Crosby & Ovechkin - Young Gun Values (Sustainable or no?)

[rohara99]

What is everyone's opinion on Crosby and Ovechkin Young Gun values?

Ovie seems to have cooled off in BGS 9.5 (low subs) to around $1250 cdn with the most recent selling below $1200 on ebay.

Crosby is still selling around $2000 cdn with a the most recent sale below $1900.

Obviously there are a lot of Young Guns out there... but are these 2 in particular sustainable in the $1500-$2500 range long term?

Researching the past prices of these cards is interesting as it appear that they starting rising well before Covid and have then slowly creeped up, leveled off, and now have cooled a bit.

 

[capsfan30]

I'm far from an expert, so take this for the grain it's worth.

Unless there is just a massive influx of these cards onto the secondary market (person hoarding them decided to sell them all at once, etc), there is little chance the cards will drop out anytime soon, if ever. They have both essentially cemented themselves into the upper pantheon of all time hockey greats and will be in the HHOF after their careers are over.

The number of Young Guns printed that year were a fraction of what was printed in, say, McDavid's year. There won't be anymore printed (hopefully LOL), so I think it's safe to say that whatever is out there, is out there. In my opinion, the two cards only really have two places to go: up, up, and away, or holding steady where they are.

 

[rohara99]

I'm far from an expert, so take this for the grain it's worth.

Unless there is just a massive influx of these cards onto the secondary market (person hoarding them decided to sell them all at once, etc), there is little chance the cards will drop out anytime soon, if ever. They have both essentially cemented themselves into the upper pantheon of all time hockey greats and will be in the HHOF after their careers are over.

The number of Young Guns printed that year were a fraction of what was printed in, say, McDavid's year. There won't be anymore printed (hopefully LOL), so I think it's safe to say that whatever is out there, is out there. In my opinion, the two cards only really have two places to go: up, up, and away, or holding steady where they are.

I'm thinking the same? I think.... hah

And what is with the varying centering grades on these YG's. How are they not all 10 subgrades on centering? There is no centering in their design haha

 

[japhi]

There is a major asset bubble happening right now that includes alternative assets like sportscards that is not supported by fundamentals. When this finally pops, look out.

In that context I could see cards like the Crosby YG declining in price. I’m not a buyer of any asset that isn’t on sale, and if I was holding a few of these and I considered myself an investor in hockey cards, which I don’t, I would sell. I think these cards are seriously overbought.

 

[WatchMyBreaks]

McDavid BGS 9.5 $700 USD+
McDavid PSA 10 $1100 USD+

Ovechkin BGS 9.5 $950 USD+
Ovechkin PSA 10 $1900 USD+

Crosby BGS 9.5 $1500 USD+
Crosby PSA 10 $1900 USD+

McDavid is currently overvalued in my opinion in comparison to all time greats with Young Guns like Ovechkin and Crosby. PSA 10 copies are also fetching an insane premium over BGS 9.5 copies of the same card.

With PSA’s new stricter standards for handing out 10’a maybe this will be the new standard going forward where BGS 10s and PSA 10s become closer in value? More likely it seems this year that PSA 10 has become the step between a good BGS 9.5 and a BGS 10. There is definitely an investment opportunity in the hockey market to scoop up some cheap PSA 10 rookies from previous releases that haven’t realized the price in increase other sports are seeing.

 

[dismonkey1]

There is a major asset bubble happening right now that includes alternative assets like sportscards that is not supported by fundamentals. When this finally pops, look out.

In that context I could see cards like the Crosby YG declining in price. I’m not a buyer of any asset that isn’t on sale, and if I was holding a few of these and I considered myself an investor in hockey cards, which I don’t, I would sell. I think these cards are seriously overbought.

I am curious as to what the fundamentals are to sports card collecting outside of supply and demand? I see ebbs and flows in pricing, but once the prices get baked in, they aren't going back. A few years ago, you could by raw Crosby YGs in the 200-300 range. Barring a cataclysmic event, that isn't happening again Maybe like the housing market, there would be a correction that will hurt a little in the short term, but over the long term, prices would rebound and continue to go higher imo.

