Any guesses on a sealed tin of 2005-06 The Cup?

what a waste of money by now... fun to pull expired redemption. or is there really a market for these still ? i mean all good cards are found long ago...
 
mortuus said:
what a waste of money by now... fun to pull expired redemption. or is there really a market for these still ? i mean all good cards are found long ago...
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I wouldn't say ALL. There has to be Crosby and Ovechkin RPAs still out there in tins. And even their auto patch subsets like Limited Logos, Signature Patches, Honorable Numbers, etc sell for very good money today. Pack fresh with clean autos could go for even more. And you still have guys like Gretzky in there too.

And besides, chances are nobody is buying these to actually open. They'll sit on them for a few years and flip, then the next owner will eventually flip, and so on. You'll probably see these tins go up for sale every few years.
 
Sealed case or bust. I won't say any more except that the chances of those packs holding a Crosby or Ovechkin or anything of significant value is EXTREMELY low.

Shout out to anyone bidding with the intention of winning.
 
FrozenInferno said:
I wouldn't say ALL. There has to be Crosby and Ovechkin RPAs still out there in tins. And even their auto patch subsets like Limited Logos, Signature Patches, Honorable Numbers, etc sell for very good money today. Pack fresh with clean autos could go for even more. And you still have guys like Gretzky in there too.

And besides, chances are nobody is buying these to actually open. They'll sit on them for a few years and flip, then the next owner will eventually flip, and so on. You'll probably see these tins go up for sale every few years.
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Depending on price it may get busted. Same with the 15-16 Cup Case they have for sale.
 
paulxing said:
Depending on price it may get busted. Same with the 15-16 Cup Case they have for sale.
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Yeah I could maybe see the 2015-16 case getting busted. The loose 2005-06 tins though I wouldn't be busting. I'd be flipping in the future when Ovie passes a few more guys on the goals list.

People pay stupid money for loose boxes of 2003-04 Exquisite NBA but I doubt any of that gets opened either. The ''what if'' factor keeps boxes like that more valuable than what is realistically in them.
 
I think we need some hardcore analytics people to predict expected value/return on older product. :)

For example, I don't know what the odds are of pulling a Crosby RC out of the Cup, but we do know what the odds are on UD Series 1. 1 in 168 (Young Guns fall 1:4, and Crosby is 1:42.) That seems pretty good until it's converted to a decimal: 0.006%.

So let's say a Crosby is worth $1000 (to keep the math easy.) You have a 0.006% chance of pulling it. Presuming all other cards are basically worthless (again, for easy math), does that mean the correct price for a single pack is $6? ($1000 * 0.006%)?
 
I foresee many with the money to burn on something like this, less concerned with the overall return value they may receive and more connected to the emotional aspect. The thrill of having even the slightest possibility of pulling one of the two best hockey cards ever will draw bidders.
 
isn't there a webpage with a photo of every Crosby RPA that has been pulled? Wonder if Ovechkin has a page like that? I wouldn't waste my $ on those because 5 out of 6 are listed so the missing box was probably the case hit
 
deepbluejacket said:
The odds of a Crosby or Ovechkin being in those tins are quite poor. Spending 2K and pulling Danny Richmond would be devastating.
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Can chime in with experience here from 30+ cases ripped of 2005-06 Cup. Opened a few cases more recently over the past few years too.

- case hit had a grey piece of foam on the top

- case hits ranged from a Joe Thornton Emblems of Endorsement sticker auto patch #/15 ($50-$100 card depending on patch)...

- there were 6 tin cases (always bought those since they were "guaranteed" case hits; there were times with foam at top and NO case hit too... ) and 3 tin cases (which I didn't buy, but have heard many Dual Shield #1/1's out there and not sure about #/99 ARP - don't know if those had foam too layer for case hit as well)

- obviously with 5 tins up on PWCC, someone has most likely weighed each box to find the lightest box containing the case hit (i.e. pack/tin search; lightest tin will have least cards because foam is lighter than card). This pack searching became common place a few years after 05-06 Cup release. If you buy these tins live on eBay now (there's magically 5 tins so high chance the 6th was kept and opened for case hit), KNOW they will 99.9% NOT contain a Crosby/Ovy Maybe worth buying to keep away or grade (can you even grade a tin?!),... but to open for a lottery ticket is a sadly foolish endeavor in a rigged game. Buyer beware.
- check for RE-SEALED case of loose tins and also check the shrink wrap on the tins. There were many tins seen where the shrink wrap was not completely stretched out and never hit anything from those tins.
- between some other friends and I, we have broken over 100 cases of 05-06 Cup. We did document this at one point on everything to look out for, but that's in some past archive of posts now. some things are unforgettable.
 
