Opinions on busting 2015-16 UD1 boxes

[HammerHawks]

Hey guys, when 2015-16 UD1 was first released, I bought 12 boxes of retail with the intention of opening a few and saving the rest as an investment. After a few boxes of the same YGs over and over, I said screw it and went until I hit a McDavid in the 8th box. I have held true to my original intentions about keeping the remaining boxes unopened, but now my curiosity seriously has me wondering if there is another McDavid YG in those four boxes. I hit 3x of some YGs in the first 8 boxes and just the one McDavid.

So, my question to you guys is: If you were me, what would you do? Would you just sit on the boxes and eventually sell them as you fully intended on doing, or would you take the risk thinking the chances are at least decent there is a McDavid? Please don't just say "BUST IT!!!" because it's not you, lol. I genuinely want to know what you guys would do. Of course, the boxes as they are now are worth about $120 US apiece, so roughly $500 together. On the flip side, the McDavid is worth around $225-$250 US right now. My original thought was that the boxes would end up being worth somewhere in the $250-$300 range after 10 years or so, in a similar fashion as 05-06 boxes. But, who knows if that will ever happen.

Let's hear your thoughts!

 

[Burner]

Of course, the boxes as they are now are worth about $120 US apiece, so roughly $500 together. On the flip side, the McDavid is worth around $225-$250 US right now.

I think you answered your own question here. Even if you pull 2 McDavids in those last boxes, you'll end up getting the same cash amount if you sold the boxes off. You're not going to get 2 McDavids or $500 value out of those last boxes.

Sell the boxes.

 

[TMLFan3]

Edmonton is not going anywhere soon. His YG will probably not go much higher without a Stanley Cup. I do not think he will even win the Hart this year.

I say keep sealed.

 

[bto3105]

I wouldn't bust it..... If the Oilers actually do something and win a cup, those boxes will go up fast

 

[thorn]

Open asap.

 

[HammerHawks]

Open asap.

Have rationale for that?

 

[thestreak]

Question: do you need the $? Why are you asking this question now?

Without getting into a whole novel here, if I were you, and I didn't need the cash, I would hang onto the boxes.

 

[HammerHawks]

Question: do you need the $? Why are you asking this question now?

Without getting into a whole novel here, if I were you, and I didn't need the cash, I would hang onto the boxes.

Valid point and question. No, I don't need the money right now. Though, this reminds me of another intriguing point: Suppose I open one box and hit a McDavid. Then I still have three boxes to sell AND got the card. That would obviously be the best possible outcome, but the odds of that obviously aren't as good.

 

[thestreak]

Valid point and question. No, I don't need the money right now. Though, this reminds me of another intriguing point: Suppose I open one box and hit a McDavid. Then I still have three boxes to sell AND got the card. That would obviously be the best possible outcome, but the odds of that obviously aren't as good.

As you said, the chance of that happening are probably slim.

So, if I were you and I didn't need the $, I'd just hang onto them for a number of reasons.

Worst case scenario 10 years goes by and for some reason McDavid turns out to be a flop and the boxes are worth peanuts, you'll probably break them with some friends (or kids or whatever you have going on) and have a heck of a time busting some older boxes and looking at all the young guns from years back.

There's a number of different scenarios and possible outcomes, obviously, but that's probably the worst one, and it doesn't sound that bad.

You've got your McDavid young guns. Chalk that up as a win, put the boxes back in the closet, and forget they're even there.

 

[creasecollector]

Congrats on the McDavid YG!

I'd say hold onto the boxes and sell them when Edmonton makes the playoffs or it looks like they're going to go on a cup run. Those boxes will be worth something then.

 

[Iceman]

Valid point and question. No, I don't need the money right now. Though, this reminds me of another intriguing point: Suppose I open one box and hit a McDavid. Then I still have three boxes to sell AND got the card. That would obviously be the best possible outcome, but the odds of that obviously aren't as good.

Unless you're the person buying the other three boxes who has almost certainly a zero percent chance of a McDavid....

 

[HammerHawks]

Unless you're the person buying the other three boxes who has almost certainly a zero percent chance of a McDavid....

I wouldn’t necessarily say that. That’s likely the case, but I got triples of multiple plays out of eight boxes. Nothing saying two of those boxes couldn’t have the McDavid group like how the other boxes were. Yes, odds aren’t great, but I can at least probably tell you which YGs won’t be in those four boxes, haha.

 

[geschrocks33]

If you don't need the $$$ now I'd say you might as well just hold onto them for awhile longer.

 

[penfield]

would suck if you gave away a mcdavid exclusive or high gloss

 

[HammerHawks]

would suck if you gave away a mcdavid exclusive or high gloss

They are retail boxes, so the only cards of note that can be pulled are the regular McDavid YG and Eichel Canvas YG. No numbered parallels are available in retail.

 

[penfield]

They are retail boxes, so the only cards of note that can be pulled are the regular McDavid YG and Eichel Canvas YG. No numbered parallels are available in retail.

oh nm...i missed the retail part...yeah i'd sit on them...you can still get retail relatively affordable, and you can also pick up a mcd yg for 250-300 pretty easy, so no point opening them

 

[sdpdesign]

The McDavid rc seemed to be pulled more in the retail than the hobby. Everyone who was buying the retail at Walmart was pulling them. I bought a few boxes of hobby and nothing, but that is the risk.

The retail odds of getting one McDavid out of 12 boxes is pretty good considering the price. The flip on the remaining is still good for a bet to make $$. This is also why the hobby boxes are so much and the chance of getting McDavid is basically a case break in that instance. If you’d offer me a chance to buy a box of hobby or retail for the chance of hitting McDavid, I would choose the retail everyday.

Most of the data can be seen from break sites like clouts n chara where a retail will have a much higher pull ratio of McDavid than the hobby. There is a 90% chance of pulling a Forbort YG.

 

[creasecollector]

The McDavid rc seemed to be pulled more in the retail than the hobby. Everyone who was buying the retail at Walmart was pulling them.

Not everyone, sadly...

I went 0/2 with my retail breaks, haha.

 

[HammerHawks]

I think it's really hit or miss...took me eight boxes to get a McDavid, but I got three of Panarin, two Rantanen, like three Subbans...tons of doubles, tons. Which is why I kind of feel like there very well might be another McDavid in the last few boxes. No chance a group of 12 boxes all from the same case would yield 4-5 of some guys and only one of others (right?) haha.

 

[allstarcollectors]

I'm still sitting on my 15-16 S1 case. Hope it goes up and up and up.