Puck or Pigskin???

[chakhae1]

I used to be a hardcore collector of all 4 major sports cards, but as my wallet became lighter I have been focusing on football over the past year b/c I am HUGE Rams fan and I fell into the entire Sam Bradford hype trap.

Some of my favorite products from last year include Certified, Topps Prime and Topps Finest and yesterday I got by first box of Topps Inception and I was totally blown out of the water by what I was able to pull. The 3 main hits were a Daniel Thomas absolutely ridiculous 4 CL patch with 7 breaks and a 3CL Von Miller patch, both are RPAS and both are at the top of my football PC. I also pulled a 2CL patch of Kendall Hunter.

My initial question is, is there any hockey product that can compare to Topps Inception in any area? From a price vantage point, one would think that Ultimate Collection would compare since they cost exactly the same at my LCS. My lone pack of this product only yielded 1 patch 2 autos that were nothing to yell at home about and from all the breaks I have seen not a single pack yielded 3 patches or 2 auto patches. So, it looks like Football is the clear winner here.

As a matter of fact the only hockey product that might come close to Topps Inception is THE CUP and it costs more than 4 times more than Inception does. The patches in Inception are also absolutely gorgeous for the most part since the swatch window is quite large whereas even a super high end product like the CUP still has it's fair share of 1 CL patches in it's product run.

Perhaps when it comes to cards, Topps just knows how to make cards the way they should be made? I somewhat retract from my statement actually b/c Topps Fivestar was sadly known for a bunch of 1CL patches in it's product, but maybe that's why they corrected that issue with Inception? Regardless, when it comes to higher end products it seems at first glance that football cards are the winner.

Now let's look at the lower end products. Pretty much all football products guarantee a patch in each box and if you don't get one, you get an extra game used hit. Off the top of my head this happened for me with Certified, Epix, Finest and the only product I didn't get a patch in all of my boxes was Prime b/c they are super rare in that product for some reason.

Now for hockey what low-mid end product guarantees a patch? Hmmm, ya none. I am a big time patch collector and there's nothing that impresses me more than pulling a nice patch. If you look at mid-end hockey products such as SPX, SPA, UpperDeck, patches are all semi or big time case hits, but if you look at the value of most of the patches, they are not really worth all that much.

Take a look at SPA football. My 2 boxes yielded me three auto patches and from everyone I have talked to, this is a common trend. Similarly, SPA hockey patches are I believe 3-4 per case??? This trend also continues with SPX and every other product that I have seen busted. If you want to land a nice patch or patch auto in hockey products, one needs to wander off to new products such as Luxury Suite and Crown Royale which cost more and personally, I am not really attracted to. Whatever happened to improving the staple instead of adding new products that may or may not be around a couple of years from now??? So, once again it looks like football is the winner of the low to mid-end sports card market.

I am aware that this mass production of niceness in football boxes does effect it's value, but I don't really care b/c I keep everything that I pull. I am all about pulling stuff I like and I don't really care about how much a given card is worth and I am aware that I am in the minority when it comes to what people think about cards.

Remember, that in the past I have spent 1000s and 1000s of dollars in hockey cards, but the more football product that I bust, the more I like it and the more I am turned away from hockey. As a matter of fact I don't remember the last time I busted a hockey box and pulled something I really liked.

This is not to say I am totally turned away from the hockey hobby, but with the mass availability of my PC cards at card shows and friends, I don't really find a need to be busting hockey wax since the only pulls that would make me happy are PC pulls. With football, with every new box I bust, I become a fan of a new player and a new team. Isn't that what collecting should be about? Gaining sports fans and a love for the game that you are collecting??? Just my two cents....

 

[v3rs3]

I'd much rather have my hockey than the watered down football market, where patches come in everything and sell for a couple dollars a week after release.

No offense, but you're comparing two different kinds of collectors and two different sports. Hockey jerseys are more expensive to manufacture than football jerseys as well.

 

[chakhae1]

The watered down football market doesn't really concern me since I am not a seller of cards and I am just happy to pull a nice patch from the wax that I bust. At the end of the day most game used cards from any sport don't really sell for that much unless you pull a patch with a really nice swatch.

