Sitting on Unopened Wax as an Alternative Investment

GAZZA

GAZZA

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Hey Guys,


I am really into stock market investing. I have been investing since 2008. I have done pretty well since the big crash. It brings me to my question: Does sitting on unopened wax make any sense at all as an alternative form of investing? What sort of time frame makes sense?


As an example, if I bought a case of 03-04 UD S1 and S2, would I be better off 10 years later? Or would I have lost money?


I am really looking forward to hearing your responses.
 
I would say most of the boxes drop in value over the years. Some maintain the same price and very few go up. If you look at 05-06 UD S1 it went up but S2 crashed because it ended up getting over produced cause so many people were going to try and do exactly what you are talking about. You can get all of the S2 rcs for 5-10 bucks each easily other then Ovechkin. Also have to be careful with products that have redemptions cause if they expire the value of the boxes could go down because of it.

03-04 probably has dropped $10 a box, I could be wrong. I do remember picking up some for cheap a few years ago.
 
IMO - It really depends on what wax you're talking about.

Upper Deck Series 1/2, I would think in the last 10 years.... the only sets that would be worth more now 'unopened' would be 05/06 & 02/03 (Series 1 for each, Series 2 in each to a much lesser extend).

I know I've seen boxes of those two years being sold for very high prices, where other years (when I've noticed) seem to be pretty reasonably priced ($65 or less) but I am far from an expert, so what I say may not be totally correct.


The problem is the current market. Rookies are what makes a product huge. The only two years were there is actually a big YG that will easily go over $100, is 05-06 (Crosby) and 02-03 (Nash, Zetterberg) and both of those years also have a lots of $30+ cards to go with them (05-06 not as many. 02-03 has a ton of SSPs). Not enough people hunting for a MAF Young Gun, or Eric Stall YG (IMO) to make that case all that valuable.
 
It seems that UD Series 1 is almost always a "Safe" investment. Just looking at DA Card World, it seems that all the Upper Deck Series 1 stuff has either gone up or dried up in the last ten years

2012-13 - $565.00 (Probably the best investment still on the board)
2011-12 - $89.95 no case available
2010-11 - $no box or case available
2009-10 - $69.95 a box no case available
2008-09 - $840.00 a case
2007-08 - $89.95 a box no case available
2006-07 - $82.95 a box no case available
2005-06 - $329. a box no case available
2004-05 - $802.95 (This was an even worse year than 2012-13 Series 1)
2003-04 - $Not Available

I would venture the guess that the return on an 2003-04 Upper Deck series one case wouldn't match what spending the same amount on Google back in 2003 would have netted you, but still a "profit" none the less.

I think if you were going to do this, I would purchase a few cases of 2012-13 Upper Deck for a few reasons.

#1 - the price is below dealer costs
#2 - unlike 2004-05 UD Series 1 the young gun class is actually decent.
#3 - The product is loaded...just look at all the case breaks in these forums to see what I mean

If it was up to me I would still purchase Google stock, or wait until Gold comes down a bit more and jump on it then. We are always right around the corner from another stock market crash.
 
Like Mack mentioned, I think that redemptions are one of the biggest factors to consider.

Take 13-14 Trilogy for example. Some of the top rookies have redemptions in this product, so what happens to its value in 2 years when they expire? No one is going to pay top dollar for a box of cards that may yield a RC of a top player that they'll never receive. I'm still surprised when I see someone doing a box break of a product that has expired redemptions. Not only are you gambling on hitting a big card, but you're also gambling on the fact that the big card will be live. Not worth it, in my opinion.

With this in mind, I would think that the best bet would be a product, like Series One, that doesn't have redemptions to worry about.

Having said that, I would never consider collecting trading cards an investment. I collect for the enjoyment of the hobby and the thrill of the chase, not to hit it big.

But hey, if you've got the money, why not?
 
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Pass on 2009/10 UD1, was that the year of the rooler marks?
If I was investing in cases, I would simply go BIG - The Cup.
 
