No one is discussing the complete debacle from Friday?

[suitman19]

How is it ' The Integrity of the Draft'?

Do you really think the Red Wings tanked and didn't play well intentionally?

Do you really think that other than basketball (which depends on basically 8 players),
that professional athletes WANT to go out and lose?

Those 8 teams had a better chance than Detroit did of getting the 1st pick.
And it gets worse for Ottawa (on a pick by pick basis).

"It’s different than previous seasons though because the combined odds are used for a second lottery. So those teams effectively have eight combined attempts at 1st overall instead of having eight individual long shots at 1st overall."

And that is really absurd.
One or two here need to try to understand statistical probability.

Play-In or Playoff, They are still in a chance for the Cup.


And yes... F the Red Wings??
Why, because they tried to win for 25 years instead of dumping to rebuild?

 

[walter5o9]

I personally think that this is great that a team, yet to be eliminated won the first overall pick.

Im from the Philadelphia area and hate the idea of tanking to get a high pick. Now Im not saying Detroit tanked the season but the fact that its going to an 8th-ish seed, to me that makes the league better.

Heres my thoughts. Very rarely do you see a team get the number one pick then immediately become a contender. The last time I cant think of that was with Lebron James (and I think it took him two years).

If a team say is the 17th team, first out of the playoff spot, they should have the best chance to win the 1st overall pick.

1 if you are that close to the playoffs you are going to fight to get in, cause once you are in who knows what can happen, wasnt the Hurricanes an 8th seed and win it?

2 that pick is going to be a lot more meaningful and impactful for your club for years to come, they will get put on prime time games and will be great for TV ratings.

3 that pick is typically buried on a team that is terrible and will have a hell of a time getting out of the basement. nothing like wasting 6 years of our career on a team thats making mistake after mistake....See Rick Nash

4 the competition level would be insane, with it constantly changing, and could propel this sport. it would be hard a hell for a team to be a dynasty

So my thoughts would be if your the worst place team like Detroit this year, getting a number 1 is great but you need a lot more than that to succeed.

Placed 17-18-19 (in the league) would have the best odds at getting the top three picks...which is to help competitive balance. Paced Last, second to last, third to last would have the best odds at picks 4-6....with the rest of the worst teams filling out the odds in the rest of the lottery....now this is a lottery so teams could move up and down but this is how I think the NHL draft should be ran.

Maybe im just nuts though.

 

[tiger tiger]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/shane-doan-tanking-gold-plan-nhl-lottery-draft/

Shane Doan has pushed for the Gold Plan, which rewards non-playoff teams, and can deter tanking. The plan seems to hold water.

Basically, the draft ranking is based on how many points a team gets AFTER they have been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. This would discourage tanking since the points you get would get you a higher pick. So winning games that don't count actually would count for something.

In the case of Detroit, since they were eliminated early, they have more games to accumulate the most points and secure 1st overall. For teams that were in the playoff hunt and just miss the playoffs, they won't have a chance at top 3 picks (which is the case now).

 

[WatchMyBreaks]

How is the league better if a team like Detroit, that prints money for the league and has fans everywhere, is terrible? Dylan Larkin is a #2 center on most teams, they need talent in every position and have terrible contracts that are years away from escaping from. This is a team that had one of the worst seasons in NHL history, none of which was tanking or planned years ago to draft Lafreniere.

On the other hand, a team like Carolina or Arizona can win first overall while almost making the playoffs. How is this beneficial from a business perspective? Is Alexis Lafreniere playing in Glendale going to build popularity of hockey in the US? That isn't even imagining a scenario where Edmonton, Pittsburgh or Chicago win the 1st overall pick.

Everything about this outcome screams trying to fix something that wasn't broken. At most all they had to do was prevent teams that already drafted 1st overall from doing so for a number of years. Detroit has drafted 1st overall once in 34 years, in that time the following teams have also drafted 1st overall:

The reward for being a revenue generator, competing every season and sustained success is being left hung out to dry by the league in your most desperate time.

 

[walter5o9]

....

How is the league better if a team like Detroit, that prints money for the league and has fans everywhere, is terrible?
---They are not, the Red Wings are a staple in the NHL, but it doesnt mean that they should be handed something.
Dylan Larkin is a #2 center on most teams, they need talent in every position and have terrible contracts that are years away from escaping from.
---This was another point of mine, sometimes bad decisions in the front office and lead to a team being crippled for years, but at the same time why should a new player be punished for something that was out of their control? Not saying being number 1 overall and making millions is a punishment but being tied to a team that really cant do anything is.
This is a team that had one of the worst seasons in NHL history, none of which was tanking or planned years ago to draft Lafreniere.
---I dont think any team in the NHL is a tanker, players of this sport have too much pride. They play injured, take a puck to the face...get a couple of stitches and are right back out there. Losing on purpose is not ok and should never be accepted.

