Recognizing eBay as the market reference for card prices

[tiger tiger]

Funny how we're all looking for a steady price for what something is worth with something which is always fluctuating.

Beckett doesn't update their prices to reflect current market trends.
Ebay reflects the market trends too closely and there isn't an accurate price.

Prices of boxes go up and down, so why wouldn't we expect the singles to do the same?

There are so many factors that can affect the final sale price of a card. On ice performance, getting traded, player on a crazy hot streak, etc.

Take Jonathan Toews YG for an example. How much was this card selling 5 years ago, 3 years ago, 1 year ago, and now.

What's the card's true market value? $200? $25? $40? 80? 100?

I know that there are collectors that abuse the Beckett (both selling and buying). There are cards that go for full BV, and some that go for 10%). Those are cases when they try to trade you by BV only. Same with ebay for SV stuff.


For the box breakers who are looking to just break even on a bad product or a bad box, I think that's the hobby. You can't hit all the time with your super mojo and there are times you will lose money (and some guys will tell you that you're guaranteed to lose money). If it hurts the wallet too much, then stop busting wax.

The entire hobby has become a speculative market. Whatever is the latest product, is the hottest product. Big box breakers will tell you that you can make money if you're one of the first to sell stuff on ebay. If you're in it to make money (or not lose money), you have only a small window of opportunity. If someone thinks that they can make money on a box a month after a release, you're dreaming (unless you get lucky).

Timing is everything. Some sellers don't know why a Lucic YG card sold twice as much in June as it did in March or in August. Supply and demand. Basic economics. Learn and understand it.

If you trying to get value out of a hockey product that you just busted, be prepared to wait. The season hasn't even started. There are times when some cards are a quick flip, and times when it's a wait and see.

Plus some people don't do enough research on a product. They automatically assume a product is going to do well because the see some "sick" cards on the promos. But they don't look at the checklists.


Buy low, sell high, and very small percentage of cards hold their value long term.

 

[Fred Bear]

At the end of the day, we have to decide what we're willing to buy and sell our cards for and try not to get too angry at others when their perceptions don't match our own.

Mike

Very well said.

Ebay can be used as a 'guide'. Beckett can be used as a 'guide'. It's ultimately up to us, individually, as collectors to determine the actual value, though.

I look at auction pricing and I know if I would pay more or less or about the same amount. I can say the same with BV. What does that say about the price?

It's only a good number, to me, if it's the same amount I would pay for it.

I've bid on a number of auctions where my 'max bid' was 2-3x what I paid. Does that make the card I got 'worth' what I paid or my max bid?

 

[newfiecomicguy1]

Bv vs ebay is basically trade value vs cash sales value which is usually never close. How many items (ungraded) do you see actually sell on ebay or other sites for even close to BV? Then you want to trade and people always want the cards that sell high instead of book high. There are a lot of $100 BV cards that sell for $5 while other $100bv cards sell for $70-80 do they carry the same value? They shouldn't. Its just a strange hobby price wise. As someone here probably already said card value is really what someone is willing to pay for it plain and simple.

 

[timber09]

It's a tool - just like BV is a tool.

We all have different perspetives and there are a hundred and one reasons why a card sells for "X" one minute and sells for "3X" later that same day. There are a lot of variables that go into everything.

I will empathise that there are a number of cards that have a pretty well established sales value - Ovechkin Young Guns comes to mind - and people will, at times, overplay their hand one way or the other with what they think they should be able to sell/buy the card at.

 

[Ferrian1]

The other thing to keep in mind when we quote e-bay sales as the price is who's buying on E-bay. I know a lot of us do, so do stores - and we're not always the end consumer. Anyone that's ever bought something on E-bay to flip should think twice before saying "I can get it cheaper on E-bay", if everyone said that there'd be no value in that flip. That just shows that the market is highly volatile, things slip between the cracks, and generally there is someone willing to pay more in the right setting.

Personally I've noticed two very distinct selling groups form. There's the turn and burn type dealers, breaking and selling fast at market values, never holding inventory for long, moving stuff in lots etc.

Then there's the guys buying those lots, pricing cards "high" and waiting for the right buyer. They've got all the inventory so when you need it they have it, and if you need it you're willing to pay a premium.

Bottom line some are working on high volume low margin, and the others are playing low volume high margin - it all works out in the end. The question is what type of buyer are you - ease of access, trust etc being worth more, or always the bargain hunter. I tread the middle ground, I know I've paid high for a number of cards, if I need them I think it's fair, and there's the nice to have stuff which I only get when it's really cheap.

