Nathan Mackinnon Hobby Value Increase or Decrease over time

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Let's have a fun chat.

Now let's get to the fun..
Mackinnon.. Does his value increase or decrease at this point?
I have been holding several of his cards for this very day.. Now do I hold or let go?

Hit me!

If any of you turn this into a negative or bash post, I will shut it down and issue a warning(s). I am sick of the negativity and I want this to be fun. So let's be civil about this.
 
MacKinnon is such a hard guy to get a pulse on market-wise because of his lack of hardware approaching ten years in the league. He’s got a Calder and you could argue got robbed of a Hart the year Taylor Hall won it but that’s it.

He could (hopefully!) add a Cup to the resume in a week or two which is what matters most ultimately but I don’t know if he’ll be able to stack the trophy case enough to really reach that next tier. He’s got the unfortunate reality of Connor McDavid hogging the Art Ross trophies while they’re both in their primes, and even if McD doesn’t win it you’ve still got Draisaitl to worry about as well. I’m not sure he can win a Rocket with Ovie and Matthews and a few other under appreciated goal scorers putting up 40-50+ every year. Maybe he can get a Hart win sometime but he’s got competition on his own team now with Cale Makar stealing some of the bright lights. It’s truly very hard to pin down what his ceiling could be and as much of an elite talent he is it’ll probably take a Herculean season (and let’s face it better luck with injuries) to overcome some of the performances of other superstars around the league and run away with some individual awards.

No matter what happens Nate is one of my favorite players and I’ll cheer for him his whole career. I really hope he can win the Cup so I can try to make it to the parade being I live close to Cole Harbour. GO AVS!
 
I'd probably start selling if I was in your shoes. MacKinnon just seems terribly underappreciated in the hobby. Being in the SCF (and probably winning it) has increased his value but unless the Avs go on a 2-3 year run, I don't see his cards going higher than they are right now. The Golden Child on that team is Makar.
 
Depending on what you are holding perhaps now is a time to unload some duplicates with him being hot/potential of a cup, and hang on to some for the future should they win etc.

I bought a 7 card MacKinnon lot in hopes of this. I’ve sold two to friends at cost, I kept one and have sold 2 of the remaining 4 during the last round. I have one up now during the finals and will hold the last one to see if they win. If they don’t I’ll just hang onto it until next year and see what happens.

Best of luck with whatever you do. If you’ve been holding them since 13-14 you will do well selling regardless.
 
Admittedly, I'm not quite as experienced in the hobby as many others on here but I think Mack's values are much more likely to trend downwards over time than upwards. His individual trophy case will, most likely, be remarkably lighter than his contemporaries. No Harts, Art Ross, and it doesn't look like he will pick up a Conn Smythe in this run either. Rocket(s) don't seem likely given he's never placed top 5 in goalscoring either. He's also no longer the clear cut best player on his own team with Makar there which I imagine only hurts his values but that's more conjecture on my part.

The positive is that Mack is still relatively young at 26, turning 27. While he's no ironman himself, neither is Makar, Rantanen, or Landeskog. His point production remains strong when healthy. Sakic and Forsberg both won Harts at ages 31 and 29 respectively. Patrick Kane won his at 27. He still has time but the clock is ticking. I happen to think, without any evidence, he'll win a Hart in the next 3 years but even if he doesn't he's a likely future HOFer and that's enough for me to have his cards forever.

This is all without consideration for the overall hockey/sports card market as a whole. If the entire market goes further south the rest of this year/next year then it won't matter as much what Mack has done. I think, in your shoes, I'd sell the more common cards and capitalize on the shorter-term prices and hold the longer/rarer stuff. Given your time in the hobby I imagine your cost basis is much lower than most so you'd still be making out well no matter what.

Anyways, I hope you found that helpful, thanks for reading!
 
If Avs win the cup and remain a contender for a few more years I think demand for MacKinnon will rise. He's undervalued right now. I'd pick one or two shiny cards you like and hold them long term and start offering up the rest.
 
Punt the massive population stuff like YGs and Prizm. Price the must-haves like RPAs and FWAs dearly.
 
I'd probably start selling if I was in your shoes. MacKinnon just seems terribly underappreciated in the hobby. Being in the SCF (and probably winning it) has increased his value but unless the Avs go on a 2-3 year run, I don't see his cards going higher than they are right now. The Golden Child on that team is Makar.

This. He seems to have the same syndrome that Steven Stamkos has hobby wise: “hockey good” but not “hobby good”. I was shocked to see how (IMO) low the prices of both players were. I don’t know what either has to do to get more hobby love, but I don’t think whatever that is is going to happen.
 

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