nikemikey222005 said:
isn't there a webpage with a photo of every Crosby RPA that has been pulled? Wonder if Ovechkin has a page like that? I wouldn't waste my $ on those because 5 out of 6 are listed so the missing box was probably the case hit
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Jeremy and Matt had a page for this. IMHO, though I agree with the lion's share of their work, I feel a few were questionable. Problem is that the archive was not started at launch with video evidence (just wasn't a thing back in 05-06). I have also bought some fake 05-06 Cup ARP #/99, but have seen in hand at least 15+ copies of each Crosby and Ovy in-hand to have a good feel for which ones are likely real and which ones are outright fakes. That said, still for me, I am not sure I will ever know 100%.

For 15-16 Cup McDavid ARP #/99, UD officially has an image on their FB page of the entire print run. Good on them for that! ;)

I lost faith in ARP's and instead of chasing patches that I'll never 100% know if they are real or not, I (without planning or wanting to) got into grading instead for primarily scarcity and secondly market value attached with 3rd party grading.

Take the BGS 10 Pristine 05-06 Cup Crosby 1clr ARP that sold for US$125k from PWCC recently. I strongly trust this card has never been altered on a plain 1 color patch. BGS and PSA have been excellent noting trimmed cards and not issuing grades for any potential of trimmed/altered cards to protect their own product, integrity and brand. I have opened enough 05-06 Cup to know the hand packing, handling for signatures and the resulting average condition of these cards to know that a BGS 10 Pristine grade on ANY 05-06 Cup card is a true rarity in itself.
 
cygnusx1 said:
Are you only referring to 05-06 The Cup in this regard? Because if not...
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I focus on a very narrow sliver of the hobby. I have studied 05-06 Cup due to my interest and love for this set.

I have seen multiple examples of 05-06 Cup cards sent to PSA and BGS rejected with a "trimmed" result when I know these have been freshly pulles. Also, there are issues for grading the CONDITION for memorabilia cards thicker than 35pt. It is a much higher degree of difficulty to alter a card's CONDITION with corners, 8 edges and it being three dimensional.

My rule of thumb (far from foolproof) is that for cards thicker than 35pt, MEMORABILIA are far more likely to be altered than CONDITION. For cards 35pt or thinner, many of these don't have memorabilia and scammers would alter CONDITION for immoral lucrative schemes.

There is no perfect system. The largest 05-06 Cup collectors are well aware that some of their "sickest" patches may be forgeries. Smart guys, like ToddP, buy from big breakers directly right at product launch to get peace of mind with lowest chance of acquiring a fake.

With 05-06 Cup, "sick" patches were rare compared to other later years' releases. I remember pulling two best patches I've ever pulled for a W.Wolski ARP and F.Mahovlich Signature Patches that if I saw them on eBay today, I would stay far away from them and assumed they were fake. Again, no perfect system. Buyer beware. Suggest focusing on a narrow sliver and be an "expert" to minimize chances of buying an altered card.

I know my take is sad for me to contend with the horrible reality of forgeries and altered cards in the hobby. I used to love chasing sick patches, but now I've had to change my focus because of these realities. To each their own, but I have zero tolerance for fakes in my PC.
 
Looks like the winners fell between $1300-$2000, which is quite a spread.

For those who broke these back in the day, what did a typical tin contain? (I.e, 2 base, 1 RPA, 1 Limited Logo, etc.)
 
deepbluejacket said:
Looks like the winners fell between $1300-$2000, which is quite a spread.

For those who broke these back in the day, what did a typical tin contain? (I.e, 2 base, 1 RPA, 1 Limited Logo, etc.)
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Yeah, I'm surprised the range. Wonder what made the difference?

As far as what the tin contained, it was one base card, one rookie card and 2 gu/auto cards (but that varied, certain boxes had 5-6 cards at times). And then the foam in the boxes were a different story all together.
 
These sold for cheap and will be worth 5x this in a decade. Sure they likely hold 100 bucks in cards but same goes for all vintage wax. Bust an 85 opc wax box for 10k and you will get 2-3 Lemieuxs that grade 7/8. I’m not a sportscard investor but if I was I’d be all over these. 7-10k boxes in the next 10-15 years IMO
 

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