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DXFlyers said:
:laugh: That is a good one.
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Not that I'm in the market for any of the RC's, but what a huge letdown.

Pogge has been a career AHL goalie, and I guess people are still thinking back to his remarkable 05/6 season when putting him in sets. If the checklist was indeed put together in November, UD basically put him in based on the assumption that he'd be called up for an extended stint at some point in the year. He won a World Junior, but a pylon has a 50/50 shot at winning most games behind Team Canada at that tournament.

A previous poster already stated that he didn't play until December 22nd (his only win) and aside from that his best performance of the year came on March 27th when he stopped 14 of 15 shots in Buffalo after Curtis Joseph got lit up.

He was absolutely blasted in 7 NHL games this year, and his .844 Save % should leave him in question for the Victory RC list, let alone the Cup's SP RC /99 checklist.

Nobody can say that "his numbers are bad because the Leafs were bad." Columbus is an average team at best, and yet Steve Mason lasts 61 games, wins 33 and posts a ridiculous 10 shutouts and he gets overlooked?

I know it has been acknowledged as a mistake by UD, but they've got to step up during the pack-out and put an extra case hit in the Pogge cases. Don't tell me they can't do it.

Here's another idea... if a guy makes the November checklist but then gets blasted when he makes the NHL and torn apart by his GM and local media, PULL HIS CARDS FROM THE SET.

Just a post to stand up for the dude who buys a case and "hits" that gold mine.
 
I guess we can at least say UD's track record is decent. The last 3 Cups featured the Calder winner as a #/99. This is the first year they missed that mark. Try guessing the ROY in November, I bet its fairly difficult. Although I suppose they had some no brainer years (Ovy/Malkin), and a pretty easy shot the Toews, Price, Kane year.

Maybe we have been a little hard on UD, still I wouldn't want my case hit to be Pogge, who wouldn't even pay for 1 box. Coupling that with Toronto having some of the worst patch selection, makes for a tough pill to swallow.
 
05/6 - Phaneuf, Ovechkin, Crosby - All gems IMO.

06/7 - Staal, Kessel, Malkin, Stastny, Kopitar, Radulov - All awesome, Radulov was in the top tier of developing prospects when he left for the KHL, can't fault them there.

07/8 - Kane, Gagner, Backstrom, Tlusty, Price, Toews - How Tlusty got in there I have no clue. Gagner has fallen off a bit, but has serious potential.

09/9 - Stamkos, Wheeler, Pogge, Schenn, Doughty, Turris - TWO Leafs?!?! Why? Schenn is solid, but he's a stay at home defenseman and isn't going to be an enormous seller. I guess it is a case of trying to force-feed a Toronto market that is starving for a star player to collect.

Another note: UD has doubled up on the RCs /99 - is there a reason to SP rookies who are not in the top of their class?
 
OK, so far Jeremy has spent a ton of his own time and money taking these pics, sharing stories, and offering some inside info and all most of you can do is whine about the RC checklist... Pathetic really.

Jeremy - Thanks for all of your efforts!!! You are da man.:beer: Mike
 
MGiuseffi1969 said:
OK, so far Jeremy has spent a ton of his own time and money taking these pics, sharing stories, and offering some inside info and all most of you can do is whine about the RC checklist... Pathetic really.

Jeremy - Thanks for all of your efforts!!! You are da man.:beer: Mike
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We are all very appreciative of his hard work, and nobody has said anything to the contrary. It is a great thing for the hobby that this year's Cup release will be fully documented.

There's nothing wrong with discussing the RC checklist - the info Jeremy has shared with us is new and of course the inclusion of Pogge was going to be a point of interest.
 
NJDEVILS30 said:
Another note: UD has doubled up on the RCs /99 - is there a reason to SP rookies who are not in the top of their class?
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Agreed that increasing the /99 rookie numbers, especially in successive years where the rookie class is worse and worse is something I do not like, it ruins the mystic of the whole thing. However I also do not like the fact that the commoners were ballooned from 199 to 249.

Also I think that Jeremy is doing a heck of a job, and an invaluable service. However us as collectors shouldn't be shunned by others for discussing the checklist. We are merely providing our honest opinion which hopefully Upper Deck can take and improve on their products. As a whole it seems like with the CBC, and TSN, Upper Deck is now trying to force feed us Maple Leafs as well. I am sure most, except Leafs fans, won't like it, but such is life.
 
NJDEVILS30 said:
Wow, Pogge a /99? The only case hit to ever be worth $60 in Cup history...
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Rookies limited to 99 are not a case hit in The Cup.

As someone who has broken more than 7 sealed, 6-pack cases without one, I can tell you this confidently. The math just isn't favorable.

In 2005-06, your odds of a rookie out of 99 in any given tin were 297 to 15323, or roughly, 1 out of every 52 tins (1 in 9, 6-tin cases)

In 2006-07, your odds of a rookie out of 99 in any given tin were 594 to 14617, or roughly, 1 out of every 25 tins (1 in 4, 6-tin cases)

In 2007-08, your odds of a rookie out of 99 in any given tin were 594 to 16434, or roughly, 1 out of every 28 tins (1 in 5, 6-tin cases)

In other words, don't break The Cup hoping for one of those /99 rookies - especially with this year's class. Break it for the hard-signed autographs and attractive subsets. Or, just plain ignore it like me :)

-m.
 
2fnlo said:
I guess we can at least say UD's track record is decent. The last 3 Cups featured the Calder winner as a #/99. This is the first year they missed that mark. Try guessing the ROY in November, I bet its fairly difficult. Although I suppose they had some no brainer years (Ovy/Malkin), and a pretty easy shot the Toews, Price, Kane year.