Shorter term holds (3-5 years) versus longer term holds (10+ years) I would imagine show a better return. Just a hunch and something I've considered myself.
 
Maple Leaf Sports said:
Don't waste your money - stick to the market.
Click to expand...

+1

I find it hard to think of anything to do with cards an investment. You never know when the bubble is going to burst and people are no longer going to want them.

It is similar to some vintage video games, what is going to happen when all of the people who grew up with a NES are not collecting anymore?
 
holding on to a box or a case for 10 years, even if it goes up isn't worth it. You're in the stock market, you should know about opportunity costs.

Unless cases go up like 1000% over that time, then you're wasting your time.
 
You also need to factor in your inflation cost.
What kind of investing do you do? For the past few months i have started a new career as a full time day trader.
 
I echo what a lot of folks have said - redemption heavy products will suffer once they expire. I always look at 2004-05 SP Authentic as a good example.

The product had some really good buyback possibilities since there was no autographed rookie class, however, so many of them were redemptions. I watched the product literally go from $230 a box to $130 a box almost overnight. There are still some really good live cards you can pull I'm sure. But the fact of the matter is it's just not worth touching because you could realistically end up with nothing but redemptions.

Everything else has already been said though - The rookie crop and scarcity of those pulls normally dictate resale value.
 
djsports said:
It seems that UD Series 1 is almost always a "Safe" investment. Just looking at DA Card World, it seems that all the Upper Deck Series 1 stuff has either gone up or dried up in the last ten years

2012-13 - $565.00 (Probably the best investment still on the board)
2011-12 - $89.95 no case available
2010-11 - $no box or case available
2009-10 - $69.95 a box no case available
2008-09 - $840.00 a case
2007-08 - $89.95 a box no case available
2006-07 - $82.95 a box no case available
2005-06 - $329. a box no case available
2004-05 - $802.95 (This was an even worse year than 2012-13 Series 1)
2003-04 - $Not Available

I would venture the guess that the return on an 2003-04 Upper Deck series one case wouldn't match what spending the same amount on Google back in 2003 would have netted you, but still a "profit" none the less.

I think if you were going to do this, I would purchase a few cases of 2012-13 Upper Deck for a few reasons.

#1 - the price is below dealer costs
#2 - unlike 2004-05 UD Series 1 the young gun class is actually decent.
#3 - The product is loaded...just look at all the case breaks in these forums to see what I mean

If it was up to me I would still purchase Google stock, or wait until Gold comes down a bit more and jump on it then. We are always right around the corner from another stock market crash.
Click to expand...

I think this year UD 1 will have a good potential.

Personnally, I get my box on a pre-order, because I expect the price to jump after.
 
It can be done but only with certain products and the rookie crop driving them. Off the top of my head 05/06 and 07/08 are the years where demand peaks most. Also, you could put away specialty products like UD Montreal Canadians Centenial Hobby. However my theory works with all sports.

On the baseball side I would only suggest bowman chrome. Basketball and football exquisite.

Holding back sports product for a while can be done but its a hassle. You are better off buying Magic the Gathering cases and sitting on them.
 
Very interesting answers, guys. I am learning a lot.



bruinsman said:
You also need to factor in your inflation cost.
What kind of investing do you do? For the past few months i have started a new career as a full time day trader.
Click to expand...

I have 2 ideas/portfolios. I have a dividend growth portfolio. I focus only on the rate of change in the growth of the dividend; it doesn't matter what the initial yield is. The second is an ETF portfolio. Both are hold for the long run strategies, I never day trade. I don't have the stones.
 
I always think of Grizzly Sports Cards at times like these. They have an amazing selection of old stuff.... I stand and stare at there selection each and exert Expo. But, like others, it is so far priced out of my range that there it sits, Expo after Expo.
Sure, you can hold on to product until it is so scarce that it earns a premium, but you still have to sell it....
 

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