Established or Speculate: How do/would you invest/buy/collect?

TheGriceBoys

TheGriceBoys

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Sorry, I now we all do this for fun, but sometimes the fun involves great cards by default based on whom or what you collect, like you collect Penguins so you add Crosby cards as part of that.

And for the rookie collectors, regardless of sport, do you prefer to spend more in the short term and make more in the long term on a sure thing or established rookie.

Two hypothetical options:

Would you rather pay $500 for a Crosby or McDavid card now knowing it will rise, maybe not as dramatically, a slow, gradual rise, but you KNOW it WILL. In addition also knowing there's a chance it could explode if they win another/first Cup respectively.

Or would you like to gaze out into the future and maybe load up now at relatively CHEAP prices on a key rookie on a team that could win a Cup(s) and watch the trajectory of the cards go vertical if they win............or stagnate/drop if they bust?

So, more up front for stability and minimal, potential huge gains, or less up front for potential massive gain?
 
I am the long term guy for the more expensive stuff.

Short term I sell as soon as possible when it is the new rookie crop. Sometimes it will backfire but I would say 80% of the time it works out.
 
Rookiewise, I hearken to what a dealer advised long ago:
Sell'em while they're hot. If they're any good, you can buy'em back later.
 
I don't have the money to spend on the big ticket guys once they are already big tickets, so if I were to play this game, it would have to be speculate. It's rare when a $5 Young Gun explodes, but it can happen (Kucherov).
 
I am fortunate because the teams/players I picked have strong fan bases. Habs/Steelers/Lakers. All have great players and collectors. Collected Tiger Woods and was fortunate his stuff went crazy. Currently I go back and add vintage name Rookies Of my team. I subscribe to buying reasonable quality newer rookies- Young Guns McDavid/Matthews vs SP authentic for cost reasons.
 
In this current market I don't believe it is possible to speculate or reasonably guess where the value of anything will go. Sports cards, especially in other sports are appreciating like crazy. Its actually reminding me a lot of the Crypto markets in the fall of 2017. Mike Trout rookies have gone parabolic. Jordan and anyone associated with the guy pumped because of a documentary on ESPN. And anything Gary V. mentions on twitter gets an instant bump in price.

All I would suggest is that people that want to speculate should consider looking at hard signed autographs and graded rookies of household hockey names. By household I mean Gretzky, Crosby and McDavid. No one else crosses over that much in mainstream America.
 
cardboardnostalgia said:
In this current market I don't believe it is possible to speculate or reasonably guess where the value of anything will go. Sports cards, especially in other sports are appreciating like crazy. Its actually reminding me a lot of the Crypto markets in the fall of 2017. Mike Trout rookies have gone parabolic. Jordan and anyone associated with the guy pumped because of a documentary on ESPN. And anything Gary V. mentions on twitter gets an instant bump in price.

All I would suggest is that people that want to speculate should consider looking at hard signed autographs and graded rookies of household hockey names. By household I mean Gretzky, Crosby and McDavid. No one else crosses over that much in mainstream America.
Click to expand...

We know what's up with Jordan, it's the docu-series. I feel confident outside of the very top grades (9s and 10s) the market will correct and trend down eventually, meaning back to prices just slightly above where they were before "The Last Dance".

Trout? Hes an anomaly, he doesn't go down, he is, and will continue to, rise. He will have periods where he drops a bit on some cards, typically off season, but then when he picks up again, his cards go well beyond what they were at the high point before any drop. It's actually quite incredible.

As far as hockey, I agree, it's those 3, and maybe Ovie, then everybody else. Hockey is pretty tough to be investing in unless it's high grade rookies and vintage of HHOFers. It's truly a small pocket of the best of the best type cards making up probably 5% of everything, and then all the rest of the filler.
 
TheGriceBoys said:
We know what's up with Jordan, it's the docu-series. I feel confident outside of the very top grades (9s and 10s) the market will correct and trend down eventually, meaning back to prices just slightly above where they were before "The Last Dance".

Trout? Hes an anomaly, he doesn't go down, he is, and will continue to, rise. He will have periods where he drops a bit on some cards, typically off season, but then when he picks up again, his cards go well beyond what they were at the high point before any drop. It's actually quite incredible.

As far as hockey, I agree, it's those 3, and maybe Ovie, then everybody else. Hockey is pretty tough to be investing in unless it's high grade rookies and vintage of HHOFers. It's truly a small pocket of the best of the best type cards making up probably 5% of everything, and then all the rest of the filler.
Click to expand...


Yes I forgot to add Ovechkin. Especially during the lead up and possible/probable breaking of Gretzky's all time goal record.
 
It depends on how big of a home run you want to hit......