On the other hand, a team like Carolina or Arizona can win first overall while almost making the playoffs. How is this beneficial from a business perspective?
---A team like Carolina is exciting, being right on the edge of playoffs, if they got that extra bump in Lafreniere, they could be scary to face Is Alexis Lafreniere playing in Glendale going to build popularity of hockey in the US?
---It very well could, AZ has a solid team and could use the extra elite talent that may not always look at AZ first, just because they are in the desert doesnt mean they should be overlooked. Plus theres always that next kid looking for a sport idol, didnt Auston Matthews come out of AZ?
That isn't even imagining a scenario where Edmonton, Pittsburgh or Chicago win the 1st overall pick.
I wouldnt be mad at Chicago, but Edmonton and Pittsburgh were both handed Elite Superstars....lets be real

Everything about this outcome screams trying to fix something that wasn't broken. At most all they had to do was prevent teams that already drafted 1st overall from doing so for a number of years. Detroit has drafted 1st overall once in 34 years, in that time the following teams have also drafted 1st overall:

The reward for being a revenue generator, competing every season and sustained success is being left hung out to dry by the league in your most desperate time.

---Just cause the Wings drafted one time number one overall in the past 34years doesnt mean that they should get it or it be handed to them. Detroit was a Juggernaut for many of those 34 years, 97,98,02,08 were all Stanley Cup Championship years, I dont feel sorry for the Wings because things are tough. Im not saying that they didnt deserve those cup either, they had hell of a scouting (HOFS Zetterberg 7th rounder and Datsyuk 6th rounder), but just cause things are bad it doesnt mean you should be bailed out, especially as team as prestigious as the Wing. Also what does revenue generating have to do with this? The Wings are established and hockey fans are loyal through and through. As a company you want to see every market you are in grow and succeed, not just one. The better the league is, the better your product. This includes those teams that are not an Original Six, or based in Canada.

 

[WatchMyBreaks]

It’s not a bailout or being handed a pick. No Red Wings fan asked to be handed first overall because that isn’t the system that is in place. The system that was in place didn’t allow for the “top” eight best/worst teams in the league to bundle their chances together to draft first overall and then have another lottery after the fact.

Ottawa and Detroit owned three of the top five spots going into the lottery and walked away with #3,#4, and #5. That isn’t a well thought out outcome. And I won’t even begin to address your tired points that Detroit’s previous success precludes them from being entitled to normal lottery rules.

They played by the rules every step of the way, were punished for spending money pre cap, punished for signing players to legal deals and now punished for being bad enough to need a top pick but not good enough to be part of an eight team block with insane combined odds to draft 1st overall.

 

[walter5o9]

It’s not a bailout or being handed a pick. No Red Wings fan asked to be handed first overall because that isn’t the system that is in place. The system that was in place didn’t allow for the “top” eight best/worst teams in the league to bundle their chances together to draft first overall and then have another lottery after the fact.

Ottawa and Detroit owned three of the top five spots going into the lottery and walked away with #3,#4, and #5. That isn’t a well thought out outcome. And I won’t even begin to address your tired points that Detroit’s previous success precludes them from being entitled to normal lottery rules.

You missed the point on that one. I could care less if Detroit got the first or the last pick. What Im saying is I dont feel sorry for them, theyve had great success for the majority of the 34 years. It would be comparable to Patriots/Red Sox, Yankees, Lakers fans complaining that there team is bad and should have that number one pick. All prestigious franchises and all had great success, so what if they have a tough stretch. I never said that they should be eligible for the number one or have the best odds, just Oh-Well sorry everything isnt roses for the Wings right now. Many other teams/fans go through this every year....welcome to the club!

They played by the rules every step of the way, were punished for spending money pre cap, punished for signing players to legal deals and now punished for being bad enough to need a top pick but not good enough to be part of an eight team block with insane combined odds to draft 1st overall.

They got a top pick just not the number 1, number 2s in recent years,
Kaapo Kakko
Andrei Svechnikov
Nolan Patrick (TBD, Migraines)
Patrik Laine
Jack Eichel

Pretty damn good players here if you ask me. And you keep saying that they are being punished. They arent its.. a lottery nothing is guaranteed.


....

 

[WatchMyBreaks]

They got a top pick just not the number 1, number 2s in recent years,
Kaapo Kakko
Andrei Svechnikov
Nolan Patrick (TBD, Migraines)
Patrik Laine
Jack Eichel

Pretty damn good players here if you ask me. And you keep saying that they are being punished. They arent its.. a lottery nothing is guaranteed.


....

They’re getting the 4th overall pick, which is most likely Jamie Drysdale or Marco Rossi. Both significant downgrades compared to Lafreniere. You’re comfortable with Detroit getting “screwed” because they were a model franchise for years while completely mismanaged franchises like Edmonton may get another franchise player?