Maybe we have been a little hard on UD, still I wouldn't want my case hit to be Pogge, who wouldn't even pay for 1 box. Coupling that with Toronto having some of the worst patch selection, makes for a tough pill to swallow.
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Actually, if you were picking the 2006-07 Calder winner in November, Jordan Staal would have been your choice.

Mason's success surprised those who were following him, so given that, I can actually defend just about all the decisions UD made for the /99 checklist. Plus, the patches on all just about all Blue Jackets cards should be gorgeous.

Last, can we stop calling RCs out of 99 the "case hit"?

-m.
 
Okay, one more dig. Did anyone pay any attention to Tlusty's season in the AHL this past year? He played very strong in the same metro area that treated him like a darling, and then pissed all over him last year.

Personally, I'm of a "buy" view on Tlusty. He's only 21, and he now has a solid season of AHL hockey behind him.

-m.
 
pathshot said:
Okay, one more dig. Did anyone pay any attention to Tlusty's season in the AHL this past year? He played very strong in the same metro area that treated him like a darling, and then pissed all over him last year.

Personally, I'm of a "buy" view on Tlusty. He's only 21, and he now has a solid season of AHL hockey behind him.

-m.
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I saw Tlusty play in a couple of games with the Marlies last year - one of them was a really high scoring game and I believe he had 3 points. I think he'll be a decent player, and he'll get another shot... especially with the Leafs current lack of depth up front.

Any info on the Brodeur stuff you've seen in the pack-out? If he is signing 552W on everything, I might as well have a mild heart attack now rather than wait for some of the prices on his stuff.

Does Elias have a lot of cards?

What about Zach Parise - is he signing for this, or are us Devils collectors "saved"?

Thanks to Gomaz - if he had a Cup RC, I would not dispute its being /99. :)
 
pathshot said:
Rookies limited to 99 are not a case hit in The Cup.

As someone who has broken more than 7 sealed, 6-pack cases without one, I can tell you this confidently. The math just isn't favorable.

In 2005-06, your odds of a rookie out of 99 in any given tin were 297 to 15323, or roughly, 1 out of every 52 tins (1 in 9, 6-tin cases)

In 2006-07, your odds of a rookie out of 99 in any given tin were 594 to 14617, or roughly, 1 out of every 25 tins (1 in 4, 6-tin cases)

In 2007-08, your odds of a rookie out of 99 in any given tin were 594 to 16434, or roughly, 1 out of every 28 tins (1 in 5, 6-tin cases)

In other words, don't break The Cup hoping for one of those /99 rookies - especially with this year's class. Break it for the hard-signed autographs and attractive subsets. Or, just plain ignore it like me :)

-m.
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Interesting analysis. But I think you are wrong in saying "Rookies limited to 99 are not a case hit in The Cup." You analysis shows that there are many cases that have something as a case hit other than a /99 RC (as there aren't enough of them to go around). But that doesn't mean that those that have a /99 RC aren't the case hit. In fact, I would bet they are. I personally have only opened one case. Last year's Cup. My case hit was definitely a Price /99 RC. My next best card value was less than $150. Sure /99 RCs aren't the only case hits, but I would bet in 90%+ of cases that have them, they are. So, here's hoping the guys at UD this year, don't consider the Pogge /99 a case hit, and have another extra special card in those cases.
 
gomaz said:
Wow guys! And that wasn't a good "wow".

Myself and the UD guys have been talking about the Pogge thing all day.

The reason for it is because they had to determine the checklist in November (not print the cards lol).

They are as unthrilled as we are, with the choice now. But they are also unthrilled with their lotto number choices from Saturday. Hindsight, people.

Karvin would love to be able to go back and change out Pogge to Mason, or Filatov or Voracek etc. But he can't.

Anyway, I will start another thread with a pic from today and a quick update. And please, stop this Pogge nonsense. As Bruce said, such is life. And if any of us could go back, I'm sure we'd all adjust a few of the decisions we'd made.
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I'm not trying to start the BS train BUT if I'm not mistaken Justin Pogge didn't dress in an NHL game until January sometime.

I could be wrong and if I am please correct me. If I am right though.......wtf
 
bkrysko said:
I'm not trying to start the BS train BUT if I'm not mistaken Justin Pogge didn't dress in an NHL game until January sometime.

I could be wrong and if I am please correct me. If I am right though.......wtf
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I think he actually dressed before January but did not get into a game... Otherwise he would not have had any RC's this year. Perhaps I am mistaken. I thought it was like Al Montoya in 05-06. He never played a minute but dressed as the backup for a game or two early in the season, thus he was eligible for an NHL RC that year. He didn't actually play until this past season. That said, I think Pogge was the same. Pretty sure he dressed well before he actually played making him RC eligible.
 
Skaters must play in a game to be considered an NHL Rookie.

Goalies must only dress and be on the bench - but do not have to play a single second.


You are correct Mike.

Someone will have to see at what point Pogge DRESSED for Toronto.

And to give up on a 20 year old is just so typical of why certain teams are doomed to their current place in the NHL pecking order. Instead of developing their talent ... they throw them out to the wolves and then when they get their proverbial heads handed to them in the first year of their career - they abandon them.

And goalies - are pretty much NEVER ready at the age of 19-22 !!!!

Just my thoughts on that!!

bruce
 
Yeah, I checked NHL.com but they only state when he first played which was Early February but I'm over 50% sure he did not dress anytime in November.
 

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