 

[Hama]

Topps has watered down every product that has had any kind of success with in the last 10 years. And in general, Topps just does not do high end products well.

And in football, for every success that they've had in Inception - I can count at least five failures in the last year to offset that. That being said, next year you'll likely see Inception with the same price point, but with one less hit, or more likely lesser - ie. instead of the three patches you got, you might get two and a jersey or one patch and two auto jerseys - with higher print runs.

 

[chakhae1]

^

I agree that Topps does not do high end products very well and Supreme is a good example of that, but I can come right back and say that Upperdeck doesn't do most products all that well since with the possibility of a mid end product such as SPA yielding a total sell value of $20 per box and lower end products yielding even less than that. The same type of pattern holds true for their higher end products as well which is why UD has gotten rid of a couple of them such as Trilogy.

Even with the lesser hit, when comparing it to a product such as Ultimate, I would still come out happier. Again i understand that the hockey and football markets are different beasts, but it can also should be mentioned that this is why I tend to get along better with football collectors since they are not always about making a quick buck and are more in the hobby just to collect.

 

[go_leafs]

hmmm you were lucky to hit a patch from Topps Inception, because a common pack of that will be 2 rookie autos + a jumbo jersey, which is almost exactly the same as Ultimate collection. Also there are no veteran autos in Inception, they are all rookies, which might factor in the price of the product

as for why the football and hockey markets are so different ?? because that customers from both markets welcomed and appreciated of what they did to each of their own product. From SPA, Football guys like their auto patch rookie, and hockey guys like their Future watch auto. It turns into a tradition of making products like that.

Also, there are WAY MORE set collectors in hockey than in football. Sticking with SPA, if they make their patch auto rookie as the true rookie, than less people will have the chance to make a set. Thus one might only cracks a couple of boxes, or even not buying any and just go to ebay for singles. BUT, when there are 999 auto rookies set to be made, people will crack more boxes, even cases to make sets. Thus the product drives the market, and SPA is still probably one of the most popular products today

same thing can be said for UD Series 1/2, as Young Guns, which are easy to come by, 1 in 4 packs, to have that much attentions each and every year than its football counterpart.

 

[chakhae1]

Hey Tom,

I agree that the set builders in hockey play a big role in how much of their product that is busted especially since I used to be one of those people, but that sort of goes back to my point that hockey card collecting is only beneficial to me if I pull a PC hit, Just back when I did bust hockey wax, I had more cards in my PC than I currently do.

 

[DredJAw]

Now let's look at the lower end products. Pretty much all football products guarantee a patch in each box and if you don't get one, you get an extra game used hit. ...

Take a look at SPA football. My 2 boxes yielded me three auto patches and from everyone I have talked to, this is a common trend. Similarly, SPA hockey patches are I believe 3-4 per case??? This trend also continues with SPX and every other product that I have seen busted.

Oyyy vayyy, how can this be a good thing?

This is, without a doubt, an absolutely terrible, terrible thing for the state of the hobby.

Football is going the way of 1 patch per pack guarantee. Which means they will be worth a couple bucks.

Remember what happened in the early 90's with Score and mass production? Well that's basically occuring right under our noses.

I know you like to keep your hits but there is something to be said for spending $80 a box and getting $15 of value worth back. Pretty soon you will stop cracking and buy those same singles for peanuts on the dollar.

 

[go_leafs]

Oyyy vayyy, how can this be a good thing?

This is, without a doubt, an absolutely terrible, terrible thing for the state of the hobby.

Football is going the way of 1 patch per pack guarantee. Which means they will be worth a couple bucks.

Remember what happened in the early 90's with Score and mass production? Well that's basically occuring right under our noses.

I know you like to keep your hits but there is something to be said for spending $80 a box and getting $15 of value worth back. Pretty soon you will stop cracking and buy those same singles for peanuts on the dollar.

money value is a concern, but not for the OP, he is stating for a collecting standpoint, hitting patches are a good thing, and should not be that rare

customers from each market are accepted of what the current state is. It is very hard to change it and I dont see the reason to change it.

if every product in hockey is like Luxury Suite, we are in trouble

 

[dahabsfan]

Topps Inception was a prototypical Topps product - tons of nice looking hits but the vast majority sell for peanuts and hold little interest to traders. Your box for example yielded about $40-50 return if sold and that was a 3 patch box. I know you say prices aren't key but in the long run as Ernie said if there value just keeps getting driven down, there's no need to crack anymore.

