Leaf Exclusive Nico Hischier

What in the smokey green hell does the devil's lettuce have to do with hockey cards? In any event, the key word there is "legal." If high-ranked prospect James van der Weed of the Kamloops Blazers gets a reefer madness deal orchestrated by Brian Green of Sweet Leaf to sign some rolling papers instead of hockey cards, I'm sure that people will collect those too.
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I had a good chuckle at the response above this morning. Very creative :laugh:

Anyways, my take on this is that from a player standpoint, these kids are being told to take the 'better' deal upfront in case the hockey career goes sideways. Just because you get drafted in the top 10, doesn't mean you are going to have a successful NHL career. If UD & Leaf aren't signing these guys to exclusives then they probably get paid the standard signing rate/auto (whatever that may be). It's really hard to debate it unless we know how much the exclusive is worth to them vs just getting paid freelance rates for signing.

As an agent I would expect they are trying to maximize return to their client since they probably get a % over the life of their player/agent agreement.

Most of the time it always comes down to money unfortunately.
 
I find it interesting that the arguments that the players may not understand some of the ramifications of signing with leaf (not getting a licensed auto RC, upset collectors, other isssues), but no one makes the assumption that it could be a huge selling point for leaf that they won't have to sign as many cards. I haven't pulled up numbers but I feel Leaf puts out far fewer signed RCs. If this is true I would probally see this as a positive. They have a lot going on rookie year. Signing for card companies is probably a pain with all the interviews and other things you had to do.
 
I find it interesting that the arguments that the players may not understand some of the ramifications of signing with leaf (not getting a licensed auto RC, upset collectors, other isssues), but no one makes the assumption that it could be a huge selling point for leaf that they won't have to sign as many cards. I haven't pulled up numbers but I feel Leaf puts out far fewer signed RCs. If this is true I would probally see this as a positive. They have a lot going on rookie year. Signing for card companies is probably a pain with all the interviews and other things you had to do.

It would also mean less money though...
 
It would also mean less money though...

Would it though? Leaf makes it sound like the deals are quite substantial. High enough that UD wouldn't/couldn't match. Jester makes a strong point.

Anyone have an estimate of autographs per rookie for a single year? It must be close to 5,000 autos for the rookies. Leaf may only be requesting 1000 autos. Even if the $ amount is the same, the rate is much more lucrative to sign with Leaf. Same pay for ~20% of the work.
 
It would also mean less money though...

Would it though? Leaf makes it sound like the deals are quite substantial. High enough that UD wouldn't/couldn't match. Jester makes a strong point.

Anyone have an estimate of autographs per rookie for a single year? It must be close to 5,000 autos for the rookies. Leaf may only be requesting 1000 autos. Even if the $ amount is the same, the rate is much more lucrative to sign with Leaf. Same pay for ~20% of the work.

My thoughts exactly...

It all depends on amount paid per auto. There is nothing to support that fewer autos means less money. In fact it could be the opposite and it likely is.
 
Would it though? Leaf makes it sound like the deals are quite substantial. High enough that UD wouldn't/couldn't match. Jester makes a strong point.

Anyone have an estimate of autographs per rookie for a single year? It must be close to 5,000 autos for the rookies. Leaf may only be requesting 1000 autos. Even if the $ amount is the same, the rate is much more lucrative to sign with Leaf. Same pay for ~20% of the work.

So you believe Leaf is paying players 5x what UD is offering? That would be pretty insane
 
I agree totally with what you said.

But how forthcoming are the companies being with the agents/athletes?

For example, if I started up a company right now making non-licensed hockey cards, and wanted to sign a player to an exclusive, it is entirely possible that I may "fudge the facts" so to speak. I may tell the agent/athlete that my sales are through the roof, and by signing to my company that the athlete will get lots of exposure, I may exaggerate my financial standing to make the player assume that my company is in fine financial form, or I may make my company's standing within the hobby seem greater than it is in order to entice the athlete to sign with my company.

Using the companies with a stake in the game right now, if I am Upper Deck, am I using the fact that I can offer the athlete a chance to sign cards depicting them in their team jerseys as a selling point? Is Leaf telling the athletes that they CAN'T, and that many collectors will snub the products as a result, thereby limiting the athlete's exposure? Is Upper Deck using the exclusive to coerce athletes, but neglecting to tell them of how disenfranchised many collectors are with their lack of QC, redemptions and shoddy customer service?

I am just curious how many of these exclusive athletes understand all of the little nuances that can affect this hobby.

I think 99.9% of the players don't care if stuff is licensed or not because they aren't card collectors, and frankly don't give a damn. The only people that actually care about this are hard core collectors. Casual collectors won't really care. Hockey fans, but not card collectors, will think that we have OCD, and ask "what's the big deal?", and we respond by going on a 30 minute rant explaining the nuances of the card collecting hobby to people who couldn't care less, and haven't heard of Upper Deck or Leaf. "What???!!!!"

