Will cards make a return like comics

[newfiecomicguy1]

Over the past 4-5 the comic back issue industry is booming. Comics that sat in dollar boxes for years have all turned red hot. A lot of the change is credited to the comic movie industry. All the great super hero movies, Tv and Netflix shows have made older 1st app of every character hot. Not only have the key and semi key characters become hot but every first app. I was shocked to look at some of the prices of minor characters and how hot all the comics have become.

My question is will the card industry face Be similar. Cards like comics seen a big change. Back issue comics was just like vintage cards, ice cold. Collectors were more interested with flashy covers and variants just like patches and autos are more popular in cards. Vintage cards ESP 80-90 is cold and easily available at low prices, similar to comics. Will we see people switch back from modern stuff to start recollecting rookies of vintage guys making them hot and jump in price. Comics have jumped 10x20 times and even more. Sure some older cards still sell well but those are few where as almost every comic is hot. If you have some older comics check them out, you might be sitting on some hot comics that you considered garbage lol.

 

[ChuckNorrisFearsSid]

I really doubt it. You cited the rash of superhero movies contributing to the revival of comics but what's that equate to in hockey? The trend towards group breaks since products are so expensive is eventually going to reduce the number of collectors in my opinion. I think the manufacturers are certainly trending towards the higher-end one-pack type products. How many young potential collectors are going to shell out for such a product?

I actually find myself leaning more towards collecting OPC any more. I previously almost solely broke ITG stuff but since Leaf took over I haven't had any interest in their products, with the only exception potentially being Lumber Kings. In other words I'm almost out of interest with a hobby I actually do enjoy. I LOVE busting wax but when you hit the point that it makes you squeamish to shell out 200+ per PACK or you find yourself rationalizing a cheaper product just to rip open some wrappers...maybe it's time. Luckily for me there's enough older ITG stuff floating around for cheap that probably won't ever happen .

 

[ncm7772]

I doubt it. Seems like card collecting gets less popular every year.

 

[gomaz]

It is already happening. Just from being at card shows I am hearing LOTS of collectors saying that they are starting to collect vintage. They are chasing the rookies of the stars from the 50's through the 80's. Demand for rookie cards of Messier, Yzerman, Gretzky, Roy, Lemieux etc is the highest I've seen it in 20 years.

I think one of the reasons is that all of us who have been collecting modern for so long are starting to clue in that we are seeing a repeat of the early 90's in terms of over-saturation and mass production. Only difference between then and now is that the mass production is across 15-20 brands per year versus 5-6. I would bet that the total cards produced per year today is the same per collector that it was in the early 90's. What I mean is that if in the early 90's there were 50,000,000 total cards produced and there were 50,000 collectors that is 1000 cards per collector. And today if there are 10,000,000 cards produced each year there are 10,000 collectors for the same 1000 cards per year per collector. Relatively speaking we are again in a period of over-saturation which in economic terms means that supply exceeds demand and that just ain't healthy.

And at the end of the day, in like say 20 years from now, is anyone going to care about all of the parallels and game-UNworn memorabilia cards that people chase today? I think not, for the most part. Rather they will care about rookie cards of the true stars who get their name on hardware and hospitals and cards of favorite players with mem pieces that actually saw game action.

 

[RGM81]

After the surge of new collectors at the start of the 15-16 year, due to McDavidmania, it seems as though a lot of long-time collectors are scaling back, shutting things down, tightening up what they collect, etc.

In order to spark a resurgence, you need an impetus. McDavid was the closest thing you'll see to creating a massive surge in new collectors for probably the next ten years. Unless the new collectors stick around, and it's hard to see why they would given the return from an increasingly wallet-tightening market (seriously, I bought a Fucale auto jersey booklet from Ultimate for under $20 yesterday--that's obscenely cheap) that refuses to pay for anything that doesn't have McDavid's face on it, things will regress to where they were in 14-15 for the year ahead.

 

[oasis]

A friend and I were discussing the very fact of the overabundance of autos and the falling prices.

We used a scenario of a superstar today who wins 3 stanley cups in his first 10 years . His rookies date back to panini/upper Deck licensing agreement.

So this rookie had RC as autos in 30 releases. The average release with parallels had 500 autos. (on average per product). thats 15,000 auto Rookie cards.

now lets say in year two it gets halved so 7,500 Autos but he wins a cup
So year 3 back to 15,000
year 4 15,000 and he wins a second cup
year 5 increases to 22,500
Year 6 license agreement cut back to 1 but still 20+ release so 10,000
year 7 10,000 and he wins a cup
year 8 15,000
year 9 15,000
year 10 10,000

That is over 135,000 autos in a 10 year span!

