The Dreaded “Buyer’s Group” exposed...

[Triple B]

So I’ve mentioned the legendary “Buyer’s Group” before and I believe they have been responsible for a lot of the price hikes over the last few years. Mainly, the Sidney Crosby Young Guns RC.

This just happened over on Blowout...

It occured to me that in my discussion on Project 2020, that a lot of people inside the hobby are unaware of "Cook Groups" and Discord Chats.

Cook Groups are actual buyers clubs. Yes, , :doh:, *sarcastic remark about no such thing existing* ok, got that out of the way.

They have recently been popping up all over Twitter and IG, usually with one "tout" who gives out "investment advice". They create a private Discord group (Discord is basically a group chat with sub-forums/discussions) and charge members $30-$100/month to join the group.

Generally speaking, MOST of the people in these groups have no background in sportscards, and couldnt tell you the difference between a PSA/BGS case. The crowd is younger (11-20 years old) and lots of them do not have actual disposable income. They often are very leveraged in debt, or rely on their self-made pyramid scheme to make money by flipping enough items.

The tout will put up an "invesment of the day", "Top Pick", "Ace Pick", something along those lines, and everyone sees that card, and buys with reckless abandon.

This is sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy, as the tout will post a card, the "Target Price", and a link to ebay for everyone to buy. Everyone buys up the supply on eBay at that point, and they all cheer that the cards "increased" in value.

A week later when everyone gets their cards in hand, a few things can happen:

1) The cards have all been bought up on eBay and they re-list them at higher prices and hope that someone sees the run-up and purchases the same card at a higher price
2) They try to re-sell them back into the group, since everyone is now "investing" in that card
3) There is enough supply on eBay that they cant keep buying every copy of a specific card (remember, a lot of these are kids and credit card warriors) and they begin to come back down to pre-hype levels
4) The cards stop appreciating, they cant sell them in the groups to their peers, so they file chargebacks about false damage, cards getting "lost" in the mail, etc.
5) They dump the cards for a loss if they cant quick-flip the card (generally about 2-3 weeks)

For those who aren't familiar, this is how a bubble forms, and eventually pops.

Below is "proof" that the doubters will inevitably ask for. These are all screenshots from one of the biggest and most popular Discord Groups that my friend is in. He had to wait on Twitter for a spot to open up and pays $70/month to be in the group.

If you'll notice, there was a recent run up on the Josh Vides Mariano Rivera Project 2020 card last night. That was no coincidence - the card was touted in at least 3 groups, and here is a screenshot from one of them:

There has been a recent run-up on Ozzie Albies that even active posters in the Albies thread couldnt explain and were confused why his stuff was suddenly on fire. Take a wild guess:

Wondering about the recent explosion on the base rookies of the Project 2020 rookies that have been basically stagnant up until recently? Get you an OG Print! Big profits to be found! Stay hungry family!

The last few were sent to me to show the lack of understanding of cards in the group. This gives you an idea of what you are dealing with.

The majority of these people are re-selling shoes, hypebeast clothing (Supreme, Bape, etc.), or botted cards (FOTL, Bowman 1st Edition, Project 2020 Artist Proofs, etc). They are pretty easy to identify based on their ebay items, and should be avoided, if possible, when purchasing items. Any money that the people "inside the hobby" (and if you are here, most likely you are part of that group) give to these people is being immediately siphoned away and not re-invested into the hobby.

I am fortunate that I am given this information so I know which cards to avoid, and what "pumps" 100% fake and driven by these groups and wanted to share. Obviously there will be detractors, defenders, and flat out deniers, but for those who aren't in the loop on some of this stuff, and who want to make the sleazier-by-the-day-industry a little better, here you go.

 

[hockeyguy2006]

One of many most likely.

 

[Burner]

Wasn't there a group doing something similar with Leafs prospects about 5 years agO?

 

[WatchMyBreaks]

Clearly the market for Mike Trout is totally organic even though one guy has admitted publicly to purposely pumping sales of his limited Bowman Chrome rookies.