Nothing about that is good for the league and only fits into the narrative that previously good teams should suffer because teams like Buffalo and Edmonton somehow have yet to pull out of their tanking efforts.

 

[walter5o9]

Your right in that I thought they had the 2...my bad

Im assuming you are a Wings fan and thats why this is hitting a nerve. You are right that they were a model franchise...and im sure they will get back there...but what im saying is that it could be good for other teams to strive as well. Getting that pick in Carolina/AZ/NYI/FLA/Cal/Winn etc... is huge and could alter the teams path for years to come.. So Yes, Im Ok with the Wings not having the number one pick thats all im saying. Was it right that these outside teams had a 24% chance at one (i think that % is correct)....thats TBD, but never has a Pandemic shut down sports across the globe, things are different and timing hurt the Wings....I dont think it was anything intentional. Did the Wings get a raw deal...yea....but again I like to see other teams strive too. Thats my whole point.

 

[cygnusx1]

Ottawa and Detroit owned three of the top five spots going into the lottery and walked away with #3,#4, and #5. That isn’t a well thought out outcome.

I don't understand this line of reasoning. It's called a lottery for a reason, isn't it?

 

[suitman19]

I don't understand this line of reasoning. It's called a lottery for a reason, isn't it?

Yes - but not all lottery odds are equal.
The NHL is trying to tell you that the odds on this lottery were exactly the same as the previous year and that is not quite true.

 

[30ranfordfan]

The Wings didn't get screwed by the revised system this year. They had exactly the same chance of winning the lottery as they would have in any other year.

The only thing that changed is that the TBD teams, effectively pooled their odds at getting one (or more) of the higher picks.

Look at the math. Do you know what the chances are, of the last place team, ending up with the 4th overall pick? It's 50.6%. That Detroit would fall to 4th.... it's about as likely as you flipping a coin, and getting tails.

Now, that's with the new(ish) systems, where all three of the top picks are up for grabs, and adjusted (slightly) since Vegas came into the league.

The 18.5% chance of getting the 1st pick, while that gave them the best chance of any single team winning - there's a much better chance they don't.

2019: New Jersey (3rd), New York (5th), Chicago (10th) all moved up. Last place Ottawa fell to 4th, but their pick was in the hands of Colorado.

2018: Buffalo, the last place team, actually retained the #1 pick. Carolina jumped from 11th to 2, and Montreal from 4 to 3

2017: Devils (5th), Flyers (13th), and Stars (8th) all moved up bug, and bumped the bottom three teams down to 4-5-6.


While I do understand it looks as though the bottom 8 teams in the lottery get pooled as one... that's only because the result is the same, not because that's how the lottery worked. Team E, with a 2.5% chance, is who won. In a normal year, that would have meant that the team picking 12th moved up to first.

The way they did this: The 8 TBD teams all got a 3% chance of winning the 1st overall pick (their combined 24%, and then the 1-in-8 drawing that comes up again).

Assuming the bingo balls fall in the same place: If they'd waited until after the play-in games to do this.... so they wouldn't need TBD teams (and could rank everyone in their right spot): Detroit still walks away with the 4th overall pick.


If the criticism is being thrown at the system in general, rather than this year specifically, then I think there is a strong point to be made. The entire purpose of the draft is distribution of talent. Give the best prospects to the weakest teams. Doing a draw where any of 15 teams can end up with the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd pick: It makes it almost certain that at least one of those high picks will go to a team that is not "bad", just "not great", "unlucky", or "injured".

Is that right? I dunno. The system was designed to top stop teams from tanking (Ottawa, Buffalo) and to stop rewarding inept management (Edmonton). Does it do that? IMO, no. I mean, it takes away the "likely" reward, and replaces it with a good chance of the reward, and a nice consolation price.

 

[tiger tiger]

The Wings didn't get screwed by the revised system this year. They had exactly the same chance of winning the lottery as they would have in any other year.

The only thing that changed is that the TBD teams, effectively pooled their odds at getting one (or more) of the higher picks.

Bingo.

Non-Qualifying Team E won the lottery. If it was based on just the standings, the Canucks actually won the lottery. :|
The change in the lottery is that now the 8 non-qualifying teams get an equal chance at that pick. Who actually got screwed are the teams that had lower points that won't make the qualifying round. The teams that benefit the most from the current lottery are teams that were higher in standings but lose in the qualifying round. Pittsburgh would gain the most if they lost in the qualifying round, because if they had truly ended up missing the playoffs in a normal season, based on their points, they would have most likely been 9th in the East, and possibly 15th worst record. So their odds of getting 1st overall would have been 1%. But I think it is around 3% now (assuming they lose).

