Quiet today, so let's talk 2015-16 Young Guns

D

deepbluejacket

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Question for those who know more than me: just how many of these things are there? Vis a vis other years? I went looking for a Panarin Young Gun this weekend and the market is just flooded with them. He sells for comparative peanuts when you look at his accomplishments and team, so I had to presume the market can't absorb him. Rantanen seems to be in a similar situation. Does this production extend to Series 2, or is it just Series 1?

Mike
 
It was the first year of ePack so the number is huge.

UD has been asked a number of times and will not answer. With McDavid driving the product it was a licence to print money.

I believe someone commented on the number of graded McDavid vs Crosby as a good way to pin point just how much production was increased that year. Not sure how accurate that is but we do know A LOT of S1 and S2 was made that year and following ePack years.
 
Is there a fundamental shift for the product starting with 2015-16? Does that affect how people price in Young Guns today?

In the case of McDavid, they could probably re-open the presses and they'd still sell for $300.
 
Thanks for the heads up, but I picked up one for that exact price earlier this morning.

So Panarin is selling for $25, and Kubalik is selling for that and more. Kubalik went from an $8-20 card instantly to $20-35 on the strength of yesterday's 5 point game. I like Kubalik, but isn't Panarin basically his maximum upside? Just goes to show how many Panarin YGs must exist.
 
deepbluejacket said:
Thanks for the heads up, but I picked up one for that exact price earlier this morning.

So Panarin is selling for $25, and Kubalik is selling for that and more. Kubalik went from an $8-20 card instantly to $20-35 on the strength of yesterday's 5 point game. I like Kubalik, but isn't Panarin basically his maximum upside? Just goes to show how many Panarin YGs must exist.
Click to expand...

Or it shows how reactionary people can be towards the new shiny thing. Just ask all the pre-McDavid superstars who have full trophy cases and a fraction of the YGs out there and still can't get any attention on the market.
 
A guy who just can't get any love is Ryan Getzlaf. Among active players, he ranks 8th in points and has a .916 PPG ratio. The only trophy he has is the Stanley Cup, but he's playing in the career shadow of Sidney Crosby and other centers like Thornton, Sedin, Malkin, and Stamkos. Even Datsyuk only has one end of season 2nd Team All-Star selection, so Getzlaf's 2013-14 selection was quite an accomplishment.

His YG is worth maybe $10.
 
deepbluejacket said:
A guy who just can't get any love is Ryan Getzlaf. Among active players, he ranks 8th in points and has a .916 PPG ratio. The only trophy he has is the Stanley Cup, but he's playing in the career shadow of Sidney Crosby and other centers like Thornton, Sedin, Malkin, and Stamkos. Even Datsyuk only has one end of season 2nd Team All-Star selection, so Getzlaf's 2013-14 selection was quite an accomplishment.

His YG is worth maybe $10.
Click to expand...

The datsyuk YG is a different story all together. Don't believe me? Just look at the pop report. The player in background version will end up being a $500 in due time if they grade.

As a disclosure, I have a psa 10 of both datsyuk YGs but I am hardly jaded. As primarily a YG collector, I own multiple copies of most of the more prominent YGs.
 
Me in 2017: man, there must be a bazillion of these McDavid Young Guns out there. I’ll sell all mine now for 350 and I’ll be laughing at all the suckers in a few years.

Me in 2020: man , McDavid Young Guns raw sell for 600. I wish I had one still. :(
 
JR said:
Me in 2017: man, there must be a bazillion of these McDavid Young Guns out there. I’ll sell all mine now for 350 and I’ll be laughing at all the suckers in a few years.

Me in 2020: man , McDavid Young Guns raw sell for 600. I wish I had one still. :(
Click to expand...

Pretty much this. There was someone selling a psa 10 YG and Canvas YG in psa 10 for $600 USD in about April of last year.

The YGs were in the $450-$500 range at the time so I found value in the Canvas. Pretty sure I could get close to the $600 on the canvas these days.
 
deepbluejacket said:
Thanks for the heads up, but I picked up one for that exact price earlier this morning.

So Panarin is selling for $25, and Kubalik is selling for that and more. Kubalik went from an $8-20 card instantly to $20-35 on the strength of yesterday's 5 point game. I like Kubalik, but isn't Panarin basically his maximum upside? Just goes to show how many Panarin YGs must exist.
Click to expand...

After the 2nd period of yesterday's game, I went on Ebay and COMC to check if there were any decently priced Kubalik's available (just because I knew he was going to have a near term upside). Within a minute of starting my search, all the $60ish USD Future Watches had sold on Ebay and all the lower price Young Guns were snatched up on COMC...and to think I was actually looking at buying his stuff last month...sigh.
As for Panarin, you can use the argument of over saturation for the Young Guns, but his Future Watch auto has only climbed slightly in the past year or so. His YG actually went up a little over the last couple of months, there was a time when you could pick them up in the teens.
 
Scott made a good point that it was the first year of ePack, so a ton of YGs flooded the market from there.

Also to build on that, the first year of ePack there was only a Foil parallel to combine things, which was 5 YG's to create a foil. Each year after 15/16 there's been a Rainbow or Speckle Foil parallel added, which essentially takes 25 YGs to combine. That could lead to slightly less YGs in the future years being available on the market.
 
geschrocks33 said:
Scott made a good point that it was the first year of ePack, so a ton of YGs flooded the market from there.

Also to build on that, the first year of ePack there was only a Foil parallel to combine things, which was 5 YG's to create a foil. Each year after 15/16 there's been a Rainbow or Speckle Foil parallel added, which essentially takes 25 YGs to combine. That could lead to slightly less YGs in the future years being available on the market.
Click to expand...


My question is what happened to all of the young guns that were combined for parallels. Does anyone on the planet really think that upper deck destroyed them.....


Pacman
 
Pacman69 said:
My question is what happened to all of the young guns that were combined for parallels. Does anyone on the planet really think that upper deck destroyed them.....


Pacman
Click to expand...

I assumed that the combined ones would be used for buyback type products. This way instead of actually having to buy them back they could just pull them out of COMC's storage (or where ever epack cards are stored) and just use those.
 
Pacman69 said:
My question is what happened to all of the young guns that were combined for parallels. Does anyone on the planet really think that upper deck destroyed them.....


Pacman
Click to expand...

They probably don't produce them all knowing that many will be used to get the parallels.
 
deepbluejacket said:
Thanks for the heads up, but I picked up one for that exact price earlier this morning.

So Panarin is selling for $25, and Kubalik is selling for that and more. Kubalik went from an $8-20 card instantly to $20-35 on the strength of yesterday's 5 point game. I like Kubalik, but isn't Panarin basically his maximum upside? Just goes to show how many Panarin YGs must exist.
Click to expand...

That's being generous. Kubalik is spiking at $60... from about $12. I wonder if it's going to tank as quickly as it spiked after being held pointless tonight?
 
Because he's already worth so much, it will be hard for McDavid to pull off this kind of real time spike. But man, he's sooooo good. 7 points in 2 games!
 
When does the run on Elvis YG's start? Still under USD $20 on COMC as of halfway through the 3rd tonight.
 

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