 

[TheGriceBoys]

Clearly the market for Mike Trout is totally organic even though one guy has admitted publicly to purposely pumping sales of his limited Bowman Chrome rookies.

There's a guy in Ohio buying every single 2011 Topps Update Trout BGS 10 Pristine he can afford. He was paying $4K no questions asked in September, $5K in November, and it looks like it's clearing $7K as of now, not sure if he is still as rabid. Even the PSA 10 is pulling $2800-3500 right now. Bonkers.

 

[WatchMyBreaks]

There's a guy in Ohio buying every single 2011 Topps Update Trout BGS 10 Pristine he can afford. He was paying $4K no questions asked in September, $5K in November, and it looks like it's clearing $7K as of now, not sure if he is still as rabid. Even the PSA 10 is pulling $2800-3500 right now. Bonkers.

Yeah I think people underestimate how little sales it takes to move the market. It doesn’t help that everyone benefits from higher card sales, PSA/BGS, auction houses (PWCC/Probstein), eBay, breakers, flippers. Really the only person not benefiting would be player collectors.

 

[dismonkey1]

Not sure what is going on in the basketball and baseball market right now. Everything seems to be going up fast. The Luka Doncic base Prizm #280 RC was selling for $200 PSA 10 back in January. Even at that point, a lot of "experts" were saying it was too high because the supply of PSA 10s was crazy high. As of today, there are over 10,000 graded PSA 10s of that card. What has happened since January? The price has gone up to over $500 for the same card. What is driving this and is it sustainable? This seems to be happening for a lot of cards in both those sports.

 

[paulxing]

Some of it is due to the $1200 stimulus though. The Griffey rookie which has an insane supply doubled. Was a buying group involved? Maybe. But to move that kind of supply there has to be organic demand too. People who were getting FOMO, saw the spike and bought in as well. I don't think that would have been possible without people getting $1200 for free. Or maybe the buyer's group is all kids who live with their parents who got $1200 who knows.

 

[TheGriceBoys]

Yeah I think people underestimate how little sales it takes to move the market. It doesn’t help that everyone benefits from higher card sales, PSA/BGS, auction houses (PWCC/Probstein), eBay, breakers, flippers. Really the only person not benefiting would be player collectors.

For sure, especially when it is high end cards with relatively limited supply. I looked it up because we LOVE numbers as hobbyists.

For the 2011 Topps Update Mike Trout there are 222 BGS 10 Pristine cards and 4761 PSA 10s. That is crushingly disproportionate, and shows why many say the BGS 9.5 is a "crossover" PSA 10 and vice versa.

For the hockey buffs, Sidney Crosby has 137 BGS 10 cards versus 3132 PSA 10 cards. That's quantifiable data ladies and gents.

This is a tremendous example of the power of the BGS subgrades and scrutiny for modern cards, and why you likely want to use BGS to purchase anything in the last 15-20 years for investment purposes.

 

[Triple B]

For sure, especially when it is high end cards with relatively limited supply. I looked it up because we LOVE numbers as hobbyists.

For the 2011 Topps Update Mike Trout there are 222 BGS 10 Pristine cards and 4761 PSA 10s. That is crushingly disproportionate, and shows why many say the BGS 9.5 is a "crossover" PSA 10 and vice versa.

For the hockey buffs, Sidney Crosby has 137 BGS 10 cards versus 3132 PSA 10 cards. That's quantifiable data ladies and gents.

This is a tremendous example of the power of the BGS subgrades and scrutiny for modern cards, and why you likely want to use BGS to purchase anything in the last 15-20 years for investment purposes.

That's a great take, but unfortunately with the way these groups are manipulating the market, NOTHING is a good buy no matter who it's graded by.

If you're someone that has loaded up and bought before this mini-boom, now is the time you cash in. Now IS NOT the time to be buying and offering someone that advice is setting that person up for a loss.

