Numbers Crunching SPx Style

[vodkalodka]

For numbers geeks like myself, I love it when the companies put out the checklists and production runs out before release. Especially when they announce the guaranteed hits. It allows for me to satisfy my OCD, Its like Christmas!

So SPx was a little suprising to me once I got started. First off, what actually allowed me to crunch the numbers, the Ice RCs

#/1999 1:2.15 boxes
#/999 1:3.07 boxes
#/499 1:5.38 boxes
#/99 1:43.38 boxes (so just over 1 in 3 cases)

Now the minor stuff that's numbered
Legends 1:1.43 boxes
Finite RCs Level 1 1:2.39 boxes
Finite RCs Level 2 1:14.37 boxes (so looks like 1 per case, just hope you don't hit Tangradi)
Finite RCs Level 3 1:36.15 boxes (so similar to Ice, just under 1 in 3 cases)

Now the RCs
SPx Rookies 1:1.08 boxes
Rookie Jerseys 1:2.69 boxes
Rookie Materials Level 1 & 2 1:1.59 boxes (this will be a mixed blessing I think as there are much better RCs for some of these, but will drive the set builders nuts. Also no idea how much harder the Level 2s are :|)
Rookie Auto Jerseys Level 1 1:1.03 boxes
Rookie Auto Jerseys Level 2 1:7.17 boxes (so does look like in most case there will be 2)

Rookie Patches Total 1:17.75 boxes
Rookie Materials Patch Level 1 1:214.75 boxes
Rookie Materials Patch Level 2 1:357.92 boxes
SPx Rookie Patch 1:85.90 boxes
Rookie Auto Patch Level 1 1:33.04 boxes
Rookie Auto Patch Level 2 1:143.17 boxes

Misc GU Autos and Patches
Spectrum Jersey 1:11.77 boxes
Winning Materials Auto 1:29.83 boxes
Winning Combos Autos 1:87.65 boxes
Winning Trios 1:13.85 boxes
Winning Materials Patch 1:10.48 boxes
Winning Combos Patch 1:19.98 boxes

So all in all I found it odd that the Rookie hits seem to be much easier to come by than the Patch and Auto parallels of the GUs. But the unnumbered Flashback Fabrics, Auto'd Flashback Fabrics, and Shadowbox versions do add a lot to those too. All in all seems very loaded up this year.

I hope everyone enjoys this.

Also Bruce, if you'd like me to do something like this for the Magazine when the numbers are available, I'll gladly do it. Might need someone that's a little better at editing/writing as I'm neither. Just like crunching the numbers.

Ron

 

[frankiefives]

Love these posts! It makes life easier for wax breakers like myself. Well done!

 

[vodkalodka]

It also helps me decide if I'm going to dare a case. Maybe I should contact Bruce myself about doing these for the mag, eventhough they would be after the fact.

 

[Micheal Doyle]

I think you should set up a email list or pm list and send it to everyone interested. I know it would help me whan i decide on a case. I hate numbers.

 

[paulxing]

wait... auto rookies aren't 1 per box? you could technically nto get a single auto rookie? and what if there are hot boxes? Or Ice packs?

 

[NNeves]

The Shadow Box and Shadow Box Stoppers were 1:case last year, correct? If that's true again this year you should be able to calculate the production runs on these as they are unnumbered (assuming there are no SPs).

EDIT: Awesome stuff, I also found this very helpful.

 

[vodkalodka]

wait... auto rookies aren't 1 per box? you could technically nto get a single auto rookie? and what if there are hot boxes? Or Ice packs?

Have no idea what you are talking about for hot boxes. I have not heard of them or seen them mentioned anywhere for SPx.

As for the Ice Packs, that is what allows the numbers to be calculated. Since the Ice Packs are 1 per box and Ice Rookies are 1 per pack, it gave the approximate production run.

As for the main point, the auto rookies are 1 per box (I don't have the numbers in front of me). The Level 1s are just over 1 box because of the Level 2s. You should get either a Level 1 or Level 2 in every box, and I would imagine some boxes might have 2 true Auto RCs or 2 if you count the Patch Parallels.

Also the Shadow box odds are on blowoutcards.com or dacardworld.com, don't remember which right now.

For all of those interested in the stats/odds for when stuff comes out, pm me and start to compile an email or pm list.

Ron

 

[NNeves]

Also the Shadow box odds are on blowoutcards.com or dacardworld.com, don't remember which right now.

Thanks Ron. Help me out, numbers are not my specialty. What would this put the print runs at (approximately)? The SPx print run is not obvious to me.

 

[KabbyKev]

Ron, just checking - did you keep in mind that SPx cases are 14 boxes, not the usual 12?

Kev

 

[joecoolio]

Great breakdown!

 

[vodkalodka]

Ron, just checking - did you keep in mind that SPx cases are 14 boxes, not the usual 12?

Kev

Yeah I did. I was just more trying to figure your odds out for a box pull. When I did mention per case numbers I did divide by 14 instead of 12, unless someone see's a mistake.

 

[vodkalodka]

Thanks Ron. Help me out, numbers are not my specialty. What would this put the print runs at (approximately)? The SPx print run is not obvious to me.

Based on the Ice RCs, approximate print run of SPx is 21,475 boxes give or take what they take out for damage, Quality Control inspection, or hold for replacements.

As for the Shadowbox print runs here's my estimations based on the the odds and number of cards in each set:
Shadowbox (22 different cards) 1:439 boxes = 2-3 of each
Stoppers (12 different cards) 1:805 boxes = 2-3 of each
Level 1 Autos (2 different cards) 1:1663 boxes = 6-7 of each
Level 2 Autos (2 different cards) 1:6653 boxes = 1-2 of each

I know that seems really low but its what the math shows.