As for Lafreniere going to a non-traditional sport market, the same could have been said about Lemieux going to Pittsburgh. And Crosby too. Interesting how a couple of elite superstars can change the fortunes of a franchise.

Detroit will be fine. I have a lot of confidence in Stevie Y to make the best out of what he is given. Oh...and guess who was picked #4 in the 1983 draft? Some guy named Steve Yzerman.

 

[bunkman]

The Wings didn't get screwed by the revised system this year. They had exactly the same chance of winning the lottery as they would have in any other year.

The only thing that changed is that the TBD teams, effectively pooled their odds at getting one (or more) of the higher picks.

Look at the math. Do you know what the chances are, of the last place team, ending up with the 4th overall pick? It's 50.6%. That Detroit would fall to 4th.... it's about as likely as you flipping a coin, and getting tails.

Now, that's with the new(ish) systems, where all three of the top picks are up for grabs, and adjusted (slightly) since Vegas came into the league.

The 18.5% chance of getting the 1st pick, while that gave them the best chance of any single team winning - there's a much better chance they don't.

2019: New Jersey (3rd), New York (5th), Chicago (10th) all moved up. Last place Ottawa fell to 4th, but their pick was in the hands of Colorado.

2018: Buffalo, the last place team, actually retained the #1 pick. Carolina jumped from 11th to 2, and Montreal from 4 to 3

2017: Devils (5th), Flyers (13th), and Stars (8th) all moved up bug, and bumped the bottom three teams down to 4-5-6.


While I do understand it looks as though the bottom 8 teams in the lottery get pooled as one... that's only because the result is the same, not because that's how the lottery worked. Team E, with a 2.5% chance, is who won. In a normal year, that would have meant that the team picking 12th moved up to first.

The way they did this: The 8 TBD teams all got a 3% chance of winning the 1st overall pick (their combined 24%, and then the 1-in-8 drawing that comes up again).

Assuming the bingo balls fall in the same place: If they'd waited until after the play-in games to do this.... so they wouldn't need TBD teams (and could rank everyone in their right spot): Detroit still walks away with the 4th overall pick.


If the criticism is being thrown at the system in general, rather than this year specifically, then I think there is a strong point to be made. The entire purpose of the draft is distribution of talent. Give the best prospects to the weakest teams. Doing a draw where any of 15 teams can end up with the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd pick: It makes it almost certain that at least one of those high picks will go to a team that is not "bad", just "not great", "unlucky", or "injured".

Is that right? I dunno. The system was designed to top stop teams from tanking (Ottawa, Buffalo) and to stop rewarding inept management (Edmonton). Does it do that? IMO, no. I mean, it takes away the "likely" reward, and replaces it with a good chance of the reward, and a nice consolation price.

Where's the like button? I agree 100%.

 

[Leafsfan1967]

I didn't think Toronto had a shot at 1st pick overall, but just read the 1st round pick sent to Carolina in the Patrick Marleau deal, is top 10 draft protected. So theoretically, if they lose to Columbus in the play-in round, they could in reality, win the 1st pick overall, and take Lafreniere. Carolina would instead get Toronto's 1st round pick in 2021.

They would then need the salary cap to hit 110 million going forward. LOL

 

[penguinfan]

It sucks but what can ya do. If Pittsburgh goes out in the pre-playoff series I'll be glad their 1st rounder is safe... I rather see them win but the insurance since under normal circumstances pens would probably have a pick in 20s

 

[TheGriceBoys]

Wow, what a spirited discussion!

My team picks in the two slot and already has arguably one of, if not the best, farm system in the NHL, so I'm good. :beer:

Popcorn please. Carry on, as you were!

:kings:

 

[tiger tiger]

Wow, what a spirited discussion!

My team picks in the two slot and already has arguably one of, if not the best, farm system in the NHL, so I'm good. :beer:

Popcorn please. Carry on, as you were!

:kings:

yes, Kings have a great prospect pool. Already super deep down the middle, and with Byfield or Stutzle at #2, Kings are pretty set on forward.

Turcotte, Kupari, Vilardi, Akil Thomas, Fagamo, Kaliyev, Tyler Madden, and Anderson-Dolan. There's you're future top 9. Some will have to move to the wing, but there are a couple of Right shot C, so that definitely makes it easier to shift someone to RW. Dubas could eventually be on the 4th line and special teams.

Bjornfot looks solid already on D. LA has a good chance of picking up a solid D in the early 2nd. With the shortened season, there could be some decent players that didn't get scouted enough and would be available in the later rounds.

My gut tells me LA is going to select Byfield, mainly because of his size and potential to be a power forward, and play a physical type of game to balance out the line.

Ottawa will be happy to pick Stutze to centre Brady Tkachuk. Again, good complement of types of player.

Detroit will have the toughest decision on weather to go forward or d. Even, right side or left? Lots of holes to fill up in Detroit, which do you go first?