I advised a few people here to buy PSA 10 Griffey UD RCs back in December at $300. They're selling for $1,500 and climbing. 5x increase in 5 months? If you missed buying that card, you missed it. If $1,500 is nothing to you, then yeah, buy it now.

I thought you quit collecting?

 

[deepbluejacket]

I have to keep telling myself that I basically exist in a separate hobby from these people and that our paths typically never cross. Otherwise, I'd get too irritated.

 

[creasecollector]

I have to keep telling myself that I basically exist in a separate hobby from these people and that our paths typically never cross. Otherwise, I'd get too irritated.

Haha, same. There are many wavelengths in this hobby for sure.

I'm just over here totally okay in my little space within this hobby.

 

[TheGriceBoys]

That's a great take, but unfortunately with the way these groups are manipulating the market, NOTHING is a good buy no matter who it's graded by.

If you're someone that has loaded up and bought before this mini-boom, now is the time you cash in. Now IS NOT the time to be buying and offering someone that advice is setting that person up for a loss.

I advised a few people here to buy PSA 10 Griffey UD RCs back in December at $300. They're selling for $1,500 and climbing. 5x increase in 5 months? If you missed buying that card, you missed it. If $1,500 is nothing to you, then yeah, buy it now.

I thought you quit collecting hockey for yourself?

Fixed the end of that for you. I did quit hockey, but in the last few months have actually been filling out my Gretzky Kings PC, that's all I am doing hockey-wise for myself.

As I told someone else, I don't do show and tells anymore so no one knows whom or what I'm collecting. Which is great because I collect for me and keeps people guessing what I am or am not chasing.

That said, I made it very well known countless times I was still collecting baseball and non-sports, and my sons were doing their thing. Hockey cards don't make the hobby go that much outside of the top 5% of cards. So if quitting hockey card collecting is quitting collecting................?

As for this topic, I can lay out all my "suggestions", notably Trout. I told you, everyone under the sun the ceiling is endless on him, and it is. So why isn't everyone buying him even at the high prices? You KNOW it's going up and never stopping, so why not spend big, win big instead of messing around with Griffey rookies? No idea? Again, we all have ideas and hot takes.

There's countless ways to look at things, and countless people who have their spins. We can point/counterpoint things all day long, so many examples and things to discuss, but in the end, numbers do help guide things, whether they are a perfect reference/science or not. If we all had a crystal ball, we'd all crush it, and that's what makes it kind of fun sometimes.

On a serious note, Trout, LeBron, Crosby, those are gonna be hard to lose on for current players.

This is a fun topic, love all the underbelly BS. Thanks for posting Ryan!

 

[gomaz]

I thought you quit collecting?

We talked about that on Sports Cards Live last week. Like many hobbyists, he's back from a break. We see it all the time. You just can't take the collector out of a true hobby lifer!

 

[Triple B]

Fixed the end of that for you. I did quit hockey, but in the last few months have actually been filling out my Gretzky Kings PC, that's all I am doing hockey-wise for myself.

As I told someone else, I don't do show and tells anymore so no one knows whom or what I'm collecting. Which is great because I collect for me and keeps people guessing what I am or am not chasing.

That said, I made it very well known countless times I was still collecting baseball and non-sports, and my sons were doing their thing. Hockey cards don't make the hobby go that much outside of the top 5% of cards. So if quitting hockey card collecting is quitting collecting................?

As for this topic, I can lay out all my "suggestions", notably Trout. I told you, everyone under the sun the ceiling is endless on him, and it is. So why isn't everyone buying him even at the high prices? You KNOW it's going up and never stopping, so why not spend big, win big instead of messing around with Griffey rookies? No idea? Again, we all have ideas and hot takes.

There's countless ways to look at things, and countless people who have their spins. We can point/counterpoint things all day long, so many examples and things to discuss, but in the end, numbers do help guide things, whether they are a perfect reference/science or not. If we all had a crystal ball, we'd all crush it, and that's what makes it kind of fun sometimes.

