Question about a set...08-09 trilogy three star spotlight

# of rookies in the set;
60 LVL 1 * 999 = 59940
15 LVL 2 * 499 = 7485
Total: 67,425

Odds were like... 1 in 3 packs right? 3 times more packs than RC, so that every third pack will have a RC.
Total of 202,275 packs

3 Star Spotlights are 1 in 13 packs. So take the number of packs and divide by 13
~15,559 total copies

40 cards in the set, so ignoring SP, the average print run is 15,559 / 40
Or about 388 copies of each card.

That feels a little high, especially for a high end set... But the FIT are #'ed 799, so its not a bad guess.

Hope this helps.
 
The odds on the three star spotlight were not released either. I don't think they fell anywhere near 1:13 packs. I don't recall even getting one in every other box....

edit - Also I think there were RC hot boxes in Trilogy this year so that throws things off too.. If I were to guess, less than 100 of each
 
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The odds on the three star spotlight were not released either. I don't think they fell anywhere near 1:13 packs. I don't recall even getting one in every other box....

edit - Also I think there were RC hot boxes in Trilogy this year so that throws things off too.. If I were to guess, less than 100 of each

Thanks for pointing that out. I didn't open trilogy heavily this year, i just went by what upper Deck said, and we all know how reliable they are :rolleyes:

To be honest though, a print run of less than 100 each seems low. We may hope for such a low print run, but from UD's point of view, its just not economical. If you look at last year's trilogy, they had 60,000 RC. Which means the #/499 RC in this year's may have been bonus RC for those hot boxes. With the 1:4 seeding of the "Honorary Swatches" last year, the print runs were ~600 for an average jersey piece. That seems likely, especially considering the scope of the project. Not higher than the #/799 Frozen in time inserts, but not so much rarer. That plays out in the market as well since the prices for the two are similar.

For the Three star selections, I would say between 250-350 would be a safe guess. A print run of less than 100 might be appropriate for the SP, but certainly not the regular print runs.
 

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