Question about collecting vintage in today's market

[Fred Bear]

So, I enjoy collecting vintage sets and will be looking to embark on a new project soon. I've been doing my 'research' and familiarizing myself with the set, etc. As I'm doing this, I'm noticing what I feel is an 'odd' phenomena and wanted to see what others think:

Raw cards I'm seeing available from reputable sellers are typically rated in standard grades VG, EXMT, NM, and (NM or better) with the usual qualifiers to check scans, ask questions, etc. PSA 6, 7, and 8s all seem to be readily available. But here's what seems a bit off to me.

'VG' raw sells comparable to low PSA 6, 'EXMT' is in the high PSA 6 to low PSA 7 price range, and 'NM' raw sells near high PSA 7 prices or even more in some cases. PSA 8s seem to outpace raw cards, but raw 'NM or better' often sells well above PSA 7s. I'm well aware that dealer reputation factors in, etc. And that not all PSA 7s are 'equal'. But I am not used to seeing raw cards outpace graded counterparts quite like this. Is it an anomaly or is this part of the new normal?

My goal for this project is to put together a 'high-grade' set. The median graded card for the set is a PSA 7, so my goal would be NM or better. Would you just target graded cards, raw cards to submit and grade, or ungraded raw? For the prices, I'm leaning towards already graded...

Thanks for any opinions and information you can offer!
:beer:

 

[Hector4Hockey]

Hi,

I think bidders are often optimistic on raw cards and that drives auctions up.

I collect bobby orr and realized that if I am going to pay what some of the cards demand I would buy graded or have them graded. With vintage you have to figure the vast majority of cards are "picked over" with the "best" going to the graders. After years of getting cards graded, crossover grading, I think that if your goal is to assemble a set with a particular grade or better, buy what you want (graded).

But... I am one of those collectors that places a lot of emphasis on completeness, so I personally do go after lower grades and later upgrade them.

The only cards I buy raw then grade are cards with low total populations.

 

[Fred Bear]

Hi,

I think bidders are often optimistic on raw cards and that drives auctions up.

I collect bobby orr and realized that if I am going to pay what some of the cards demand I would buy graded or have them graded. With vintage you have to figure the vast majority of cards are "picked over" with the "best" going to the graders. After years of getting cards graded, crossover grading, I think that if your goal is to assemble a set with a particular grade or better, buy what you want (graded).

But... I am one of those collectors that places a lot of emphasis on completeness, so I personally do go after lower grades and later upgrade them.

The only cards I buy raw then grade are cards with low total populations.

Thanks for your insight.

I think this is what I was considering, too, but maybe it's overthinking it... I feel like it's a no-brainer to get an vintage 8 or 9 graded as the premium is so great. Maybe it's just not 'worth' it for some of these guys...

At the end of the day, I really want a set in condition to display it in a binder rather than have a set ranking in the PSA registry. I also don't mind upgrading a card or six at a later time... so, I'll give raw a shot and see how that goes this season.

Thanks again for your thoughts!

 

[Hector4Hockey]

It is nice to have them in pages