It's all about the money for the players and agent. It's a business contract. But we as card collectors, hope and wish it was different and that there is change coming. Pssst...it's not.

In response to the part in bold above:
Is a player/agent going to think that by signing with UD instead of Leaf, that it will have any impact on their marketability and that it will help lure other non-card companies to get him to sign stuff?? Absolutely not. Card companies do not have that strong of a brand appeal.

This is a one way street. The player helps sell cards/product. The agent is the one that is going to merchandising companies saying that by using their client, that it will increase sales, and that the fees would be offset by the increased profits. Not the other way around.

The only companies that can say that they can raise the marketability of the player are nationally established companies with strong brands. Sorry to say, the card collecting industry just isn't that big.

So the same applies to the NHL brand. The NHL does not need Upper Deck or Leaf. Upper Deck/Leaf needs the NHL/players to sell their cards. The NHL awards it's license based on the potential success and financial stability of they company. So you have to be a big baller to play with the NHL.

The opposite holds true too. If the player/NHL think your company isn't going to be successful, based on your business plan and your Dragon's Den pitch, they're walking away. Because in the long run, you won't be able to pay their fees. It'll take more than a smooth talking salesman to get them to sign on the dotted line. There are a dozen of those a day coming to them with various products.

Also, this is not a partnership. It's a licensing agreement. You pay a fee to get the NHL brand on your products. As long as you pay the fee, they don't care about the details if your clients are happy with the product. That's for you to worry about. You start telling them about the details of your company sales strategy, explaining the impact of exclusives, and limited print runs, etc. and all they hear is "blah blah blah blah".
 
So you believe Leaf is paying players 5x what UD is offering? That would be pretty insane

I think he was just throwing out those numbers to make his point. But I do think (and I could be wrong) that Leaf is paying more than UD for less autos.
 
I think 99.9% of the players don't care if stuff is licensed or not because they aren't card collectors, and frankly don't give a damn. The only people that actually care about this are hard core collectors. Casual collectors won't really care. Hockey fans, but not card collectors, will think that we have OCD, and ask "what's the big deal?", and we respond by going on a 30 minute rant explaining the nuances of the card collecting hobby to people who couldn't care less, and haven't heard of Upper Deck or Leaf. "What???!!!!"

It's all about the money for the players and agent. It's a business contract. But we as card collectors, hope and wish it was different and that there is change coming. Pssst...it's not.

In response to the part in bold above:
Is a player/agent going to think that by signing with UD instead of Leaf, that it will have any impact on their marketability and that it will help lure other non-card companies to get him to sign stuff?? Absolutely not. Card companies do not have that strong of a brand appeal.

This is a one way street. The player helps sell cards/product. The agent is the one that is going to merchandising companies saying that by using their client, that it will increase sales, and that the fees would be offset by the increased profits. Not the other way around.

The only companies that can say that they can raise the marketability of the player are nationally established companies with strong brands. Sorry to say, the card collecting industry just isn't that big.

So the same applies to the NHL brand. The NHL does not need Upper Deck or Leaf. Upper Deck/Leaf needs the NHL/players to sell their cards. The NHL awards it's license based on the potential success and financial stability of they company. So you have to be a big baller to play with the NHL.

The opposite holds true too. If the player/NHL think your company isn't going to be successful, based on your business plan and your Dragon's Den pitch, they're walking away. Because in the long run, you won't be able to pay their fees. It'll take more than a smooth talking salesman to get them to sign on the dotted line. There are a dozen of those a day coming to them with various products.

Also, this is not a partnership. It's a licensing agreement. You pay a fee to get the NHL brand on your products. As long as you pay the fee, they don't care about the details if your clients are happy with the product. That's for you to worry about. You start telling them about the details of your company sales strategy, explaining the impact of exclusives, and limited print runs, etc. and all they hear is "blah blah blah blah".

WORD!
 
I know that lower tier baseball players were getting paid $3 per autograph when I worked for the Toronto Blue Jays. I don't know what UD is paying these rookies, but I would imagine it isn't much. Negotiating upwards for less autos would make sense for Leaf especially since their cards are limited to specific amounts of cases as it is. Plus, I would imagine the extra cost to cause a little chaos would be worth it to them too.
 
I know that lower tier baseball players were getting paid $3 per autograph when I worked for the Toronto Blue Jays. I don't know what UD is paying these rookies, but I would imagine it isn't much. Negotiating upwards for less autos would make sense for Leaf especially since their cards are limited to specific amounts of cases as it is. Plus, I would imagine the extra cost to cause a little chaos would be worth it to them too.

