Stamkos Contract Negotiations

[newfiecomicguy1]

I think stamkos will want to play where he thinks he has the best chance to win. If not Tampa than St Louis might be a good option. Salary cap certainly limits the options. I would love to see him on my Leafs but not at the asking price. The Leafs need a lot of help, tying up all that money on a rebuilding team don't make sense. They need a first line centre a goalie as well as 1-2 solid D. I keep looking at the Hawkes, sure they have Kane to put up points, Toews all around game but IMO even more important to winning those cups were Keith and Seabrook. For the Leafs to sign Stamkos to a 8 year $10 million deal would be a huge mistake.

 

[30ranfordfan]

I don't buy into the idea, even for a second, that he'll take less money because of tax savings. Any player of his caliber is going to want the max money he can get.... it's about the principle of being a top paid player, rather than the actual take home.

Besides - A lot can happen over the course of a 7 or 8 year contract. He can have the no-trade or no move clause.... but that doesn't mean he's going to to play out that entire contract in the city he signed it.

Winning (or supposed change of winning) is huge - but because of the money he's going to command, it's not like he can just go sign with the Kings or Blackhawks (I use them for obvious reasons: recent success) and fit easily into their Cap. The big thing (IMO) is sitting down with a team, and believing that the brass has the right plan to build a winner around him.... even if that isn't necessarily in 2016-17. Competitive team right way, Championship sooner rather than later.

Stamkos, or any player of that ilk, should be arrogant enough (I mean that in a good way) to think that any team he signs with will become a contender.

I don't believe that the Leafs will be an attraction for him..... it's a team with little history to suggest that winning is something they're going to do (you can add all the 50 million dollar coaches & GMs to that organization you want.... IMO they are still years away from any top tier players actually taking them seriously) but I also think if he was going to stay in Tampa, he'd have done it already.


Stamkos is going to hit the open market, and he's going to cash in for 10+ million per year.

 

[newfiecomicguy1]

No doubt he wants to win but this is his "big" contract. This is what he worked towards all his life this contract. If he already won a few cups or was signing somewhere like Chicago for a last chance at a cup I could see him taking less. He is going for the money, no doubt in my mind.

 

[Leafsfan1967]

Ok...just for fun, let's look at the Leaf's situation if they are successful in signing Stamkos, which implies that Leafs want to contend for a cup within a few years. So money will be spent going after UFA players to complement Stamkos.

Stamkos will demand $11M/yr for 7 years.

Rielly is a RFA. Bridge contract. $3M for 2 years so he can get arbitration rights. If Leafs believe he is the real deal, then 6 year deal @ $5.5M to get 2 years of UFA.

Kadri gets a raise to $5M/yr for a few years. If you believe Reimer is the #1, then you'll have to re-sign him at $4.5M, and move Bernier to free up some cash. Not a lot of great UFA goalies options.

That would be 16 players with a cap total of $55M, leaving $19M to acquire players.

Stamkos, ?, ?
Bozak, Lupul, Kadri,
Komarov, Winnik, ?
Leivo, Holland, ?
?

Phaneuf, Rielly
Gardiner, ?
Hunwick, Marincin
Corrado

Reimer
Sparks

Two top line forwards to play with Stamkos will cost no less than $10M. The remaining bottom 6 players will cost $4M. A top 4 dman will be about $4.5M, leaving $500k in cap. Not going to turn Marner, Kapanen, Nylander, or this year's top pick into grinders on the bottom 6.

Phaneuf has a NTC and costs $7M/year until 2021. Lupul and Bozak have NMC and have 2 more years left on their contracts. These 3 aren't even close to being considered good deals for their cap hits.

So let's assume there's $15M to be spent on 2 top line forwards and 1 top 4 d.

IMO, Byfuglien is going to be asking for $6M/year.

For forwards, there Ladd, who is making $4.4M this year, so let's say $5.5M. Then that only leaves $3.5M for a top line RW??

Or, give Okposo and Ladd, $10.5M/yr combined. $4.5M/yr might get you Hamhuis type d.

