game (used to love Panini Contenders and Anthology), we'll keep having to pay $250-$300 if we want to open this type of wax.

One positive note, this year's OPC hobby has been a blast...cheap and tons of hits! If you want to just have fun cracking a few boxes, can't go wrong with this product (although there aren't any autos, tons of rook parallels).

 

[FrozenInferno]

Man, I gave up wax like ten years ago. I missed it for a while at first but the older I get the less I miss it. And the way wax prices have trended up and the volume of content in the boxes has trended down it only pushes me further and further away.

I am not a gambler of any kind. I want to know my money is getting me the exact cards I want and the price of the average box nowadays can buy you some really nice singles. I know it means I will never pull that huge score that I would never buy otherwise but I can live with that.

 

[BrookIsland]

Thank you all for your replies - seems like a lot of commonality in observations and sentiment.

As I was thinking about what to do next today while reading your replies, it occurred to me that we're totally dependent on others taking the losses in box opening in order to support our ability to pursue singles.

I guess that's our dependent relationship with breakers/break participants: while they have pushed many out of opening their own wax and buying spots, this new(?) breed of break participant, by selling their hits, is what's fueling own ability to locate singles that would otherwise remain sealed in unopened wax (and in turn, taking the large losses on breaks and in sales revenue compared to the costs of break spots/the cost of unopened wax that they broke).

And perhaps as a follow-on, if the breakers/break participants stop buying because they no longer have the loss tolerance (or aren't getting enough on the secondary market to mitigate their losses from the hits they do get), then one would think that would (or could) likely reduce the cost of unopened wax by reducing demand for break spots...

And therein create a route to going back to reasonable wax prices? Maybe.

 

[katoy2j]

Prices don't go down on products after inflation. They either hold steady or you get shrinkflation.

Boxes of SPA will never go back to 100 a box. They will just shrink the print run down and boost the price up even further so they make more selling less.

This is the way brands work. The price of Cheese never goes backwards. They may have sales from time to time which is usually at the store level as a loss leader to get people in the doors. The prices go up or they shrink the amount in the package and keep the prices the same.

You may complain that their isn't value any more and that is fair but the costs for autographs are now astronomical and most players can't be bothered. Players are making 750K at the minimum now. The extra couple of thousand they make signing thousands of cards across all the releases simply isn't worth the hassle.

 

[odjickfan]

Personnally, I'm downsizing my wax habit. I felt in love with OPC last year, I'm doing one hobby box of OPC per year. I'm breaking a bit of UD1-2-3 retail if the price is right. The random oldtimers product here and there, a bit of Tim hortons, and that's mostly it. I have so many traders, I have a lot of fun trading small cards for my Habs binder, and I developped an interest into vintage. Crazy that a decent Roy rookie is not much more expensive than a hobby box of UD1-2.

 

[Chinner]

I was never a big into opening boxes and could not fathom breaking a case of any product. I was always a singles collector even before the boom. After the boom, I think I may have opened just a few hobby boxes.

With the most regularity it is Tim Horton's, 1 sealed box and then loose packs and then singles from ebay/shows/private deals. 20-21 SP Legends was a product that I was looking forward to ever since I first heard about it and "splurged" with 2 hobby boxes. I rarely take part in breaks because usually the good or my favourite teams are the first ones to go.

 

[Hama]

I had SOOOOO many discussions with different store owners at the Expo who are getting so shafted with having to fill pre-orders on garbage products just so they can keep their allocation for next year's wax orders (e.g., the "Bedard" frenzy). It's sad to hear these Diamond Dealers talk honestly...having to pay tens of thousands of dollars on product THEY CANNOT SELL UNLESS IT'S AT A LOSS!!!! And this is when they have the product arrive at their door....yes, selling a product at a loss the moment they receive it! So, it's not only us, the tertiary consumers who are having to pay for the "greed" (not sure what term is more appropriate??), but store owners across North America are closing their doors because of it.

Going back to an alternative to SPA boxes, there aren't any! Until Panini gets back in the game (used to love Panini Contenders and Anthology), we'll keep having to pay $250-$300 if we want to open this type of wax.

One positive note, this year's OPC hobby has been a blast...cheap and tons of hits! If you want to just have fun cracking a few boxes, can't go wrong with this product (although there aren't any autos, tons of rook parallels).

If you believe Panini or Topps will come to the rescue by opening it up to competition, I think you are sadly mistaken... Through the pandemic, Panini has pretty much jacked up prices on hobby product by much larger multiples than UD has on hockey products, and Topps/Fanatics hasn't been much better. Stuff that used to be products I wouldn't hesitate to buy at all now just go by and I'll hit singles that I want. Because for most products that aren't flagship items now have gotten to the point that you have a hit a low print run parallel of the big card to just break even, and even then that's not a given.

I've been spending more time getting back the sets that I wanted as a kid - back when it was just a base set with maybe a couple of inserts. I've bought into a couple of breaks recently, buying a team I loathe, but because the son of someone who I deal with is in it. For what I've spent on breaks on SPA to date is less than half of what a hobby box is going for these days.

