Series 1 Odds misrepresented?

A

adamslogik

No Trade Group till June 14
Joined
Oct 22, 2010
Messages
436
Reaction score
0
Location
Brockville, ON
Does anyone else think that the odds on these were GROSSLY miscalculated and misrepresented?

1:720 odds on the lord stanleys heroes (1 in every 2.5 cases)
1:2880 on the lord stanleys Futures (1 in 10 cases)


I have seen a TON of these pulled. Guys buying 4 or 5 boxes and hitting 2 stanley cup heroes.


I feel like the same might be true of the Shining stars rainbows
1:1440 packs (1 in every 5 cases)

I kind of feels to me like the odds may have been misprinted with an extra zero on the end which would put them at:

Lord stanleys heroes 1:72 packs (4 per case)
Lord stanleys futures 1:288 (1 per case)
Shining stars rainbow 1:144 (2 per case)

I don't know if this is the case, but it would be alot more accurate to what I have seen in people's breaks.

Can anyone who has opened cases of this stuff let me know what you think?

Does anyone know anyone over at UD who can confirm that the odds are accurate, because they really don't seem that way.
 
You have to realize a ton of this product has been busted this week. Opened a case and had one Shining Stars Rainbow, and zero Lord Stanley's Heroes.

Derek
 
Maybe I'm just seeing it wrong, or the product was heavily front loaded.

It just seems like I've seen about 2 dozen of those lord stanleys heroes/futures and by this time last year I had maybe seen 4 or 5 Day with the cups, and they are much more common supposedly.

I saw a post where a guy broke 5 boxes from the same case, hit 2 lord stanley's heroes and a rainbow shining stars.
 
Busted 1 and Opened half/Watched half of another. 1 Rainbow Center in Each, only 1 Lord Stanleys Heroes. My full case had no auto, no clear cut, only 4 Canvas YG's and 3 Exclusives, so someone must have gotten a few loaded boxes, that's for sure.
 
adamslogik said:
Does anyone else think that the odds on these were GROSSLY miscalculated and misrepresented?

1:720 odds on the lord stanleys heroes (1 in every 2.5 cases)
1:2880 on the lord stanleys Futures (1 in 10 cases)


I have seen a TON of these pulled. Guys buying 4 or 5 boxes and hitting 2 stanley cup heroes.


I feel like the same might be true of the Shining stars rainbows
1:1440 packs (1 in every 5 cases)

I kind of feels to me like the odds may have been misprinted with an extra zero on the end which would put them at:

Lord stanleys heroes 1:72 packs (4 per case)
Lord stanleys futures 1:288 (1 per case)
Shining stars rainbow 1:144 (2 per case)

I don't know if this is the case, but it would be alot more accurate to what I have seen in people's breaks.

Can anyone who has opened cases of this stuff let me know what you think?

Does anyone know anyone over at UD who can confirm that the odds are accurate, because they really don't seem that way.
Click to expand...

I am pretty sure their team of lawyers would gladly confirm these odds are in fact true, and I am pretty sure they are prepared to argue that fact should anyone decide to challenge it. :corn:

You are not taking into consideration that these first wave cases could have extra stuff in them for a reason? I mean, if I was selling a product like this, I would want everyone to see the great value that this is giving to the collectors right out of the gate. People tend to by more stuff when the perceived value is high with loaded cases. I am not saying this is the case here (no pun intended), but I would not rule out this scenario either. Create a buzz, and reap in the rewards.

There may be a later wave of cases that has very little of these rare inserts in them, or none at all? In the end, it is all about average over the entire print run. Just ask them, and they will tell you exactly that. :devil:
 
Last edited:
i saw some case breaks where mostly the odds are pretty dead on

I did hit 7 different case hits in 5 boxes

with 1 box had a clearcut leaders /10, a Group A jersey and a Heroes painting card
 
I bought one box from the 10th case that my LCS had, I hit a Taylor Hall Rainbow and the owner told me the only other Rainbow he knew of from the other 9 cases was a Chris Stewart.............
 
adamslogik said:
Maybe I'm just seeing it wrong, or the product was heavily front loaded.

It just seems like I've seen about 2 dozen of those lord stanleys heroes/futures and by this time last year I had maybe seen 4 or 5 Day with the cups, and they are much more common supposedly.

I saw a post where a guy broke 5 boxes from the same case, hit 2 lord stanley's heroes and a rainbow shining stars.
Click to expand...

About this, last year's rookie crop was absolutely terrible, and the product definitely wasn't as heavily broken as this year. I opened a case and pulled a Shining Stars Rainbow, but didn't pull a Stanley Cup Heroes/Futures. I'm confident that the odds are reliable; the product is just wayyyyy more popular this year and is more heavily opened than last year's edition.
 
The Mandi Schwartz jersey is supposedly an easy pull (Group F I believe) yet I still haven't seen a single copy. Has anyone seen one to confirm it exists?
 
"Stated odds reflect the entire print run and not individual boxes or cases".

Which, if they so chose, liberates UD to front load the product and still be honouring the stated odds.
 
FrozenInferno said:
The Mandi Schwartz jersey is supposedly an easy pull (Group F I believe) yet I still haven't seen a single copy. Has anyone seen one to confirm it exists?
Click to expand...

I haven't seen one, but keep in mind, being in a certain group doesn't mean anything. It can simply mean whatever number of them they made, they used in a group of cards to ensure certain odds. It doesn't mean that every card in the sub group has the same scarcity.

Say I was packing 10,000 boxes, and I wanted one jersey per box. I need 10,000 jerseys to make the odds. I could use 10 different guys at 990 cards each and one guy at 100 cards and come up with 10,000 cards, call them all Group F (seeded to fall one per box) and I haven't misrepresented anything. Or what if Group A only has one player in it and 1000 of his cards (seeded to fall 1:10 boxes) and group B has 5 players in it, but only 200 cards each (seeded to fall 1:10 boxes) and group c has 50 players in it with 160 cards each (seeded to fall 4:5 boxes)... which is more rare? You'll get 8 group C in your 10 boxes, but each individual is more rare.

Without knowing the actual production numbers of any given card, you can't be certain of the scarcity.

Cory
 
my 3 cases:
1 Lord Stanley Heroes
1 Lord Stanley Furtures ( Galchenyuk)
3 Shining Stars Rainbows (Galchenyuk and Crosby
1 UD Jersey Group A (Gretz)
3 Autos
2 High Gloss with 1 being YG
1 300 Win Group A
2 Clear Cut Stoppers
1 Clear Cut Foundations
2 YG Exclusives
3 Sets of YG's and an extra of each big one
1 HH Header
1 HH Paint

All in all i would say i was on par with the odds > although i would liked to hit
A day with the Cup , HH Auto, Patch/15

Over all im happy with what i got but its always free to dream about a huge hit :)
 

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
390,210
Messages
2,239,363
Members
4,172
Latest member
Singin
Back
Top