Let's say that all works out. Does anyone really believe that that team is a cup contender? Fast forward 3 more years, and how does the team look then?

So will Stamkos take less net money for a lesser chance at winning a cup? Does he want the crushing pressure from the T.O. media every night?

I can see the Leafs being interested in Stamkos, but I'm not so sure if the asking price is $11M/yr. Even less so if they win the Matthews sweepstakes.

Realistically, the only team that I can see that has a legit chance of signing Stamkos, is Florida. Net tax savings the same, not many huge long term contracts, not many NTC/NMC contracts, and lots of cap space free up this coming year. But does Florida want to spend that kind of money on a player given their gate draw absolutely sucks. A lot of team have internal caps. It is a business in the end for these owners, and they're looking for the maximum profit.

Now back to Tampa if Stamkos walks, they'll have $11M of cap to sign Byfuglien and Backes. The triplets become the top line. Backes provides grit, 2 way play, and Byfuglien give them size, intimidation, and a shot from the back end. Trade Drouin or 1st round pick at the 2017 trade deadline for a UFA rental (Alex Steen?). You wouldn't have to unload Filppula's contract (and let it naturally run out), but maybe unload Garrison's (since you have Buff), to re-sign Hedman.

Most all of those players, or all will not be here in 3 years, so you really can't worry about the salaries of Phaneuf, Bozak, Lupul, Bozak, Winnik, Komarov, Polak, Bernier, Reimer, and maybe more. Heck, some of these guys will be gone in a month from now. They have a bunch of young talented prospects waiting in the AHL to fill most of those roster spots, plus whatever they get in the draft this summer from their picks, and probably some others gathered at the trade deadline. Reilly is probably a lock to stay, and get paid good, and he should be.

I'd love Stamkos to come to Toronto, but I'm smart enough to realize that if he does, by the time this team has any hope of competing for anything, he will be on the downside of his career, so is it a waste to actually bring him in now? Probably so. Had the Leafs started the rebuild a few years ago like they were suppose to do, then the timing to bring a guy like him in would be perfect. He's having a so-so year by his standards, so one has to wonder if he's already on the downside, or are there other issues there?

Wherever he goes, or if he stays, he's gonna get paid big. He may be the highest paid next year. I know some suggest he may not deserve it, but that is how things work in the NHL with the cap rising each year. When other star players come due for a raise, they will leapfrog back over Stamkos etc.

After thinking about it alot, I honestly don't want him in Toronto now. It isn't the right time. If it happens, I won't be upset, but I'd rather them stick to the plan, and so far they seem to be doing the right moves. If they start having success with all this young talent, then they can always look to add a star players at that point. Maybe they already have one on the Marlies? Maybe they'll get Mathews, or another top kid?

 

[Leafsfan1967]

I don't buy into the idea, even for a second, that he'll take less money because of tax savings. Any player of his caliber is going to want the max money he can get.... it's about the principle of being a top paid player, rather than the actual take home.

Besides - A lot can happen over the course of a 7 or 8 year contract. He can have the no-trade or no move clause.... but that doesn't mean he's going to to play out that entire contract in the city he signed it.

Winning (or supposed change of winning) is huge - but because of the money he's going to command, it's not like he can just go sign with the Kings or Blackhawks (I use them for obvious reasons: recent success) and fit easily into their Cap. The big thing (IMO) is sitting down with a team, and believing that the brass has the right plan to build a winner around him.... even if that isn't necessarily in 2016-17. Competitive team right way, Championship sooner rather than later.

Stamkos, or any player of that ilk, should be arrogant enough (I mean that in a good way) to think that any team he signs with will become a contender.

I don't believe that the Leafs will be an attraction for him..... it's a team with little history to suggest that winning is something they're going to do (you can add all the 50 million dollar coaches & GMs to that organization you want.... IMO they are still years away from any top tier players actually taking them seriously) but I also think if he was going to stay in Tampa, he'd have done it already.