It's also worth noting that the vast majority of Topps patches are RC oriented and 100% photoshoot, although most manufacturers RC patches are PS - Topps uses them way too much and provides veteran content way too little. In addition Topps has become a parallel nightmare which doesn't help either.

At the end of the day if you like football rip it but YOU have to make that decision not a public forum full of opinions.


Darren

 

[chakhae1]

money value is a concern, but not for the OP, he is stating for a collecting standpoint, hitting patches are a good thing, and should not be that rare

customers from each market are accepted of what the current state is. It is very hard to change it and I dont see the reason to change it.

if every product in hockey is like Luxury Suite, we are in trouble

That is exactly what I meant. I understand the entire notion that making sweet hits such as patches case hits does keep their value up and in turn keeps the hobby alive, but who are we kidding, does pulling patches in every box really pose a threat to the hobby? In the long run I don't think it does then again maybe you are talking to the wrong person here, since I don't bust nearly as much wax as I used to.

 

[chakhae1]

Topps Inception was a prototypical Topps product - tons of nice looking hits but the vast majority sell for peanuts and hold little interest to traders. Your box for example yielded about $40-50 return if sold and that was a 3 patch box. I know you say prices aren't key but in the long run as Ernie said if there value just keeps getting driven down, there's no need to crack anymore.

It's also worth noting that the vast majority of Topps patches are RC oriented and 100% photoshoot, although most manufacturers RC patches are PS - Topps uses them way too much and provides veteran content way too little. In addition Topps has become a parallel nightmare which doesn't help either.

At the end of the day if you like football rip it but YOU have to make that decision not a public forum full of opinions.


Darren

I feel that your post explains most of the products out there for all sports. Let's go back to the UD Ultimate example. My pack had a Luongo Premium Swatches patch, a Dana Tyrell rookie auto and a Nick Foligno auto, total value around $40 or so and this was an above average pack since I have seen a lot of packs with 2 hits with a total sale value of maybe $20.

Again, as I said in my first post I collect cards to find players to follow and to pull something nice to look at. Von Miller and Daniel Thomas are two up and coming players in the NFL and the swatches I managed to pull got me excited about the cards and since they are true rookie cards and not the daunted parallels you mentioned, the potential for them to increase in value is pretty good. That being said I saw a Miller with a similar swatch sell for $40 and Thomas sells in between the 20-30 range, but I haven't seen one end with a nice a swatch as mine.

Your photoshoot reference isn't really legit either since every company uses them and I at least have come to accept it. Inception however does use game worn swatches. I am also a hater of parallels and to this day I don't understand why companies continue to use them since in most cases the lower numbered parallels actually sell for less than the base card unless it's something low like a 1/1 or something, but that's another debate for another day.

 

[troyjk]

Lets just go back to the good ol days of 96/97 Upperdeck with a game jersey at what?? 1 :16,500 packs

 

[chakhae1]

^ lol, those jersey cards were SWEET looking. At the end of the day there is too much everything in the hobby nowadays and that's why we love it. At least for me.

 

[go_leafs]

That is exactly what I meant. I understand the entire notion that making sweet hits such as patches case hits does keep their value up and in turn keeps the hobby alive, but who are we kidding, does pulling patches in every box really pose a threat to the hobby? In the long run I don't think it does then again maybe you are talking to the wrong person here, since I don't bust nearly as much wax as I used to.

I am not going to touch the "water down" market since it has been brought up

from another view

yes, i think if Upperdeck makes patches a one-per box hit, I am guaranteeing you wont see any Limited Logos or Premium Patches (or any jumbo patches) because UD will run out of patches and you wont see any nice patches in those sets either because they will be used in other sets

 

[chakhae1]

Ok, maybe my point is better proven by comparing Topps Finest Football with a product in it's similar price range such as SPA. Topps Finest football guarantees and auto jersey and a rookie auto patch in every box. The auto jerseys include rookies and veterans. SPA hockey as we all know is a staple of the hockey hobby b/c of some of the reasons that have been mentioned here.

