Crosby 20 years from now.

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DionPhaneufAuthentic

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Well obviously no one will know how he turns out but we can make predictions right??? lol well i was talking to my dad about this very topic and he said that he will prob be a good player but at the end of his career he will end up more like a sakic or yzerman... so im thinking to my self if his careers are like that and get inducted to the hall of fame wat will his rookie cards end up being valued at ???

tbh i think crosby is a tad over hyped and i think 20 years from now his cards will not be this pricey.

sorry for the long read
post your thoughts

Spencer
:flames:
 
A good theory, phanuef, I think. Prolly a lock for between 450-600 goals. The real question is will he ever raise the Cup, with the Pens or someone else?

I would say his cards will definitely de-value over time, but ya never know!
 
Keeping in mind that Crosby has tons of rc's compared to the greats of yesteryear, Yzerman has only 2 rc's, OPC and Topps.
 
His card will definitely go down just because of the mass printing and the hype coming to an end....Whose to say the kid will even play 20 years??....He's shown to be a little injury prone as of late....I'd say he'll score between 350-550 goals and between 1100-1300 points....Far from a Sakic or Yzerman but a good career none the less....
 
Crosby's only 21 and already has 282 games under his belt and just under 400 points. Baring any serious injury, 700 more games, he's on pace to score another 1000 points on top of his current point total.

I'd say 1600-1800 isn't much of a stretch if he stays healthy.

When you also consider that his cards came from packs that cost as much as $500 a pack (The Cup) and most of his RC are /99 to /999, and include autos and pieces of game used memorabilia, they'll certainly be worth a lot more on the market in the distant future.
 
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I think Crosby will probably finish his career with over 2000 points. He is usually good for 100 plus points per year and with him being so young as long as he doesn't suffer a serious injury which has to be assumed when your talking about a situation like this. He can play 15 more seasons and maybe even more if he wants. I think he ends up second to only Gretzky in terms of points when all is said and done. I don't even think we have come close to seeing the best that this guy can do. He has never really had elite wingers for an extended period of time. Hossa was probably the best and would of been a perfect fit for him long term.

Reguarding his card values I think they will stay up there to the level they are now or maybe even go up especially if he wins a Stanley Cup or two. Most of the Crosby RC's are numbered to less than 1000 and a player as popular as him that is a small enough size where it won't be easy tracking down a card of his in a few years. Even now certain RC's only pop up every few weeks or so. There is likley to be even fewer opprotunites as time goes on He is an icon in hockey as opposed to guys like Sakic and Yzerman who were great players but wern't marketed the way Crosby is. The only guy was Gretzky who is more noticeable world wide ever from a hockey perspective. 10 years from now there will be many new collectors that aren't in the hobby right now and there won't be any more Crosby RC's. Crosby will be a staple to many collections and thus there will be enough demand to keep his card values at a high level I believe.
 
Inflation over the next 20 years alone will drive the price of his cards up.

Assuming Crosby keeps a similar pace for another 15-20 years, player collectors stashing some of his cards away in the vault and the greater number of collectors he'll have over the next decade or two, prices are bound to go up.
 
katoy2j said:
I think Crosby will probably finish his career with over 2000 points. He is usually good for 100 plus points per year and with him being so young as long as he doesn't suffer a serious injury which has to be assumed when your talking about a situation like this. He can play 15 more seasons and maybe even more if he wants. I think he ends up second to only Gretzky in terms of points when all is said and done. I don't even think we have come close to seeing the best that this guy can do. He has never really had elite wingers for an extended period of time. Hossa was probably the best and would of been a perfect fit for him long term.

Reguarding his card values I think they will stay up there to the level they are now or maybe even go up especially if he wins a Stanley Cup or two. Most of the Crosby RC's are numbered to less than 1000 and a player as popular as him that is a small enough size where it won't be easy tracking down a card of his in a few years. Even now certain RC's only pop up every few weeks or so. There is likley to be even fewer opprotunites as time goes on He is an icon in hockey as opposed to guys like Sakic and Yzerman who were great players but wern't marketed the way Crosby is. The only guy was Gretzky who is more noticeable world wide ever from a hockey perspective. 10 years from now there will be many new collectors that aren't in the hobby right now and there won't be any more Crosby RC's. Crosby will be a staple to many collections and thus there will be enough demand to keep his card values at a high level I believe.
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Good points. And also some good stuff from Burner too. I think we've already seen a levelling off with some of his cards - i.e. the YG rookie. I believe it was once up to $400 US, now it has stabilized a bit at $300. You might see it go down a bit more, but probably not too much. And I don't think anyone should see Crosby's career as a disappointment if his numbers look more like Yzerman or Sakic (not that anyone is), rather than Gretzky or Lemieux. Yzerman and Sakic continue to be great ambassadors for the game (even though Stevie Y. is long gone). Crosby has proven to be pretty consistent and has been easily a top three player the past four seasons. We can't forget that he has already won the Art Ross and Hart, and has cracked the 100-point plateau twice. He should at the very least continue on the pace he is on, and I am sure he will be around within the next 20 years. This year has been an interesting one for him, as he has kind of taken a backseat in some ways to Malkin, though I think he is a more multi-demensional player that Malkin, and is more skilled. The point made about him having better wingers to play with is a good one. He will need a better supporting cast playing around him for certain. Somehow Sid has to reassert himself as the best in the game, or at the very least as a closer rival to Ovechkin (who I think is the best in the game today). He can do it, and his Art Ross/Hart trophy winning season proves it. But will he? Time will only tell.

