Nylander: 6 years, $6.9 AVG

If (or when?) they have to move him, I think it will be an incredibly easy contract to move.

Do you think his production the last two years was a fluke? (I don't)
Do you think he peaked at the age of 21? (I don't)

He doesn't have to improve much, to get near a point-per-game pace (61 points each of the last two seasons). I don't think an average season in the range of 75-80 is all that unlikely. Is he a 90 point guys? Probably not, but he's not being paid like a 90 point guy.

They got him under 7 million bucks... you have to assume the cap will continue to increase (at least a little bit). It will be an EASY contract to deal, if they have to do that.

How the roster shakes out for them next year will be interesting. They've got 33.74 million tied up in 7 forwards (Tavares, Nylander, Kadri, Marleau, Brown, Hyman, Gauthier). 11.04 in 4 defense (Reilly, Zaitev, Holl, Dermot) and 5 in their goalie (Anderson) for a total of 49.78 They've also got 1.2 in dead cap, going towards Phil Kessel.

Cap for next year is expected to be 83 million, so that leaves them with 32.02 million to sign 6 forwards, 3 defense, 1 more skater (d or f), and a goalie.

I'd expect Matthews to take 13 of that, and Marner 8.5 (I might be lowballing both of them). That leaves them with 10.52 to resign (or replace) the following:

Forwards: Lindholm, Kapanen, Johnsson, Ennis
Defense: Hainsey, Gardiner, Marincin, Ozhiganov
Goalie: Sparks


I doubt that Kapanen + Gardiner will come in at under 10.5 million.

Someone has to go. Maybe Nylander, maybe Gardiner.... maybe Marleau?
 
30ranfordfan said:
If (or when?) they have to move him, I think it will be an incredibly easy contract to move.

Do you think his production the last two years was a fluke? (I don't)
Do you think he peaked at the age of 21? (I don't)

He doesn't have to improve much, to get near a point-per-game pace (61 points each of the last two seasons). I don't think an average season in the range of 75-80 is all that unlikely. Is he a 90 point guys? Probably not, but he's not being paid like a 90 point guy.

They got him under 7 million bucks... you have to assume the cap will continue to increase (at least a little bit). It will be an EASY contract to deal, if they have to do that.

How the roster shakes out for them next year will be interesting. They've got 33.74 million tied up in 7 forwards (Tavares, Nylander, Kadri, Marleau, Brown, Hyman, Gauthier). 11.04 in 4 defense (Reilly, Zaitev, Holl, Dermot) and 5 in their goalie (Anderson) for a total of 49.78 They've also got 1.2 in dead cap, going towards Phil Kessel.

Cap for next year is expected to be 83 million, so that leaves them with 32.02 million to sign 6 forwards, 3 defense, 1 more skater (d or f), and a goalie.

I'd expect Matthews to take 13 of that, and Marner 8.5 (I might be lowballing both of them). That leaves them with 10.52 to resign (or replace) the following:

Forwards: Lindholm, Kapanen, Johnsson, Ennis
Defense: Hainsey, Gardiner, Marincin, Ozhiganov
Goalie: Sparks


I doubt that Kapanen + Gardiner will come in at under 10.5 million.

Someone has to go. Maybe Nylander, maybe Gardiner.... maybe Marleau?
Click to expand...

I think you're high on Matthews at 13, I see him more at 11.5ish but I see Marner a little higher than you have him at 8.5. Maybe more around 9ish on him.

The way I see it Nylander is a core piece of this team and is not going to be moved because of a cap crunch. If another team makes a crazy offer for him in trade than maybe but it wouldn't just be for cap relief. Marleau is not going anywhere since he has a full no move clause so I think Gardiner is going to be the casualty next season because I don't see the Leafs being able to afford a new contract on him. All the other guys listed beside Kapanen, Sparks, and maybe Johnsson are just fillers.
 
slckrsx said:
I think you're high on Matthews at 13, I see him more at 11.5ish but I see Marner a little higher than you have him at 8.5. Maybe more around 9ish on him.

