The Dreaded “Buyer’s Group” exposed...

[webottew]

At least with Ovechkin and Crosby Young Guns they were created before e-pack and Upper Deck really turning on the YG printing press. Here is a breakdown of all of the Young Guns submitted to BGS/PSA from 1999-2020 using data pulled from today:

That is an awesome chart. Thanks for taking the time to put it together. :beer:

 

[Triple B]

For sure, all of it. As I said "level playing field" right now, no sports going so everyone is getting love, and not all traditional sources.

It's actually probably more of the reason for card increases across the board then any buyers groups, collectors and the hobby as a whole are thriving and it's awesome!:beer:

That’s a nice take. Not an accurate one, but a very “pie one the sky”, positive way of thinking. Kudos!

 

[HammerHawks]

Ovechkin and Crosby were both included since the numbers were close and they're the two most valuable Young Guns to date. It is reasonable to assume with copies of Ovechkin and Crosby that the vast majority of cards that have seen the light of day have also been graded.

Given these numbers, can McDavid's Young Guns someday approach the prices of Ovechkin and Crosby?

First, awesome work on the chart! That is interesting to see. Second, I do not think I'd make that argument. I see loads of raw YGs of those two on Facebook daily. It was a different era back then...if you pulled a card like that at the time, your inclination was to put it in a one touch and put it away, not immediately send it in for grading. I'm not trying to argue that there's more ungraded than graded, but I do not think it's accurate to say the VAST majority of them have been graded. I'd also argue likely many of those graded copies have been graded within the last few years. For example, even just a few years ago, I think it would be safe most collectors would consider PSA to be more geared for vintage cards instead of modern. However, this has been shown untrue over the last few years. I think the quantity of Ovy YGs graded by PSA specifically reflects that, as that number has likely skyrocketed since the Caps won their Cup.

 

[gomaz]

Here is a breakdown of all of the Young Guns submitted to BGS/PSA from 1999-2020 using data pulled from today:

Why didn't you count all the PSA submissions for each card? You missed the half grades and the qualified copies.

 

[dismonkey1]

12,000 YGs of McDavid graded between PSA and BGS. That is quite a lot. With Luka Doncic, you have almost 11,000 PSA 10s of just the base PRIZM RC..and we all know that there are a zillion variations of the PRIZMs. That is just a crazy supply of PSA 10s. Yet the market has doubled/tripled in a few months for these cards. Is it Ryan's point that a lot of sites are hyping certain cards as "investments" (this in one along with the Topps Trout and the Griffey UD) and people are reading these opinions and just buying them up. Or, to Barrie's point, is the market just good and people will keep buying with the prices continuing to rise? Will the bubble burst or in a year from now will a Doncic Prizm be worth 1K (with me regretting not buying one at 500-600)?
With hockey, the Crosby YG was flat for almost a decade and then all of sudden...poof...he just took off and really hasn't looked back.

 

[WatchMyBreaks]

Why didn't you count all the PSA submissions for each card? You missed the half grades and the qualified copies.

I misread PSAs explanation on their pop report for the three separate categories.

 

[gomaz]

I misread PSAs explanation on their pop report for the three separate categories.

So just a note for those who are relying on the numbers on Billy's chart above and that value accuracy, they are not accurate. But they aren't that far off either. :thumbsup:

 

[WatchMyBreaks]

So just a note for those who are relying on the numbers on Billy's chart above and that value accuracy, they are not accurate. But they aren't that far off either. :thumbsup:

It’s impossible to say if the numbers are correct at all considering it’s impossible to know how many submissions are resubmissions in hopes of higher grades. But unless this practice is three times higher specifically with McDavid it’s reasonable to assume there are at least double the amount of McDavid rookies printed compared to Crosby and Ovechkin.

 

[Triple B]

McDavid was massively printed. With all of the ways to acquire one (hobby and especially retail and ePack) vs the products UD had back in 2006, there’s probably 2x as many or more. That just tells you how much product they pushed out in McDavid’s rookie year.

 

[gomaz]

It’s impossible to say if the numbers are correct at all considering it’s impossible to know how many submissions are resubmissions in hopes of higher grades. But unless this practice is three times higher specifically with McDavid it’s reasonable to assume there are at least double the amount of McDavid rookies printed compared to Crosby and Ovechkin.

Sure but your list was meant to share data from the pop reports but was not complete or accurate. What you are now talking about is a whole other issue altogether.

 

[quincy]

If you missed buying that card, you missed it.

This reminds me of the expression "If you can see the bandwagon, it's too late to jump on it."

McDavid was massively printed. With all of the ways to acquire one (hobby and especially retail and ePack) vs the products UD had back in 2006, there’s probably 2x as many or more. That just tells you how much product they pushed out in McDavid’s rookie year.

This was the biggest release BY FAR of anything the distributors had to handle for hockey in decades.

 

[FrozenInferno]

This hobby has taken an... interesting turn these last few years to say the least.

Buyers groups, trimming scandals, shady grading company practices. What a time to be alive.

