Well, so far even though the TSX was hammered today, Canada's economy has appeared to be somewhat insulated from the US economic meltdown. While the failure of the bailout will have a negative impact on Canada, it is unlikely that the Canadian economy will face issues as severe as those in the US.
In the states, if the media are to be believed, they are in for some very hard times, and I could see them mired in a severe recession for several years. It would take some really dramatic changes, and a whole lot of luck for the US to come away from this in anything less than 3 years, and without seeing some very very heavy job losses, which would be accompanied by continued precipitous drops in real estate values, considerably higher bankruptcy rates, and general hardship all around. Something to keep in mind though, is that for what I assume to be opportunity for personal gain, the powers that be (president bush, Bernanke, Paulson etc) are trying to paint a picture more dire than is neccesarily realistic, because they really wanted the bail out to proceed. Don't get me wrong, things are bad, and could become very very bad, but they may not be as bad as it seems. Only time will tell.
What does that mean for the hobby? Well, in Canada I think there will be offsetting factors. A slowdown in the economy may lead to a reduction in hobby purchases for some, but it would also mean more people staying home, rather than going on outings (ie. movies, amusement parks in the summer, theatre, etc.), and I would expect that to mean higher viewership of hockey games on TV, as people will still want to socialize, and getting together to watch the game is a common, and inexpensive vehicle for that. The more people watching hockey on TV, the more people who would be likely to gain an interest in collecting hockey cards. So the long and the short, in my opinion, is the Canadian hockey card market will be relatively unchanged.
In the US, I would expect to see something of a drop, possibly considerable, and that will lead to lower prices for all remaining collectors, including those in Canada as aggregate demand will be down.
There will still be insane prices paid for SSSP's that have player/set collectors who happen to be less affected by economic conditions, or who simply prioritize their collections over other possible expenditures.