The way I see it Nylander is a core piece of this team and is not going to be moved because of a cap crunch. If another team makes a crazy offer for him in trade than maybe but it wouldn't just be for cap relief. Marleau is not going anywhere since he has a full no move clause so I think Gardiner is going to be the casualty next season because I don't see the Leafs being able to afford a new contract on him. All the other guys listed beside Kapanen, Sparks, and maybe Johnsson are just fillers.
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I've heard it said a few times: Don't expect Matthews to take a nickel less than McDavid got.... and when you consider that the cap is higher, he could take a bigger dollar figure and get the same percentage of the cap that McDavid got when he signed. That's where I'm pulling 13 from (slightly higher than McDavid's 12.5).

Matthews is a really interesting one. If the Leafs offer 11 (same as Tavares) and asks for 14... it's a gap they will probably close (I'm just making up numbers here too). If they don't have that deal done by July 1st though, could an offer sheet come in? And if it does... and it's for max money... then what?

I know the Leafs are very public about the fact that players will take a little bit less to play on that team... like Shanahan did with the Red Wings. I just don't buy Matthews as someone willing to do that. He didn't opt for a 1m payday in Switzerland at age 17 because his priorities are mixed. I think they're pretty clear.

Marleau's NMC only stop them from trading him (without his permission). If he gets hurt during the offseason (catches a case of Lupulitis), and can't come back... he goes on LTIR, still gets paid, and his cap number is gone.

You're probably right though. Gardiner & Hainsey leave, and are replaced with a couple of < $1m contracts. Then the numbers work.
 
Well at this point say what you will about the contract or the salary cap space the leafs have, they're in a position to win the cup this year for the first time in ages. If they get a cup, none of the above really matters. They're all in this year.
 
Oh, I agree totally. Win a cup this year, and being in cap hell doesn't matter. You did it!

gobuffalo2331 said:
Well at this point say what you will about the contract or the salary cap space the leafs have, they're in a position to win the cup this year for the first time in ages. If they get a cup, none of the above really matters. They're all in this year.
Click to expand...
 
My best guess is Kapanen is as good as gone this season or next. With Willy having no trade protection, they can move him out after this year to make way for some better D. Marleau's 6 mil plus comes off the books in another year as well and Kadri's contract is still tradeable.
 
My thoughts are the leafs are turning into a powerhouse of a team. So why wouldn’t the core of the team try and sign for a little less $$$ to keep that core intact and have the chance to win some cups. I think greed was a factor here and is with a lot of the contracts.
 
Because why should you play hockey, and earn buckets of cash for your owner, and have comparable players (or lesser ones) around the league out-earn you?

Saying that, Tavares did take less (apparently) to play in Toronto. Nylander just signed for a lot less than he was rumored to be asking for.

If you're Auston Matthews, of course you want to win a Stanley Cup.... but a player that good, I hope he's arrogant enough to believe he can win a cup with or without any particular player. Why take less just to win? Take more, and win anyway.

mark14h said:
My thoughts are the leafs are turning into a powerhouse of a team. So why wouldn’t the core of the team try and sign for a little less $$$ to keep that core intact and have the chance to win some cups. I think greed was a factor here and is with a lot of the contracts.
Click to expand...
 
Kadri has one of the best bargain deals in the league. No way they trade him until they're faced with "lose him for nothing" and even then: They may just resign him (with a raise), and move someone else.

Kapanen may have priced himself out of the team for next year too, you're right. I don't see how they bring him & Gardiner back - without unloading another big contract (Nylander, Marleau, or bigger) first.

I heard Glen Healy refer to Nylander's contract as "one of the most tradable contracts ever" and he's probably right:

He signed for 6 years, and 41.4 million total. The final five years of the deal have a cap hit of (exactly) $6,962,366. This year's is much bigger (cap hit) because he's making the same dollars.

The thing is, after July 1st - The Leafs will have already paid him (roughly) 17 million of the 41.4. In real dollars, there will be less than 5 million per season owing to him, for 5 years.

Star player, entering the prime of his career, costs under $5 per year, but helps push a team closer to the floor.

They'll be able to get a LOT for Nylander, if that's the route they take.


sprague11 said:
My best guess is Kapanen is as good as gone this season or next. With Willy having no trade protection, they can move him out after this year to make way for some better D. Marleau's 6 mil plus comes off the books in another year as well and Kadri's contract is still tradeable.
Click to expand...
 