 

[Fred Bear]

The other thing to keep in mind when we quote e-bay sales as the price is who's buying on E-bay. I know a lot of us do, so do stores - and we're not always the end consumer. Anyone that's ever bought something on E-bay to flip should think twice before saying "I can get it cheaper on E-bay", if everyone said that there'd be no value in that flip. That just shows that the market is highly volatile, things slip between the cracks, and generally there is someone willing to pay more in the right setting.

This is another great point!

I've often referred to eBay as 'wholesale' pricing. It represents the lowest price that someone needed to pay to acquire a card at that moment in time. In fact, most collectors love to tell you about the 'great deals' or the 'steal' they got there. How could it ever be a 'steal' if it's truly the 'market price'?

 

[FuriousD82]

I base my pricing on 1/2 of high book value, which generally translates into ebay Buy In Now sale prices. If the card is a short print, rarely pops up on ebay or has some kind of high end patch, pricing usually gets closer to full book price. I've done a lot of sales with this pricing structure.

 

[habscards]

I will add my two cents here.

I have an eBay store and have about 200 cards listed at all times. Whenever I make a sale on eBay I just use that money that my card sold for to fund my next purchases on eBay. Only exception is that I pay off my eBay fees off with my sales. Only shipping cost will come out of my pocket.

When looking to buy cards I just look at cards that are ending the soonest at auction. You would be surprised at the deals that you can sometime find. Cards will slip through the cracks and sell for good prices that you can turn a profit off of. Now I will say that I never turn a massive profit but just stuff like buy a card for $30 at auction and sell it for $50 with best offer. Great ROI but sometimes I have to sit on the card for a while.

I do have a bit of a head start on most who do that though as I work twelve hour shifts and I do days and nights. When I am on nights you find great deals on cards ending between midnight and six in the morning. Why someone would list an auction to end at those times I am not sure but I will take advantage of it.

My last ten purchases off of eBay are:

Seguin Draft Prospects Nameplate /1 $32
Domi Superlative auto/patch /9 $29
Cheveldae H+P number gold /1 $20
Miller/Briere/Drury SOTT /25 $21
Orr/Bourque/Park SOTT /25 $127
Ovechkin Pinnacle patch /30 $10
Toews/Spezza/Thornton/Doan/Shanahan/Sakic/Yzerman/Trottier Dominion booklet jersey /25 $58
Oates Cup Foundations quad patch /10 $37
Sundin BAP Memorabilia patch /10 $20
Myers UD Black auto/lettermen rc /99 $15

Those have all been since August 28th.



Now I will actually get to my point. I try to do trades and have moderate success. My problem is that when I go to trade say the Orr/Bourque/Park SOTT /25 people can see that I bought it for $127 and they say that is the value. They will not recognize the fact that they sell for closer to $200 most of the time.

A Plekanec UD Exclusives was posted earlier in this thread that sold for $10. I bought an Ovechkin three colour Pinnacle patch /30 for $10. Which card would you rather have? I am as big of a Habs fan as their is but it is a no brainer for me.

Prices are just way too all over the place to have a set price now a days.



I was at a card show once and Heroes and Prospects just came out. A dealer was opening a box and I was watching. He pulled an auto of Tavares. This was back in Tavares draft year. I asked him how much that he wanted for the card and he said that it was not for sale. He said that he had to wait for the Beckett to come out so he can get his price. I remember saying that I would pay him X amount of money for it. I said that price was eBay's going rate and he said that he would wait the month or two. Proof that if some people will just use common sense as opposed to living by a 'book value' that they would make more sales.

One more example then I will stop writing. I was at a card shop once and I bought a box of cards. Another guy was in there and said that he will buy a box of cards and then list everything that he pulls on eBay and sell them at auction starting at $0.99. He then uses that money to fund his next box break. He was saying how it is such a hard hobby because he never makes any money on a box and always has to add in money to buy his next box. I asked him if he ever listed his cards as a Buy it Now with Best Offer. He told me that he has in the past but even though his sales were much higher he had to wait a lot longer for his cards to sell. Proof that selling a card with Best Offer is the best way to go. As a seller you are able to set the value of the card. You will only sell it for the minimum that you were wanting to accept. Sometimes as a seller you get lucky and get an offer higher that you were expecting as well.