 

[Burner]

I am curious as to what the fundamentals are to sports card collecting outside of supply and demand? I see ebbs and flows in pricing, but once the prices get baked in, they aren't going back. A few years ago, you could by raw Crosby YGs in the 200-300 range. Barring a cataclysmic event, that isn't happening again Maybe like the housing market, there would be a correction that will hurt a little in the short term, but over the long term, prices would rebound and continue to go higher imo.

Once life goes back to normal and people put their focus (and money) on other things. It makes no sense that the price on a lot of these cards has seen a 5x increase. Crosbys were steady at $300-ish, Ovechkin pre-Cup was a $60-80 card and about $200 after the Cup. Then pandemic hits and all of a sudden they're $2000 cards? I don't see them dropping to pre-Covid prices but I could envision a decrease in value once people start putting their focus and money on other things.

 

[Boom Boom]

Once life goes back to normal and people put their focus (and money) on other things. It makes no sense that the price on a lot of these cards has seen a 5x increase. Crosbys were steady at $300-ish, Ovechkin pre-Cup was a $60-80 card and about $200 after the Cup. Then pandemic hits and all of a sudden they're $2000 cards? I don't see them dropping to pre-Covid prices but I could envision a decrease in value once people start putting their focus and money on other things.

This. There certainly is a massive asset bubble at the moment. Its been 12 yrs since the 2008 meltdown and many have forgotten what its like to be in one. If you're an investor, now is the time to sell. Buy low, sell high. If you're a card lover who wants to have a copy of one of the most iconic rookies of all time, then hold and enjoy.

 

[30ranfordfan]

Sportscards have boomed this year, in no small part due to the pandemic.

It's pretty clear that historically hockey cards have been less valued than other sports simply because of demand. There aren't nearly as many collectors, so the demand isn't there.

I think what we've seen with some of the top players (Crosby, Ovechkin, McDavid, Gretzky, etc) is that sportscards as an investment has become a big deal again... and people who are not necessarily hockey fans (or normally hockey collectors) have gotten into hockey, because they saw the potential growth.

That growth has happened quickly.

I just don't see how a big market correction happens on most of those cards. McDavid is a little newer... and more plentiful.... so maybe it could dip quite a bit.... but Crosby?

If you bought the cards for half (or less) than the current going rate - maybe you're inclined to sell, but I'm guessing that person has already sold... or is in the process of listing / selling.

If you bought a high grade one for $1200, and can flip it for $1500 - is that the investment you were looking to make?

If you're buying them for the current rate, are you going to be in a hurry to sell them off if they start to dip closer to $1k again? Or do you hang onto them?

What percentage of the print run is tied up in the hands of "collectors". People that have a single copy in their set, their RC collection, whatever? People that have owned them for more than a decade, and have no real desire to move them.

Over the next year, I suppose demand could drop.... but I don't really see the supply increasing dramatically. Maybe that "market correction" happens - but I'd bank on that being temporary... Crosby YG loses 20% of its value, but within a year or two it makes it all back, plus another 30%.

 

[rohara99]

I find the varying of opinions interesting... and obviously if anyone knew for sure they'd potentially be able to make a killing buying low and selling high.

A few month ago I sold my raw copies of Crosby and Ovie YG's for slightly above market rate (they were gem mint +) so I'm slightly kicking myself for not getting them graded. But at the time I was thinking there is no way they were worth that based on the fact that they sold for sub $500 for literally a decade... and I wasn't expected to get dragged back into the hobby lol.

With that said, it appears their values have dipped slightly. So I'm on the hunt. PC/long term hold this time.

 

[steveottfan]

While I do believe some cards are at some risk of taking a dive (early 90s graded cards in particular), I think the Crosby and Ovechkin Young Guns are not. I think you're seeing the result of those two guys in particular moving from star to legend status. The Young Guns is THE rookie to get for these guys and the cards will remain at the top of wantlists for generations of collectors. You might see some small fluctuations, but based on all the evidence, I think we've established a new floor.
This isn't the early 90s and the Sid and Ovi Young Guns were not produced at such a level that we can all of a sudden see a ton available and the value plummet. So long as these two guys continue to cement their iconic careers, generations of collectors will want these cards.