He's never going to go down as the greatest player of all time, but greatest goal scorer? Maybe he will. If he ends up with the all-time goal record (or at least gets really close to it.... without playing in the high scoring 80s) the argument will be there.
I hope he can pull it off. I'm not convinced the he can actually do it - because one of these years, you have to think he takes a step back. Of course he's not showing any signs of aging yet.... so maybe?
He's got 34 goals in 49 games this year. I'll undersell his pace, and suggest he scores another 18 before the end of the season. That puts him at 710, two ahead of Gartner, and 7th all time.
He only scored 33 in 2016-17, and 49 in 2017-18. He broke 50 in each of the other 4 seasons in the last 6... and is one pace to do that again. 5 50+ goal seasons in the last 7 years? How long can he keep that up?
He'll be 35 years old when next season starts, and for the sake of argument I'll go with my number from before.... he starts the 20-21 season 710 career goals. Can he average 50 a year, for another two years?
If he's starting the 22-23 season with 810 in his career, he'll already be 2nd in all time goals.... 37 years old, and 84 off the all time mark. That's where I think it gets dicey, as far as record chasing goes. Hypothetically: If he can score 50 at age 36, there's no reason to believe he's going to drop to 20 at age 37..... but what? when?
If he's 38 years old (entering the 23-34 season) and is 60 (or less) back of Gretzky.... then I think the record is his, if he wants it. Unless he completely falls a cliff... the idea that a 38-39-40 year old Ovechkin can bang out a few 25 goals seasons is VERY likely - if he wants to keep playing.
I'm not ready to call it inevitable yet. A day is coming when Ovechkin won't be a 50 goals scorer anymore.... or even a 40 goal scorer. If that's still three years away, yeah. He probably breaks the record. If that happens next year, or the year after, it's going to be hard.