And I digress. The Pens should try to look more like the team they were when they went to the Finals - having guy's like Roberts, Hossa, Malone and Laroque. They will need to make some key off-season moves - this will help out Sid and Malkin and help make the Pens into a powerhouse once again.
 
Inflation drives many things. The price of RC's is not really one of them. It's a visious circle, but time has simply proved that even the greats don't necessarily climb at the rate we might have hoped. Cards hit a peak and then level off. In this business, we see it time and time again. You can think what you want but just like the guys who loaded up on Jagr OPC Premier RC's when they were $50, I think you may end up a little disappointed 20 years from now. I think he is starting high with no room to rise.

Inflation versus gravity. I think gravity will win. Not to mention, in the next 20 years, the NEXT ONE will show up a few times (which is good for the hobby).

History repeats itself. He's not Jagr. Not yet.
 
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I wouldn't compare OPC Premier or Upper Deck cards from the early 90s where there were thousands maybe 10s of thousands of the same card to a Cup Patch/Auto /99 or some of the other lower print cards.
 
It's tough to really judge a guy who hasn't hit his prime yet. Whether or not his point average increases in his mid-late 20s will be a determining factor. And if Tavares comes out and gets 103 points in his rookie season it'll the the next next one all over again.
 
If we take away the inflation as a factor his cards will probably drop quite a bit especially his rc-year stuff. He'll probably be valued somewhere at the level Sakic-Yzerman are now.

He'll sure be remembered as one of the best of his time but as years go by it's inevitable another superstar will emerge and get attention as the "real" thing. By numbers I think a career total of 1600 points or more is possible, ofcourse it depends on how long he'll play but I think 1,25-1,4 pts/game is likely (0,3-0.4 goals/game + 1 assist/game). We have probably not seen his best season yet, but I doubt he will ever play a full season with over 1,7-1,8pts/game - neither will anybodyelse.

Yzerman, Esposito and Jagr once had 130-150pts seasons but so did Hawerchuk, Savard, Nicholls and Turgeon too.
 
Very interesting topic. I have often wondered about the Values of stuff 20 or 50 years from now. I once got some "advice" from a collector who had been around forever and he said that every generation there are 1 or 2 guys that will remain collectible way over everyone else and their RC will continue to escalate in value. In the 50's you have Rocket and Howe, 60's Orr, 70's - 80's Gretzky, etc.. To me this idea does make some sense. That said, if Crosby and Ovechkin end up being the two TOP players in the next 20 years, their stuff will be worth a lot of coin long-term. That said, Crosby Rookie stuff already sells really high so he may need to end up #2 on the all-time scoring list... I personally would not speculate on Crosby stuff. I'm not sure he is the best player on his team, never mind in the league... My $.02. Mike
 
in twenty years his rookies will be up. yes i do know that he has a lot but hear me out. out of his 99 cup auto/patch rookies how many are tucked away in PCs now? either people have a set of all the rookies or they are a crosby collector or else they just have that card and they plan on keeping it. his cards are getting even harder and harder to find now. his cards have stopped going up but don't forget that a year and a half ago to two years ago the canadian dollar was at par with the american. now it is somewhere around $1.20. us canadians are actually paying more than we were before. it has been mentioned also that their will be a new crop of collectors who come in over the next 20 years but that won't matter. sakic and yzerman have been mentioned in this thread and each have played about twenty years. if either of them had an auto/patch rookie card from twenty years ago, how rare would the be? also, how much money would they go for?

just a few thoughts from me
 
I agree you can't compare to Yzerman/Sakic because of the nature of the cards productions. OPC and Topps cards are produced in such volume. Even Crosby's YG is a short print from the regular set. Odds are you would pull maybe a Yzerman or Sakic in every box whereas you might get a crosby RC in every 5-6 boxes. Also Series 1 wax costs more than OPC or Topps did in the day.

I believe that IF he matches his expectations by scoring 1500-1600 points, winning 2-3 cups then his cards may see a slight increase.

It's hard to say what will happen with the limited stuff like his Cup RC because it is unprecedented, but there will always be high rollers who can drop 10 Gs and not even blink.
 

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