We are hitting a breaking point again, and the manufacturers are going to have to readjust their expectations at some point, because if the LCS keeps having to buy product that there is little chance of actually selling through because of the price hikes - a lot of those stores aren't going to be around much longer. Wax is the gateway to getting people into the store, and if product prices are the gatekeepers, the current trend is keeping those gates from opening less and less these days.

I haven't been cracking nearly as much as I had been even with more disposable income than I ever have. The manufacturers aren't being shy about taking whatever they charge for their products - I'm a lot less shy about taking my money out for it in turn. I may dabble from time to time, but you're losing me as a steady consumer. The regular ROI for the manufacturers didn't seemed to be enough - and this was across the board - now they're determined to go overboard with it, which is what drew Fanatics in to be the 10,000 lb gorilla by taking over MLB, NFL and the NBA. UD just followed suit with the NHL.

 

[dahabs26]

If you believe Panini or Topps will come to the rescue by opening it up to competition, I think you are sadly mistaken... Through the pandemic, Panini has pretty much jacked up prices on hobby product by much larger multiples than UD has on hockey products, and Topps/Fanatics hasn't been much better. Stuff that used to be products I wouldn't hesitate to buy at all now just go by and I'll hit singles that I want. Because for most products that aren't flagship items now have gotten to the point that you have a hit a low print run parallel of the big card to just break even, and even then that's not a given.

I've been spending more time getting back the sets that I wanted as a kid - back when it was just a base set with maybe a couple of inserts. I've bought into a couple of breaks recently, buying a team I loathe, but because the son of someone who I deal with is in it. For what I've spent on breaks on SPA to date is less than half of what a hobby box is going for these days.

We are hitting a breaking point again, and the manufacturers are going to have to readjust their expectations at some point, because if the LCS keeps having to buy product that there is little chance of actually selling through because of the price hikes - a lot of those stores aren't going to be around much longer. Wax is the gateway to getting people into the store, and if product prices are the gatekeepers, the current trend is keeping those gates from opening less and less these days.

I haven't been cracking nearly as much as I had been even with more disposable income than I ever have. The manufacturers aren't being shy about taking whatever they charge for their products - I'm a lot less shy about taking my money out for it in turn. I may dabble from time to time, but you're losing me as a steady consumer. The regular ROI for the manufacturers didn't seemed to be enough - and this was across the board - now they're determined to go overboard with it, which is what drew Fanatics in to be the 10,000 lb gorilla by taking over MLB, NFL and the NBA. UD just followed suit with the NHL.

Regardless of Panini's box prices at the moment, having at least one other "shark" in the mix would keep Upper Deck/wholesalers at least a bit more honest. Having at least a bit of competition would force them to look out their rear view mirror from time to time to see if they are journeying on their own. Right now, with their monopoly in the hockey card market, they could absolutely care less, kind of a "full steam ahead, keep up if you can" mentality. Unfortunately, many CANNOT keep up! Only the strong will survive?? I think even for the strongest it's getting pretty dire....in my honest and humble opinion of course. Not a store owner but I have a lot of friends who are and this is the impression I"m getting.

 

[will-411]

There is absolutely no interest by the major sport leagues to have multiple license holders in any space. The idea of direct equal competition is never coming back to sports cards within a sport. I don't think any of the license holders could actually survive the transition to cover multiple sports while competing within each space. Fanatics might be able to, but no one else is.

Cory

 

[Fred Bear]

Regardless of Panini's box prices at the moment, having at least one other "shark" in the mix would keep Upper Deck/wholesalers at least a bit more honest. Having at least a bit of competition would force them to look out their rear view mirror from time to time to see if they are journeying on their own. Right now, with their monopoly in the hockey card market, they could absolutely care less, kind of a "full steam ahead, keep up if you can" mentality. Unfortunately, many CANNOT keep up! Only the strong will survive?? I think even for the strongest it's getting pretty dire....in my honest and humble opinion of course. Not a store owner but I have a lot of friends who are and this is the impression I"m getting.

I feel like this was debunked in the early 2010s when both UD and Panini had NHL licenses. I remember zero price competition. Each company ran completely parallel to the other. There were some interesting innovations/ideas that one had over the other, but, in terms of execution, I don't think either 'cared' about the collector/consumer in the 'capitalist' sense. Both companies produced products which would address the market in the way they wanted to at the price points they wanted to target.

I agree that the supply chain here is antiquated, but it's going to take more than complaints to fix it... Everybody with the ability to change it is making money and that won't generate change...

There is absolutely no interest by the major sport leagues to have multiple license holders in any space. The idea of direct equal competition is never coming back to sports cards within a sport. I don't think any of the license holders could actually survive the transition to cover multiple sports while competing within each space. Fanatics might be able to, but no one else is.

Cory

This, too. The Leagues want to make it simple and keep their brands clean... you want baseball, buy Topps. you want hockey, buy Upper Deck. etc.