Rookies get around that same.
 
I guess we'll never know unless the actual contract numbers are revealed

There is data out there to give a peek into what may have been used in the contract.

1) Leaf offered a "We will slap an Eichel autograph sticker on your card" for $75. Let's assume that Leaf is non-Profit organization and detests profit. From this service, it's safe to say Leaf paid a maximum of $75 per auto. There's no way it was this much, but this is the ceiling.

2) Next, we can count the number of autos used by each company for 2015-16. This won't be 100% accurate, but will provide an overview. I didn't include numbers for "Group" autos with no stated print runs or some of the fringe sets like Tim Hortons, Hockey Card Day, etc. I used UD McDavid as a comparison for Eichel for their rookie year. I used the checklists available on www.cardboardconnection.com

Leaf - Eichel
H&P (340)
Superlative (36)
Metal (273)
Ultimate (226)
Leaf Best of Hockey (1600) (4 autos per case. How many cases?? I assumed 400)
Genesis (235)
TOTAL = 2710 (let's say 3000)

Upper Deck -- using McDavid as comparison
Fleer Showcase (693)
OPC Platinum (435)
SPA (1258)
SPGU (1028)
SPX (793)
Black (574)
Black Diamond (492)
Contours (234)
Ice (677)
Premier (365)
Cup (809)
Ultimate (664)
TOTAL = 8022 (let's say 9000)

Based on these estimates, UD would have used at least 3X as many autographs for Eichel's rookie year.

Pick a number between $0-75 for how much Leaf paid Eichel per autograph.

Let's say $10 per auto. It would have cost ~$30,000 for Leaf to secure their 3000 autos for the year. For UD to match that price and meet their print runs, it would have cost them ~$90,000 for 9000 autographs.

Would Leaf have gone up to $50 per autograph? This would have cost Leaf ~$150,000 for their 3000 autographs. For UD to match, it would have cost them ~$450,000 for their required 9000 autographs.

Is UD in a position to pony up that sort of money to prevent a player from going to an exclusive? Or would UD consider matching the Leaf Total, but then limit Eichel autos to certain sets (ie, only SPA and Cup)? Even if UD did match, then it comes down to Eichel weighing the difference between all that cash, and signing extra autographs.
 
I don't think UD even offered Patrick or Hischier an exclusive. Just the regular rookie rate. If it's around $3-$5 per auto, then the contract could be worth $27k-$45k. Those are based on numbers that are posted above.

However, I think the dollar amount is arrived differently for the exclusives for McDavid and Matthews. My guess is that it would have been based on how much a regular rookie has been getting paid, specifically any previous #1 overall picks (Mackinnon and Ekblad). So past history would dictate. It was posted that normally there are around 5000 rookie autos. That would put the fees around $15k-$25k.

In McDavid's case, they could have offered $40k, which would be a substantial raise in the fees for exclusivity, regardless of the number of autos to be signed.

UD then goes an produces 9000 auto cards, which essentially puts McDavid's autos back in the $3-$5 range.

I can see the same offered to Matthews because he was drafted by the Leafs.

This is a smart business move by UD. Canadian teams with #1 overall picks, and a clear consensus #1. McD a no brainer because he's Canadian too, and was done right at the draft. Matthews was done in November, after he had scored 4 goals in his 1st game.

Leaf offered Eichel more money than McDavid got from UD. I'm guessing $50k. And UD didn't bother offering Eichel the deal because he was #2 and was drafted by Buffalo. Now I base that on "record breaking exclusive signing" that was announced at time of Eichel's signing. However, the caveat is, record breaking for who and by how much? So it could be the same deal that McDavid got + $1 or just the highest Leaf has ever paid for an exclusive.

With Hischier and Patrick, if Leaf offered $30k (more money), and told the agent/player that they would sign less (less work), and UD was offering the same deal as any old rookie previously, then why wouldn't Hischier and Patrick sign the exclusive with Leaf? The dollar amount is relative to what the players are actually getting. So if it's at the low end of our guesses, say $3/auto, $15k total, then $20k would easily seal the deal for an exclusive.

With the success that the Oilers and Leafs the past season, they don't need to sign Hischier or Patrick. Plus with NJ and Philly getting 1st and 2nd pick, it's not going to drive up the amount of product being busted. So from a business POV, it doesn't make financial sense for UD to offer anything special to those 2 guys.

Leaf is taking a lot more risk with their exclusives. First, they don't know which team will draft them. Second, they aren't elite superstar material, so they may not put up big numbers. We all know this hobby is driven by hype. So if either or both players don't make their respective clubs and get sent back to the minors, demand will go down. Even if they make the team, and start off slow, demand will go down too.
 

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