A below average box of Finest last year could yield you an auto jersey of Brandon Lafell and an auto patch of Armanti Edwards. An above average box such as the one I got, yielded the Lafell auto jersey, a redzone auto of colt mccoy and a nice 3CL patch of jermaine gresham, so not so bad and I almost made my money back on the box.

Now, for SPA hockey. A below average box could have you get something like an Oscar Moeller SOTT, Joe Pavelski SOTT and a rookie auto of Kyle Palmieri. An above average box, could yield two auto patches and a decent SOTT, but these from the breaks I've seen are maybe 1-2 boxes per case if even that whereas a box similar to my box of Finest might show up a little more often.

At the end of the day, people will always bust wax and regardless of what I think which sport is more desirable to collect, collecting will always be around and I think that's the main point here.

 

[Kyle]

The number of football collectors vs hockey guys (not counting those who do both) is heavily in favor of football. That's partially why the print runs are so high.

Football rookies can quadruple in price overnight. Look at Randall Cobb's completed listings since last Thursday night and the prices before then. A guy can go from the common box to the Buy it Now jackpot based on one play. That doesn't happen with hockey.

Hockey guys in general are also far more picky and even borderline whiners when it comes to cards. Everything has to be hard signed, game worn, low print run, and have a ridiculous patch or else it's "junk". Even that isn't always a guaranteed success. There are nice patches in Luxury Suite but sale prices are weak.

Some of the football out there looks like crap to me but I see it sell like hotcakes at my shop and at shows. Take that same design and use it in a hockey product and guys will demand death by a thousand cuts. That's why Panini reviews have been so bad thus far. What worked in other sports is considered garbage in hockey.

Contenders football is right up there as one of the most anticipated and broken products of the year. There are sp auto's of even the most obscure players and people go after them. In comparison, the sp's in hockey were all the top rookies. How original. Guys who collect hockey and football were pissed because they were hoping for the same thing with hockey. Part of the excitement of opening a football box is not knowing who the sp's are. What might initially seem like a dud could turn out to be a $100 card. Of all the mistakes Panini made I thought this was one of the worst. It would have been a whole new wrinkle that hockey guys have never seen. As it is, even the top contender rookies sell for around $100. You can't touch a Manning or Brady for less than $1000. Taylor Hall could win 5 cups and it won't go that high.

I could go on forever but it's comparing apples to oranges.

 

[chakhae1]

^

I didn't really want to compare football collectors to hockey collectors since like you said it is like comparing apples to oranges, but I know exactly where you are coming from. I have had some mass exposure to football collectors on blog tv and the broadcasts they do of their box breaks are quite simply just more friendly and everyone knows one another and it's a cozy atmosphere.

There are also a bunch of guys that go on blog tv to do their group breaks and raffles whereas there is only one main guy that goes on blog tv and sells hockey cards at inflated prices(i won't get into that though).

I can't even stand to stay in that chat room for more than 15 minutes b/c it's just a bunch of people talking about how much this card and that card is worth and it just isn't a friendly atmosphere at all, but again I won't get into that...

That's what also makes it easy to me to be attracted to the football marker. Nicer people, nicer cards. Seems like a no brainer for me..

 

[Triple B]

I am not going to touch the "water down" market since it has been brought up

from another view

yes, i think if Upperdeck makes patches a one-per box hit, I am guaranteeing you wont see any Limited Logos or Premium Patches (or any jumbo patches) because UD will run out of patches and you wont see any nice patches in those sets either because they will be used in other sets

As long as Foot Locker sells jerseys, UD will never run out of patches. Aren't those Inception patches all photo shoot anyways? They're fleecing people. You think you're getting value in your boxes but you're really not...mind you, so long as people are willing to pay heavily for these cards, maybe you are.

Topps will find a way to screw it up. UFC Round 1 is worth its weight in gold, but Topps couldn't keep the cards at the level it was at. Once they see they have a winning formula, they hammer it out the next series or year.

 

[chakhae1]

^ The Inception patches are all authentic game worn patches. It has always been next to impossible to get value out of any box you buy and this will never change. The hobby has always been about the lucky pull regardless of how much wax you bust.