So long story short here is that cards that sell at auction usually sell for a decent amount less than as a Buy it Now with Best Offer. When coming up with a value it is so hard to do.

I find when you have a card, you can set your own price. You do not have to go by what a book tells you or by what one sale tells you. If you have a house for sale you do not have to sell it for what a book tells you that you should sell it for. You do not have to sell it for X amount because a house similar to yours sold recently for that amount. It is your house...your price. It is your card...your price. If both sides of a trade are not willing to accept that price then so be it.

 

[holt49]

Ebay is not a Price Guide...Thats it Thats All

 

[RGM81]

Ebay is not a Price Guide...Thats it Thats All

Nobody ever said it was. But it is a reference point for a lot of people. Just one tool in a sea of many.

 

[sdpdesign]

Ebay is not a Price Guide...Thats it Thats All

Well said!

I don't think ebay can be trusted as a guide. It is a collector's game and a seller's roll of the dice. If you have one card that is "valued" at $100 by rarity, or should be valued at that and a seller ends up posting it & getting $120, then they did good & the collector "overspent" but there are plenty stories on here & elsewhere that the "snipe" was good, getting that card for $25 or getting it way under value. As a collector, no one wants to pay full price & everyone wants a good deal. As a seller, they want to make the best sale to make the transaction of acquiring the cards worth it.

 

[Rorschach]

Well said!

I don't think ebay can be trusted as a guide. It is a collector's game and a seller's roll of the dice. If you have one card that is "valued" at $100 by rarity, or should be valued at that and a seller ends up posting it & getting $120, then they did good & the collector "overspent" but there are plenty stories on here & elsewhere that the "snipe" was good, getting that card for $25 or getting it way under value. As a collector, no one wants to pay full price & everyone wants a good deal. As a seller, they want to make the best sale to make the transaction of acquiring the cards worth it.

If that's the case, what would you use as a price guide?

 

[Fred Bear]

Well said!

I don't think ebay can be trusted as a guide. It is a collector's game and a seller's roll of the dice. If you have one card that is "valued" at $100 by rarity, or should be valued at that and a seller ends up posting it & getting $120, then they did good & the collector "overspent" but there are plenty stories on here & elsewhere that the "snipe" was good, getting that card for $25 or getting it way under value. As a collector, no one wants to pay full price & everyone wants a good deal. As a seller, they want to make the best sale to make the transaction of acquiring the cards worth it.

Your example actually illustrates why eBay is a good 'guide' and nothing more - identical to 'book'. The card in your example sells between a low of $25 and a high of $120. No different that 'book' providing a low value of $60 and a high of $150. It's a range. The collector or those involved with an actual trade/sale need to determine the actual 'values' for themselves. I don't disagree that some eBay values have to be taken with a grain of salt, there are shills, mistakes, etc. The same can be said of 'book', though, I know I have several cards which 'book' has either severely under- or over-valued based on what collectors will pay...

And, yes, sellers want to sell high and buyers want to buy low. My personal experience is that collectors want to and are willing to pay 'fair'. It is nice to get a deal, but if that's your expectation - are you collecting or trying to run a business? Don't get me wrong, some people's hobby is to flip cards rather than collect them. I don't see the problem with that.

 

[Rorschach]

Your example actually illustrates why eBay is a good 'guide' and nothing more - identical to 'book'. The card in your example sells between a low of $25 and a high of $120. No different that 'book' providing a low value of $60 and a high of $150. It's a range. The collector or those involved with an actual trade/sale need to determine the actual 'values' for themselves. I don't disagree that some eBay values have to be taken with a grain of salt, there are shills, mistakes, etc. The same can be said of 'book', though, I know I have several cards which 'book' has either severely under- or over-valued based on what collectors will pay...

And, yes, sellers want to sell high and buyers want to buy low. My personal experience is that collectors want to and are willing to pay 'fair'. It is nice to get a deal, but if that's your expectation - are you collecting or trying to run a business? Don't get me wrong, some people's hobby is to flip cards rather than collect them. I don't see the problem with that.

I agree with you and in fact, eBay bases it's prices on some sort of reality and it's constantly changing moment to moment where as Beckett is based on old, old numbers, a limited sample, often times fantasy and whatever.

eBay is suitable as a guide often and is somewhat accurate at times, whereas Beckett is a wide open guide and isn't updated often...or sometimes not at all.

eBay is like shooting at a barn wall from 100 feet away. Beckett is like shooting at a small moving target.