If you've got the patience, COMC is an amazing avenue for buying & flipping (at a nice profit), particularly with Young Guns.

Are you going to buy many for $5 - $10, that wind up being worth $100+ ? No you are not. That just doesn't happen. How many guys started out with little hype, and then became monsters?

But you can buy plenty for under $3, and later flip for $10-$20. Is that a lot of money? No, but it can be if you do it often enough.

If we're talking about hockey in general terms, as medium-to-long-term investments: It's the biggest names, and that's it. Cards, and their values, will always be a "supply & demand" thing. Demand will probably continue to climb for high grade McDavid Young Guns (easy example). Leon Draisaitl? I don't see him ever having the McDavid/Crosby/Gretzky level appeal, where he blows up with a wider audience.

The specifics mentioned in Barrie's post: The $500 Crosby or McDavid is the much safer bet, I think. Maybe you won't double your money in 3 years... but it will go up. Bet right, and pick the right player at the right time? I can think of two great examples from my own collection, over the past 10 years:

Jonathan Quick. I had Ultimate, SP Authentic, and BAP rookies... plus the /100 Parallel from SPA, and the /10 Parallel form BAP... and one of the Ultimate printing plates (was released in The Cup). I can remember REFUSING to pay $10 for his Future Watch, and holding out until I got a price I liked. I also turned down buying the black 1/1 from BAP... it was offered to me for (I think) $150.

I had a few early ITG GU & Auto cards too.

The three RCs, the two parallels, and the plate: I don't think I would have paid $100 total for those six cards. Everyone knows how much those ended up selling for later.... I probably moved mine a bit too early - I sold after the first cup win, but before the second.

Could I duplicate that? I don't think so. I'm not that smart, lol.


The other one I can think of: Jordan Binnington. The Edmonton Oilers had signed Ty Rattie. I was looking for a Cup ARP of Rattie for my collection, and kept hunting. No luck. I finally bought one - It was a lot of four Blues Cup Rookies: Binnginton, Rattie, Jori Lehtera, and I forget the 4th one (maybe it was only three? Doesn't matter).

Anyway, I paid $30 for the lot. I was happy. I then sold my 3-colour Binnington for $30, so I got the Rattie (essentially) for free. I was REALLY happy. Then I saw the cards jumped a bit in price. Oh well.

So yeah, if you think there's a magic formula out there.... or you know how to pick 'em, I think there's a ton of money that could be made. Will the LA Kings look good again in 3 years? Does Cal Petersen backstop them to another Stanley Cup?

Ilya Samsonov is going to take over the job in Washington. Does he keep it? Is he in net for Ovechkin's 2nd Cup, and his 895th goal?

You can buy Andreas Athanasiou for a song right now. Does he put up 85 points next year, riding shotgun with McDavid? Or is he a 3rd liner?

That's the thing.... buy up 100 copies of Athanasiou's YG at $3 a pop, there's a decent chance that you turn your $300 into $1500 by the middle of next season.... or you've got a $300 inventory that it will take you 7 years to unload, unless you're willing to take a bath on it. $300 on a nice McDavid card almost certainly fetches you more than that 2 years from now - but almost certainly not $1k.
 
If I had the money, I'd do both. Some blue chips along with some risk. If I had to choose though and it's totally disposable income? Probably the quantity speculative piece as that's more my style than wrapping everything up in one card.

Cory
 
This is an interesting topic. For the last decade or so, I have been collecting pretty much only my PC. Value wise, I'd say the player (Peter Forsberg) is solid. No real monster cards out there since he (along with the other stars of his era) doesn't have a RC that is worth more than a 1$. The rest of the cards go up and down. Up, mainly the hard signed UD autos. Down, mainly a lot of the ITG memorabilia that got devalued when they went out of business and a lot of the rarer stuff became easier to attain. Still, looking at a higher floor, lower ceiling (kind of like putting your money in a bond or CD). Other non-PC stuff that I should have held onto, I flipped too early.
After watching Jeremy's first YouTube collector's episode, I got to thinking about better ways to have fun and invest short, middle, and long term while still enjoying my PC.
I just don't see that much long term investor opportunities in the modern players outside of Crosby, and now, Ovechkin rookies (I don't count the vintage stuff or Gretzky RCs). Also, values overall don't compare to baseball or basketball.

Personally, I am thinking of setting aside some money and investing in some of the "lower" value Luka Doncic rookies as a mid-long term investment. However, it seems like everyone else is doing the same thing as prices go up by the minute. Then, you are always left thinking- how much higher can this base Prizm with a high print run go?

I forgot to add McDavid to the hockey investment side- but he really needs a Championship to pop imo.
 
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