30ranfordfan said:
Because why should you play hockey, and earn buckets of cash for your owner, and have comparable players (or lesser ones) around the league out-earn you?

Saying that, Tavares did take less (apparently) to play in Toronto. Nylander just signed for a lot less than he was rumored to be asking for.

If you're Auston Matthews, of course you want to win a Stanley Cup.... but a player that good, I hope he's arrogant enough to believe he can win a cup with or without any particular player. Why take less just to win? Take more, and win anyway.
Click to expand...

If an offer sheet comes in (I don't think one will happen) than the Leafs will match but Auston has to sign the offer sheet first and I don't think he would.

He's in a good situation right now. Team is setup to be a contender for the foreseeable future, He's the biggest name playing for the biggest team in the NHL, He has endorsement deals coming out of the wazoo. Would he give that up to go home and play for the coyotes for an extra 1 or 2 mil a year in salary?

I have no doubt that even if Autson were to sign for 11 mil a year if you add that and the endorsement money he makes he would be the highest paid player in the league. The Toronto effect.

If Auston stays a Leaf for his entire career and plays at the level he's projected to he has the opportunity to go into history as the greatest player to ever play for the Maple Leafs. I think that means something to him.

In the end I think there is no offer sheet for him or Marner and Dubas gets them in at numbers that allow the Leafs to keep all 4 of them. You peaked my interest with the Marleau on LTIR thought though. Didn't even think of that one.
 
I don't think there will be an offer sheet either. NHL teams are gutless when it comes to that stuff (for the most part). Is Auston Matthews worth 4 first round picks (compensation for more than 10.15 million) ?? Absolutely he is.

Matthews isn't signing for 11 million. I mean, come back here and quote me on this when his new deal is done... I'll be the first to say "I'm wrong" (if I am) but I don't see Tavares being the contract he's going to match. He's not going to accept less than McDavid, and I really believe he'll be in a good spot to ask for a little bit more (13, instead of 12.5).

I have little doubt that a player or opted against junior hockey, in favour of collection a million dollar pay cheque in Switzerland, is going to look to max out his dollars.

Even if there was an offersheet, I don't think the worry would be "do the Leafs match?". Of course they will. They'll match anything that anyone throws at him. The question is - what would that do to their cap?

Assume the Leafs would like him to sign for Tavares money... and he's like to sign for McDavid+: If Arizona offersheeted him, they're not doing it for 13 (two million higher). If there is ANY chance of the Leafs not matching, it would be if the other team went MAX dollars, which would be more like 16 million.

What makes that thread all the more serious.... if teams did want to pick on the Leafs, and paint them into a dark, dark, corner: Offer sheet Matthews at 16, Leafs match it.... and then offer sheet Marner for 10 (OR do it the other way around?)

10 isn't even 4 first round picks anymore. It's only 2 firsts, a 2nd, and 3rd.

If Auston stays a Leaf for his entire career and plays at the level he's projected to he has the opportunity to go into history as the greatest player to ever play for the Maple Leafs. I think that means something to him.
Click to expand...

^^^^
I've seen nothing to suggest he wouldn't like that, but I've seen nothing that suggests that's important to him. If he went to Arizona, and brought a Stanley Cup to the dessert.. while becoming the poster boy for USA hockey: Pretty sure the endorsements would roll in too.


slckrsx said:
If an offer sheet comes in (I don't think one will happen) than the Leafs will match but Auston has to sign the offer sheet first and I don't think he would.

He's in a good situation right now. Team is setup to be a contender for the foreseeable future, He's the biggest name playing for the biggest team in the NHL, He has endorsement deals coming out of the wazoo. Would he give that up to go home and play for the coyotes for an extra 1 or 2 mil a year in salary?

I have no doubt that even if Autson were to sign for 11 mil a year if you add that and the endorsement money he makes he would be the highest paid player in the league. The Toronto effect.

If Auston stays a Leaf for his entire career and plays at the level he's projected to he has the opportunity to go into history as the greatest player to ever play for the Maple Leafs. I think that means something to him.

In the end I think there is no offer sheet for him or Marner and Dubas gets them in at numbers that allow the Leafs to keep all 4 of them. You peaked my interest with the Marleau on LTIR thought though. Didn't even think of that one.
Click to expand...
 

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