Stamkos is going to hit the open market, and he's going to cash in for 10+ million per year.

That is my thinking, as well.

 

[Leafsfan1967]

Troy, I'd recommend that you read the article somebody linked above regarding the taxation benefits Stamkos would get and how that cuts into the raw numbers. I had never looked at things that way and it gave me a whole new perspective on why the contract offered is pretty reasonable after all.

I know, I read, and understand it, I just don't feel it is the most important part of his thought process. I may be wrong, but these guys all have huge egos, so does Don Meehan. Being paid the highest salary may mean more to their ego than the actual take home pay. Maybe not, we'll see. It's all about where he wants to play, and if he can get enough money playing there.

 

[tiger tiger]

This is where something has to give. Max money vs chance at the Cup.

I don't see any team right now who can satisfy both requirements, besides Tampa and maybe Florida (given their recent success, but few may consider them a contender).

Any contending team would have to unload another big contract or two to fit an $11M contract. There are several teams with major contracts with NTC's.

I'll look at the Blues now too.

Tarasenko, Stastny, Steen, Pietrangelo, JBO have NTC's, and have a combined cap hit of a little less than $32.2M. Schwartz is a RFA and I'll pencil in $1.5m raise.

That's 16 players @ $54M. Add Stamkos @ $11M, so 17 players with $65M, leaving $9M for 5-6 players. Key losses to UFA could be Backes, Brouwer, and Gunnerson. 3 spots in bottom 3, could cost $3M, leaving $6M to sign a 2nd pairing and 3rd pairing d, which would get really tight. The 3rd pairing d could end up as a rookie or some AHL level dman.

Stamkos, Tarasenko, Steen
Stastny, Fabbri, Schwartz
Lehtera, Berlund, ?
Jaskins, Reaves, ?
?

JBo, Pietrangelo
Shattenkirk, ?
Parayko, ?
Bortuzzo

Elliott, Allen.

Looks generally ok, but the following year, Shattenkirk is a UFA. Allen is a RFA. Basically, you can give Allen $4.85M by letting Elliott walk, and then signing a back up for $1M. Parayko and Jaskins are also RFA's. So if the cap goes up to $77M, there's an extra $3M (-$1M for a back up, so $1M raise to Parayko and Jaskins so they can get arbitration rights in a couple years), but then you let Shattenkirk walk for nothing, leaving a hole back in the top 4 d.

On top of all that, the Blues look like they would lose a lot of grit and toughness with the loss of Backes and Brouwer. There's no more money to sign these type of players.

If the Blues lock up Shattenkirk long term, say at $6.5M/yr, then there's only $4M for a #4 AND a 3rd pairing dman.

2 years from now, Steen would be a UFA too, so if he wants a raise, you have to let him walk. It would leave $5.8M to try to sign a #1LW. I'm not so sure if it'll be a downgrade. Berglund would be a UFA too, but that money could be eaten up to re-sign Jaskins and Parayko to longer term deals.

On top of all that, Hitchcock is the coach. He's all about defensive responsibility, and may use (or not use) Stamkos in the same situations Cooper has done.

The Blues would be a contender, but would they be more of a contender than they are now? Could the money be used better? $11M can fill a couple of huge holes. Backes could be re-signed, Byfuglien could be added, Shattenkirk extended.

 

[tiger tiger]

Stamkos is going to hit the open market, and he's going to cash in for 10+ million per year.

I think Stamkos lose out on getting a 8 year deal even if he signs back with Tampa after July 1. This is the risk he takes for testing out the open market.

I'd love Stamkos to come to Toronto, but I'm smart enough to realize that if he does, by the time this team has any hope of competing for anything, he will be on the downside of his career, so is it a waste to actually bring him in now? Probably so. Had the Leafs started the rebuild a few years ago like they were suppose to do, then the timing to bring a guy like him in would be perfect. He's having a so-so year by his standards, so one has to wonder if he's already on the downside, or are there other issues there?