Now Higher End products will still carry more value in years to come especially ARP #/99

But anything and everything else, even if they are a HOF caliber star and win 3 more cups, will plummet to $20-$50 range except his rookie releases which may still garner double those values! That is what Sales price analysis tells us regarding some of todays Elite! Dont believe me, just look at Final sales value for Toews, Ovie, crosby, kane.. It gets even worse for older studs like Iginla.

It isnt just hockey this is happening in either!

Did you know before game 1 was played in the NFL last sunday that panini had issued 13 products for the 2016-17 season?

 

[M35Richter]

I totally agree with a lot of what has been said above. Just think at how many autographs Wayne Gretzky will have on the market when he eventually passes away. I might be wrong, but I think his first official packed out auto was from 1992-93 UD Heroes. That is already about 24-25 years of signing. He definitely will hold value better than everyone else, but the sheer number of available auto cards will be staggering. Gretzky is only 55 years old and likely has several more decades still to sign. Scary for that supply vs. demand model.

 

[BigBarracuda]

Perhaps I'm one of the few optimists, but it's more like a hybrid including a few of the comments above.

I think the RC market will gain value. Right now the driving force in the hobby "appears" to be investors and bulk buyers hence the flat line performance of the hobby. When we get back to the essence of collecting (collecting favourite players or heroes or superstars), then things will become fun again. Currently the number of people trying to make a buck (or possibly a living) off this industry skews the activity of the hobby.
My projection is this (sorry Canadian hockey lovers): as the market in the US slowly gains momentum in Hockey, you will see more and more young people delving into tho wax hobby. Instead of drawing from the 30,000,000 people in Canada the hobby will expand within the 290,000,000 people in the US. I'm not all inferring that the USA is the saviour to hockey wax, rather I'm saying the larger populous can only improve the interest in what they will perceive the hobby's vintage rc's to be. With the serious interest in hockey in the US finally starting to spread south of the northern states, the hobby can't help but benefit from that.
So...for the investors and bulk buyers that are in it mostly (or solely) for profit, the wait will seem too long. For the true collectors, I think the hobby will have a huge uptick in about 10 years and will continue to be strong as long as US Hockey continues to perform well.

Just my view :corn:

 

[yzerberg]

I do think our hobby will make a come back, just maybe not in the way comics are. But tournaments like the world cup thats about to start are good for Hockey and good for our hobby as well. people will always idolize star players and they will always want something of theirs. but as Jeremy has stated the manufactures are over saturating there market and as we are witnessing, the market is in the process of correcting it's self. but it's going to get worse before it gets better. For example, we all see how many people have been leaving our hobby, right? well like most businesses to make up the losses due to having a smaller market, they have made more "high-end" products selling at higher prices to off-set the loss of buyers. it's very similar to the Oil industry, demand drops, price drops, they produce MORE and just sell at a lower rate but earn the same or more, only difference is in our hobby they are selling at a higher rate until the market can't sustain it anymore. just like the Oil industry did before it tanked... remember when oil was $120 a barrel... no different. Our hobby is not finished, it just was riding a high and is about to crash to a low and a correcting point, McDavid has delayed that, but at the end of the day we are in charge of how our hobby thrives or dies.

 

[RGM81]

Those numbers don't pass the smell test, though. Not even really all that close. It's one thing to speculate and spit-ball numbers for simplicity's sake but there are hard figures out there and the evidence on top stars shows that many of them scale back dramatically after their rookie season (other commitments, wanting to focus, not liking signing, etc.) and at the same time, the card companies do demonstrate some modicum of restraint for autographs of those top stars.

A player will probably never sign more cards in any given season than he does in his rookie year. They do huge batches of stickers at the Rookie Showcase and there's multiple follow-ups throughout the season once we get into the hard-signed cards.

You look at a guy like Jonathan Toews. I randomly selected the 2011-12 year to get an idea of how many autos he had out on the market that particular season. He has a total of 87 autograph cards, the vast majority of which (all but 9) are numbered, virtually all to 50 or less. The total print run on the serial numbered cards is 1,247. That is more than 85% less than your numbers, and I would suspect that those unnumbered autographs would largely fall into the short print category, so at max for Toews you might be talking 2,000 signatures that year.

