Some THE CUP stats- number crunching time with Dave

[dburzyn]

well, im a bit bored and am going to be getting a tin of THE CUP so i thought i would work with some numbers and figure a couple things out

First off 81 Rookie Auto Patches, 78 levels 2s are /199 and 3 level 1s /99 (phaneuf, ovy, sid)

1 of these auto Patch Rcs will be in every Tin of the Cup

(78 x 199) + (3 x 99)= The total amount of Boxes Produced

= 15, 819 BOXES Made
15, 819 / 6= about 2, 636 CASES

Now with there being only 297 TOTAL Level 1 Auto/ Patch/ Rcs
You have a...

297 / 15, 819 x 100= % chance of pulling a phaneuf, crosby, ovechkin

= about 1.88 % chance of pulling a crosby, ovechkin, phaneuf

That means that there will be almost 1 level 1 auto/patch/rc PER 8 CASES!!! (about 50 TINS)!!!

Buying these 50 TINS would cost you $17, 500!! And thats at the SRP of $350

TOTAL Amount of money UPPER DECK will be making off us if its a SELLOUT?

15, 819 x 350= $5, 536, 650!!

Who cares about customer service when you are getting $5.5 MIL to the ol' bank account? Not UD


Good Luck to Everyone who is also busting this stuff... hopefully we can hit that 1.88%!

Thanks,

Dave

(now i am no mathematician, so there might be an error somehwere)

 

[jaywings19]

I think there are also Rookie Patch Auto parallels numbered to the player's jersey number. Who knows if those would be counted in addition to your 15,819 regular Rookie Patch Autos. If so, then there could easily be 3,000 cases made.

And just think that these will (probably) be photoshoot patches, so Upper Deck would save a ton of money by not inserting actual game used patches.

 

[dburzyn]

oh boy... i hope theyre not photoshoot patches.... with the kind of money they want us to plop down on that product, and the entire season being played, i hope theyre actual game worn... but alas, most likely they will be the photoshoots we've seen all season

 

[brisco10]

Why did I think there was 2500 cases produced?
Plus I thought I heard there was only three tins per case.

Any help???
Thanks
Ken

 

[will-411]

Ken, I believe there are 3 box and 6 box cases. Go by the box numbers for total production though.

And it should work out close to a 1/1 in every 6 box case as well.

I hope the tins are really nice, cause when you're done opening it and crying over your cards, it'll probably be the only thing with any resale value...

Cory

Edit:

There's no way UD is making $350 per tin either. That's the SRP and would leave no mark up for wholesalers. I wouldn't be surprised if it's in the $225 range for UD.

 

[Hama]

I think it's clear that ALL card companies make their biggest margins on the very high end stuff. I'm likely taking a pass - although it may be preferable to take one tin of this vs. a box of Ultimate

 

[odjickfan]

I think it's clear that ALL card companies make their biggest margins on the very high end stuff. I'm likely taking a pass - although it may be preferable to take one tin of this vs. a box of Ultimate

Depending on which Ultimate you're talking about

 

[winniescards]

Does anyone know how big the base set is.I thought it was 100 cards.If so than with there being one of these per tin and having them #xxx/249 than wouldn't that make it 4150 of the 6 tin cases.But I am not sure that there is 100 cards in the base set.If this is the case than the odds of pulling any of the 3 patches goes to about 1 in 83.6 tins or 1 in in every 14 cases of 6 tins.
But it all depends on how many base cards are in the set.Upper deck has said 1 base card per tin and that they will be #xxx/249.Good luck to everyone that will be busting this product.I am doing 2 cases of 6 tins.Not sure yet weather I will open it or wait a few weeks and simply resell it.But I know it will be hard to have it in the house not opened.Thanks,Winston.