On a serious note, Trout, LeBron, Crosby, those are gonna be hard to lose on for current players.

This is a fun topic, love all the underbelly BS. Thanks for posting Ryan!

$3,000 for a PSA 10 base card. Like I said, if you’ve stockpiled, now’s the time to sell. Advising anyone to buy in at $3k is setting those listening to you to be on the wrong end of that bubble going *pop*.

But yah, lots of hot takes on this topic and you’re most welcome for the fun topic.

We talked about that on Sports Cards Live last week. Like many hobbyists, he's back from a break. We see it all the time. You just can't take the collector out of a true hobby lifer!

Darn, that’s the only interview I’ve missed

 

[TanguayFan]

Explains why McDavid RC's and Ovy RC's have spiked to levels nobody could have predicted.

Hockey collectors have always been "purists" when it comes to their RC's, but now even rookie year inserts and parallels are seeing massive spikes from those two players. It must be an influx of buyers from other sports where parallels are king.

 

[TheGriceBoys]

$3,000 for a PSA 10 base card. Like I said, if you’ve stockpiled, now’s the time to sell. Advising anyone to buy in at $3k is setting those listening to you to be on the wrong end of that bubble going *pop*.

But yah, lots of hot takes on this topic and you’re most welcome for the fun topic.



Darn, that’s the only interview I’ve missed

Darn dude, you could have maybe got some free product from Topps they sent along! I bet you would have known one of the tough, oddball questions, you're pretty decent with hobby history and facts. Either way, it's on YouTube if you ever want some cool insight or fun hobby banter from a couple old hobby stalwarts.

Look forward to more chit chat!

 

[gomaz]

Explains why McDavid RC's and Ovy RC's have spiked to levels nobody could have predicted.

Hockey collectors have always been "purists" when it comes to their RC's, but now even rookie year inserts and parallels are seeing massive spikes from those two players. It must be an influx of buyers from other sports where parallels are king.

Or hockey collectors are expanding out which I know to be fact if you look in the right places you see that is happening quite a bit lately. Probably a combination of a few things though.

 

[TheGriceBoys]

Or hockey collectors are expanding out which I know to be fact if you look in the right places you see that is happening quite a bit lately. Probably a combination of a few things though.

For sure, all of it. As I said "level playing field" right now, no sports going so everyone is getting love, and not all traditional sources.

It's actually probably more of the reason for card increases across the board then any buyers groups, collectors and the hobby as a whole are thriving and it's awesome!:beer:

 

[WatchMyBreaks]

At least with Ovechkin and Crosby Young Guns they were created before e-pack and Upper Deck really turning on the YG printing press. Here is a breakdown of all of the Young Guns submitted to BGS/PSA from 1999-2020 using data pulled from today:

Obviously there are some considerations when looking at this data.

- Some years have less top end talent than others and submissions reflect that.
- Recent players will naturally have less submissions.
- Submissions seem to be relatively level on normal seasons that do not feature "generational" players.
- Upper Deck clearly printed extreme amounts of McDavid Young Guns.

I created this chart to illustrate just how much Upper Deck overprinted Connor McDavid Young Guns rookies. This chart does not point out which player was the best or most valuable player during that given season, just which player was submitted for grading the most in that given season.

Some seasons that had several mid level players or a complete bust driving the Young Guns crop resulted in a "split field" which accounts for the lower numbers for some seasons. 2012-13 being a great example of a bust season and a split field. 1999-00 was the first season that Upper Deck brought Young Guns back from the early 90s and the true rookies of that season were Pavel Brendl, Patrik Stefan, Milan Kraft and several other bigger busts. The Sedin's were featured in the set but this was not their rookie cards but still technically a Young Guns.

Ovechkin and Crosby were both included since the numbers were close and they're the two most valuable Young Guns to date. It is reasonable to assume with copies of Ovechkin and Crosby that the vast majority of cards that have seen the light of day have also been graded.

Given these numbers, can McDavid's Young Guns someday approach the prices of Ovechkin and Crosby?