 

[numbern9ne]

Those numbers don't pass the smell test, though. Not even really all that close. It's one thing to speculate and spit-ball numbers for simplicity's sake but there are hard figures out there and the evidence on top stars shows that many of them scale back dramatically after their rookie season (other commitments, wanting to focus, not liking signing, etc.) and at the same time, the card companies do demonstrate some modicum of restraint for autographs of those top stars.

A player will probably never sign more cards in any given season than he does in his rookie year. They do huge batches of stickers at the Rookie Showcase and there's multiple follow-ups throughout the season once we get into the hard-signed cards.

You look at a guy like Jonathan Toews. I randomly selected the 2011-12 year to get an idea of how many autos he had out on the market that particular season. He has a total of 87 autograph cards, the vast majority of which (all but 9) are numbered, virtually all to 50 or less. The total print run on the serial numbered cards is 1,247. That is more than 85% less than your numbers, and I would suspect that those unnumbered autographs would largely fall into the short print category, so at max for Toews you might be talking 2,000 signatures that year.

You see them sign less after their first or second year (especially if they are a star) because the price of their auto probably doubles, triples, costs UD 10 fold of what it did their rookie year too.

 

[Maple Leaf Sports]

Did you know before game 1 was played in the NFL last sunday that panini had issued 13 products for the 2016-17 season?

Keep in mind that's due to their ridiculously overpriced exclusive they now have with the NFL.

The speculation is they'll have to pump out 35-40 products this year to cover their costs (and maybe 5 of them WON'T be below cost by the end of the year).

 

[Triple B]

High grade vintage will survive. So long as there are people wanting to make money, there will be high interest.

This junk that's being pushed on people right now will not. Connor McDavid's Young Guns RC went from a $300 card to an overpriced $125 card. Supply has already overtaken demand as I've been to shows where dealers are simply "holding" their cards because "they're too cheap". They won't get any pricier. Not with thousands upon thousands still sitting in Walmart blasters.

I've stated elsewhere that cards will die a slow death, much like stamp collecting. The next generation of kids simply aren't interested in cards since there's a digital world that has their attention. Modern cards will disappear when our generation disappears. I don't think my kids will give one solitary **** about my cards as an inheritance.

Comics are a different breed because the comic companies have finally pulled their heads out of their asses and have turned their characters into movie stars. They've re-energized the interest in comics by creating a new legion of fans just from the movies alone. Maybe the NHL and Upper Deck should start putting out hockey movies and see how that works for them. What they're doing now IS NOT.

 

[yzerberg]

"This junk that's being pushed on people right now will not. Connor McDavid's Young Guns RC went from a $300 card to an overpriced $125 card. Supply has already overtaken demand as I've been to shows where dealers are simply "holding" their cards because "they're too cheap". They won't get any pricier. Not with thousands upon thousands still sitting in Walmart blasters."


if you ever want your hair blown back take a look at how many of his young guns have been graded... :whatthehell: thooooooousands!

 

[gomaz]

High grade vintage will survive. So long as there are people wanting to make money, there will be high interest.

This junk that's being pushed on people right now will not. Connor McDavid's Young Guns RC went from a $300 card to an overpriced $125 card. Supply has already overtaken demand as I've been to shows where dealers are simply "holding" their cards because "they're too cheap". They won't get any pricier. Not with thousands upon thousands still sitting in Walmart blasters.

I've stated elsewhere that cards will die a slow death, much like stamp collecting. The next generation of kids simply aren't interested in cards since there's a digital world that has their attention. Modern cards will disappear when our generation disappears. I don't think my kids will give one solitary **** about my cards as an inheritance.

Comics are a different breed because the comic companies have finally pulled their heads out of their asses and have turned their characters into movie stars. They've re-energized the interest in comics by creating a new legion of fans just from the movies alone. Maybe the NHL and Upper Deck should start putting out hockey movies and see how that works for them. What they're doing now IS NOT.

Agree with lots of that.

Back when epack first started I offered a bet to the guy who posted above you that the McDavid Young Gun would be a $100 card within a year of coming out. He was willing to take my bet but I chickened out. Wish I wouldn't have.

Check out these stats:

PSA has slabbed 569 Crosby Young guns
BGS has slabbed 2219 Crosby Young Guns

versus

PSA has slabbed 628 McDavid Young Guns
BGS has slabbed 3535 McDavid Young Guns

So Already, in less than one year, there are more slabbed McDavids then there are Crosby's in 10 years!!! This is a monster sign of just how much has been produced this year and how much less the value can possibly hold.

In 10% of the time, the big grading companies have slabbed 50% MORE McDavid's than Crosby's. Think about that.