 

[deepbluejacket]

This hobby has taken an... interesting turn these last few years to say the least.

Buyers groups, trimming scandals, shady grading company practices. What a time to be alive.

Nah, give me 1989 or so. When all the packs were searched and people would use black marker to modify cards.

Mike

 

[will-411]

Just a rambling middle aged mans opinion on a Thursday morning.

Is it appropriate to refer to it as 'the hobby' anymore? The term 'the hobby' implies it is only a leisurely pursuit for all. Sports cards stopped being inclusively a hobby ages ago - it is a business with hobby aspects.

There's nothing wrong with participating in the business as a hobby, but these aspects that make hobbyists shake their heads aren't really surprising to people that look at it from a business aspect - cheating within basically an unregulated business for large returns on investment? I'm not surprised at all where the business is at, and the unfortunate collateral damage to hobbyists.

The current state of the business can draw parallels to the stock market in that the majority of the money in it is the business aspect, with some people participating at a scale they feel comfortable at, taking a bit of a chance here and there... whereas the stock market started as a business though and then afforded 'hobbyists' the opportunity to do a bit of trading, try a little here and there, Sports Cards grew the other way, from hobby to business.

Anyone that is getting involved in this as a business venture, make sure you do your homework, and don't approach it as a hobby. You'll get burned.

Cory

 

[TheGriceBoys]

Just a rambling middle aged mans opinion on a Thursday morning.

Is it appropriate to refer to it as 'the hobby' anymore? The term 'the hobby' implies it is only a leisurely pursuit for all. Sports cards stopped being inclusively a hobby ages ago - it is a business with hobby aspects.

There's nothing wrong with participating in the business as a hobby, but these aspects that make hobbyists shake their heads aren't really surprising to people that look at it from a business aspect - cheating within basically an unregulated business for large returns on investment? I'm not surprised at all where the business is at, and the unfortunate collateral damage to hobbyists.

The current state of the business can draw parallels to the stock market in that the majority of the money in it is the business aspect, with some people participating at a scale they feel comfortable at, taking a bit of a chance here and there... whereas the stock market started as a business though and then afforded 'hobbyists' the opportunity to do a bit of trading, try a little here and there, Sports Cards grew the other way, from hobby to business.

Anyone that is getting involved in this as a business venture, make sure you do your homework, and don't approach it as a hobby. You'll get burned.

Cory

I really like this post, well thought out Cory.

I think you can make money and have a lot of fun if you keep things diverse. Unless you’re a player collector of a top guy and are hoarding multiples of stuff purely for the flip, I agree, you’ll get junked on your return. But it’s entirely possible to have a fun part of your PC and an investment part, or fun with your investments? Or just fun and not worry about investments and “win” by default?

It’s all up to the collector, but I still look at it as a hobby and that’s why I can enjoy a $10 card as much as a $10K card, truly can. Good stuff Cory, always solid and logical feedback from you!

 

[Triple B]

Just a rambling middle aged mans opinion on a Thursday morning.

Is it appropriate to refer to it as 'the hobby' anymore? The term 'the hobby' implies it is only a leisurely pursuit for all. Sports cards stopped being inclusively a hobby ages ago - it is a business with hobby aspects.

There's nothing wrong with participating in the business as a hobby, but these aspects that make hobbyists shake their heads aren't really surprising to people that look at it from a business aspect - cheating within basically an unregulated business for large returns on investment? I'm not surprised at all where the business is at, and the unfortunate collateral damage to hobbyists.

The current state of the business can draw parallels to the stock market in that the majority of the money in it is the business aspect, with some people participating at a scale they feel comfortable at, taking a bit of a chance here and there... whereas the stock market started as a business though and then afforded 'hobbyists' the opportunity to do a bit of trading, try a little here and there, Sports Cards grew the other way, from hobby to business.

Anyone that is getting involved in this as a business venture, make sure you do your homework, and don't approach it as a hobby. You'll get burned.

Cory

Very well stated.

As a long time collector with his foot still actually in the hobby, you’ll start to notice that these groups and this new money coming into the hobby has a trickle down effect on the actual “hobby” itself. Cards from the 90s are spiking in reaction to these insane prices and now that Goldin sold a Ref Trout Chrome Auto for $900k, more attention from all walks are heading our way.

I’m thinking things will get more INSANE before it levels out again.

 

[steveottfan]

I just have to say that this is a fascinating thread and I appreciate the contributions and discussion here. I operate in my own little hobby bubble so while I am well aware of the prices being realized, its interesting to get a little background of why.

I've started to dabble a little in baseball cards recently and its like a different hobby world than what I'm used to for hockey. When I see what Topps has been doing to cater directly to demand, I don't see hockey picking up steam until UD does a 360' or Topps enters the hockey business. The buzz Topps generates over social media with releases designed specifically to create that buzz I think feeds the hobbies overall speculative interest. I see something like "Project 2020" and I'm amazed at how much interest and buzz it generates every single day. In comparison, the UD approach to the hockey card market is dull and boring.