Young Guns Analysis - Goalies

deepbluejacket

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With the Caps-Flyers playing in the background, I decided to look at completed eBay sales for active goaltenders and get a range of both price and activity for them. eBay's completed sales go back 3 months. <50 transactions was rated as Low activity, 50-100 Moderate, and anything over 100 as Heavy. All prices are in USD, with ranges based off of most recent sales (usually 20-30, when available). I won't comment on every card, but I do have thoughts. Columns are as follows:

Player Lo Hi Activity Year

Keep in mind that some Young Guns are part of the updates (like Shesterkin, Georgiev, Murray, DeSmith and Korpisalo), and that some sets have greater and lesser print runs. Outliers exist for these ranges, but I tended to drop extreme highs and lows.

Marc-Andre Fleury 250 500 Low 2003

Fleury is one of the few goaltenders that has significant grading done, so the remaining ungraded cards out there are of varying quality, thus the potential range. Fleury's prices were highest when he was on that streak earlier this year.

Carey Price 240 325 Moderate 2007

Andrey Vasilevskiy 125 150 Low 2014

Not a lot of activity on Vasilevskiy, as he's part of that harder to find 2014-15 second series. Those who do have him are holding on to him. Pretty wise, as he could be the dominant goaltender of the decade.

Jack Campbell 60 100 Heavy 2013

Here's the hot goalie theory in action. Compound that with him playing in Toronto, and we have a crazy irrational spike. He jumped from the $8-$20 range at the start of this period to a peak of $130. He could rapidly return to reality.

Igor Shesterkin 50 90 Heavy 2019
Jordan Binnington 60 85 Low 2014
Henrik Lundqvist 55 80 Moderate 2005

Carter Hart 55 75 Heavy 2018

Despite a brutal season, collectors are standing by Carter. So far.

Tuukka Rask 50 70 Moderate 2007

David Ayres 30 50 Heavy 2019

Though not an active goaltender, Ayres' novelty card remains in high demand. Value is up from 90 days ago, when he could be had for $20 to $30. Supply is rather limited at the moment.

Fredrik Andersen 25 45 Low 2013
Thatcher Demko 30 40 Heavy 2016

Cayden Primeau 25 40 Heavy 2019

Paying for potential in Montreal.

Matt Murray 20 40 Low 2015
Philip Grubauer 20 40 Moderate 2013
Ilya Sorokin 25 30 Heavy 2020

Ryan Miller 20 30 Low 2002

Ryan Miller is 14th all time in wins and top 20 in games played. Success is no guarantee of value, but it should make anyone think twice about spending $30 on a rookie. Very few will have careers matching Miller's.

John Gibson 15 30 Low 2013

Alex Nedeljkovic 15 30 Moderate 2017

Despite a spectacular season, few believers. Still, worth more than many established keepers at the moment.

Kevin Lankinen 15 30 Heavy 2020
Braden Holtby 15 30 Low 2009

Mackenzie Blackwood 15 25 Heavy 2018

My 2 cents? I'd rather buy Blackwood than Lankinen, Sorokin, or Demko.

Alex Georgiev 15 25 Moderate 2017
Casey DeSmith 15 25 Moderate 2017
Robin Lehner 15 25 Low 2010
Kaapo Kahkonen 12 25 Heavy 2019
Semyon Varlamov 12 25 Moderate 2008
Ilya Samsonov 12 25 Heavy 2018

Connor Hellebuyck 12 25 Heavy 2015

The defending Vezina winner is handicapped by being part of the 2015-16 Series 1 set, which was heavily produced. But it hasn't hurt McDavid, and more and more, Panarin and Rantanen are pulling away.

Dan Vladar 12 20 Heavy 2018

Rask won't play forever, but if you're looking for the heir apparent, Jeremy Swayman has the inside track.

Joonas Korpisalo 12 20 Low 2015
Elvis Merzlikins 12 20 Heavy 2019
Ben Bishop 12 20 Low 2008
Tristan Jarry 12 20 Heavy 2016
Jaroslav Halak 10 20 Moderate 2007
Jake Allen 10 20 Moderate 2012

Sergei Bobrovsky 10 20 Moderate 2010

Two time Vezina winner here available for peanuts.

Petr Mrazek 10 20 Moderate 2013
Jake Oettinger 10 20 Heavy 2020
James Reimer 8 15 Low 2009
Cal Petersen 8 15 Heavy 2018
Devan Dubnyk 8 15 Low 2009
Vitek Vanecek 8 15 Heavy 2020
Juuse Saros 5 12 Heavy 2015
Martin Jones 5 12 Low 2013
Chris Driedger 5 10 Heavy 2015
Jonathan Bernier 5 10 Low 2007
Linus Ullmark 3 8 Heavy 2015
Adin Hill 3 8 Moderate 2017
Antti Raanta 3 8 Low 2013
Anton Khudobin 3 8 Low 2009
Brian Elliott 3 8 Low 2007
Ville Husso 3 8 Moderate 2017
Laurent Broissot 3 8 Low 2014
Thomas Greiss 2 5 Low 2007
Malcolm Subban 2 5 Heavy 2015

Mike
 
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Whoa - Jack Campbell prices are insane! Matt Murray has surprising value. I know you had to pull his YG from SPA so it's tougher to get, but he looks like he's going to out of the NHL before his contract is up.

Interesting post - thanks!
 
Whoa - Jack Campbell prices are insane! Matt Murray has surprising value. I know you had to pull his YG from SPA so it's tougher to get, but he looks like he's going to out of the NHL before his contract is up.

Interesting post - thanks!

Found a Jack Campbell Canvas YG I had graded in his rookie year and sold that thing as fast as I could a couple of weeks back lol...

Goalies are so mercurial...and also benefit from playing behind good defensive systems. Bob has all world skill, but his best years were in Columbus playing behind a team that was defense first. Then he went to the run and gun Panthers where defense was a little more optional. IMO Vassy and Gibson have been the most consistent goaltenders over the past years but Gibson's value is hurt by playing in Anaheim and Vassy for another sunbelt team albiet a Stanley Cup winning one. Guys like Carey Price are just getting old and as a Flyers fan, I guess you still need to believe in something..AKA Carter Hart.

This was a great post by the OP. Fun to look at some of the ups and downs in value.
 
Great work, thanks for sharing! As always, if you can exercise patience then do so because how many of these young guys are going to have a career like Ryan Miller or Sergei Bobrovsky? Market matters of course but smart money is patient money.

I'm thrilled for Jack Campbell as he's such a good dude but his prices are just too funny. Goes to show just how important market and situation matters to card value.
 
And then you have the one-game wonder, David Ayres, who--while he cooled off a LOT--is still selling as high as some of the established guys above.
 
And then you have the one-game wonder, David Ayres, who--while he cooled off a LOT--is still selling as high as some of the established guys above.

I think the Ayres cooled off a ton as you said, but there has been an announcement of an upcoming Disney movie....i suspect people have been buying these up a bit (quietly)

Pacman
 

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