And that's just the slabbed copies. Nevermind all the unopened product out there still.

If you are someone holding 5-50 copies thinking you are going to realize a return on your investment....LOLOLOLOL. Wrong. Sell fast as the value can only go in one direction over the next few years. DOesn't even matter what the kid does from here on out.

Just remember that you can't even sell a Selanne, Forsberg or Lidstrom Upper Deck RC on eBay anymore for as much as 99 cents because no one wants to pay the shipping and everyone who wants one either has one or is in zero rush to get one because they are massively abundant.

Vintage on the other hand - I don't see there ever being a severe decline as the players who drive that segment of the hobby are entrenched in the history of the sports and therefore of our countries.

I do think that the World Championships are a step in the right direction towards increasing the interest and popularity of hockey in the US. As much as I want to see Canada take the tourney, I can't deny that if the US wins it, it would benefit the health of our hobby and I'm all for that.

 

[RGM81]

Keep in mind that's due to their ridiculously overpriced exclusive they now have with the NFL.

The speculation is they'll have to pump out 35-40 products this year to cover their costs (and maybe 5 of them WON'T be below cost by the end of the year).

That's obscene.

 

[gomaz]

Keep in mind that's due to their ridiculously overpriced exclusive they now have with the NFL.

The speculation is they'll have to pump out 35-40 products this year to cover their costs (and maybe 5 of them WON'T be below cost by the end of the year).

Ya know, when it really comes down to it, the source of all the problems with respect to long-term value of our modern collections are the Leagues and PA's. The license fees must be higher than they are worth. They just have to be.

They obviously and erroneously think their properties are worth more than they actually are.

Why else would Panini and UD over-saturate and slowly kill their own markets? Surely they remember the early 90's and wouldn't want to repeat that again. Or perhaps they don't care because collectors will always hunt the latest and greatest flavor of the month rookie.

 

[foley2k]

I had a whole thing typed out, but this might sum it up better.


I'd rather buy the original Ghostbusters on VHS or Beta, rather than this years remake on Blu-Ray

 

[Triple B]

Ya know, when it really comes down to it, the source of all the problems with respect to long-term value of our modern collections are the Leagues and PA's. The license fees must be higher than they are worth. They just have to be.

They obviously and erroneously think their properties are worth more than they actually are.

Why else would Panini and UD over-saturate and slowly kill their own markets? Surely they remember the early 90's and wouldn't want to repeat that again. Or perhaps they don't care because collectors will always hunt the latest and greatest flavor of the month rookie.

I remember when we were at the UD "Summit" at the Expo back in 2005 (I think...?), a respected member here asked about the amount of product being released and how collectors can't keep up and one of the UD reps told him "I can't help your addiction".

It annoyed me as an answer to a question being asked by a collector but it was true.

If UD (or Panini in this example) had to pay for their exclusive license by releasing steamers (like Contours), it's up to the collectors to stop funding it. It's almost cliche now, but we all line up and put our hard earned money into a ship that is already at the bottom of the ocean (meaning, ANYONE could have seen how dog **** Contours was going to be).

You want to see a turning point in the hobby? Wait until The Cup is released. If it's true and this stuff is coming out at $800+ a pack, you'll see the jilted turning and leaving. I watched one high end buyer spend $30,000 in The Cup a few years ago and he said he'd be lucky to get back 25% of his cost, so he quit. Blah, blah, blah..."he should be collecting for fun"...true, but there's a section of the hobby that UD depends upon to keep these releases afloat that
won't be there. I've done multiple cases in varying years...I won't touch it this year.

 

[gomaz]

I watched one high end buyer spend $30,000 in The Cup a few years ago and he said he'd be lucky to get back 25% of his cost, so he quit. Blah, blah, blah..."he should be collecting for fun"...true, but there's a section of the hobby that UD depends upon to keep these releases afloat that
won't be there.

Bolded point - yeah we see many people say that but it is usually collectors who cap their their spending at the level of OPC.

When you are breaking a case of Ultimate, like Yzerberg just did, you can bet your last dollar that he did not break it just to "have fun". No one who doesn't have doctor salary money breaks high-end just for fun. OPC, MVP, possibly even SPA are brands that are "for fun" but products like Cup, Ultimate, Premier are not made for collectors to "have fun". The whole "its a hobby" argument is naive. Sure it is at its core (and again that is what OPC is for) but at the luxury level it is about ROI (or gambling for those who enjoy group breaks). Plain and simple.