Wherever he goes, or if he stays, he's gonna get paid big. He may be the highest paid next year. I know some suggest he may not deserve it, but that is how things work in the NHL with the cap rising each year. When other star players come due for a raise, they will leapfrog back over Stamkos etc.

After thinking about it alot, I honestly don't want him in Toronto now. It isn't the right time. If it happens, I won't be upset, but I'd rather them stick to the plan, and so far they seem to be doing the right moves. If they start having success with all this young talent, then they can always look to add a star players at that point. Maybe they already have one on the Marlies? Maybe they'll get Mathews, or another top kid?

I totally agree with these points.

 

[tiger tiger]

I know, I read, and understand it, I just don't feel it is the most important part of his thought process. I may be wrong, but these guys all have huge egos, so does Don Meehan. Being paid the highest salary may mean more to their ego than the actual take home pay. Maybe not, we'll see. It's all about where he wants to play, and if he can get enough money playing there.

If this is the case, then it's better for Tampa to walk away from Stamkos. As crazy as it sounds, the team will be better off long term.

Plus Tampa isn't so desperate for Stamkos' services because they have drafted and developed players well. The Triplets line outperformed Stamkos' line in last year's playoffs.

Kings were in a different situation. They couldn't replace Kopitar if he walked.

But as I said before, the $8.5M/yr offer was to gauge if it's about net money or "ego". It gives some clarity to the direction of the negotiations.

 

[Leafsfan1967]

If this is the case, then it's better for Tampa to walk away from Stamkos. As crazy as it sounds, the team will be better off long term.

Plus Tampa isn't so desperate for Stamkos' services because they have drafted and developed players well. The Triplets line outperformed Stamkos' line in last year's playoffs.

Kings were in a different situation. They couldn't replace Kopitar if he walked.

But as I said before, the $8.5M/yr offer was to gauge if it's about net money or "ego". It gives some clarity to the direction of the negotiations.

Not sure about ego with Stammer, but definitely with his agent, lol. When it is all done, I'd love to find out if there were issues between him, and the coach, but most likely we'll never know, as it would stay buried in the locker room, and rightfully so it should. Just odd he is having a bit of an off year in a contract year, but then again, he has picked it up of late. It is also possible that maybe he was playing injured earlier in the year? Lots of maybe's, lol?

 

[newfiecomicguy1]

I don't see the current Leaf management group signing Stamkos to a big deal. They gave been preaching a true rebuild and pain lol. I'm sure he will still get a lot of interest. I wonder if Tampa will trade him or risk signing him this summer with a risk of losing him.

 

[tiger tiger]

I heard that there were issues with where Cooper wanted to play Stamkos. Cooper thought he makes a better winger than a C, which is probably true. Most coaches probably would like a puck distributor for a C, instead of a shooter. There were further rumours that Coach Babcock felt the same, possibly during the Olympics.

So the slow down in points could be the learning curve for Stamkos in becoming more of a puck distributor than a shooter. Or just learning how to play RW, which I think is really the case. Plus Tampa has had some injuries so the lines were not that settled. I think he is currently being centred by Namestnikov. This is probably also why Drouin got bumped down and was to be sent down to the AHL.

Martin St. Louis was a playmaking winger, which complemented Stamkos well. Drouin was supposed to be the second coming of St. Louis, but with the coaching shift, and the depth on LW, Drouin is on the outside looking in.

I wonder if Jiri Hudler would fit as a rental for a playoff push.

 

[ernieren]

Stammer is a great player but not best in the lg. He should get a 9-9.5 a yr deal max. I actually hope he takes a smaller deal to stay in Tampa and help keep this team a contender for yrs to come. If he does end up leaving then it would be for 2 reasons .

1 He feels he'll win with a different team , Stl, Chi, Washington (doubt it ) LA, or another top tier team.

2 Money grab and doesn't care aboout winning so goes to a Leafs team or other team that will pay him and not care if he wins.

But from all talks so far the ball is in Tampa's hand and Stammer has shown he wants to be here . He bought a house here same with his parents he also can see he has a lot of good players around him that seem to be getting better every yr.